US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

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LONDON/ATHENS, July 15 (Reuters) - Shipping companies are avoiding using a U.S. military-guided transit scheme through the Strait of Hormuz after a wave of Iranian attacks on vessels sparked safety concerns, seven maritime security and shipping industry sources said.

For decades ships sailed into and out of the Gulf using a safe set of lanes down the middle of the strait established by the U.N.’s shipping agency in 1968 dubbed the Traffic Separation Scheme.

Since the Iran war began on February 28, Iranian forces have mined this area, forcing vessels to use one of two makeshift routes close to either the Iranian or Omani coast.

HELPING GULF ENERGY EXPORTS KEEP FLOWING

In June, Reuters reported that the U.S. military had helped vessels through as part of an operation involving scores of secretive ship-to-ship oil transfers to keep Gulf energy exports flowing, using aerial and water drones as well as helicopters to guide tankers.

The U.S.-assisted initiative enabled the export of tens of millions of barrels of oil, helping dampen the impact on energy prices of the largest-ever disruption in oil and gas supplies.

Yet shippers are evaluating the route on the Omani side of the strait as increasingly dangerous after a wave of attacks on ships.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards on Tuesday claimed responsibility for attacks on two Emirati oil supertankers.

Some five ships have been attacked since July 7 – three crude supertankers, one LNG tanker and one container ship – in Omani waters that fell under the U.S. scheme, according to analysis of incidents based on data from the U.N.'s shipping agency.

It was unclear if all the ships were sailing under the U.S. scheme, the sources said.

"The U.S. doesn't seem to have any control over the situation," one shipping source said, adding that their company had opted not to sail through the strait due to crew safety concerns and the deteriorating security situation.

"Iran’s continued ability to target ships sailing through the Omani route means the Trump administration’s proposed solution to keep ships moving is unlikely to work," said Torbjorn Solvedt, principal Middle East analyst with risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
 
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So it looks like US is softening IRGC coastal defenses and offensive capabilities so that when US starts heavy bombardment, which will likely include Israel, IRGC won't have the capability to disrupt shipping on the Strait... at least that is what the strategy looks like.

I think Tehran, strategic infrastructure and leadership will be on the list when heavy bombing starts.
 
SolarWarden said:
So it looks like US is softening IRGC coastal defenses and offensive capabilities so that when US starts heavy bombardment, which will likely include Israel, IRGC won't have the capability to disrupt shipping on the Strait... at least that is what the strategy looks like.

I think Tehran, strategic infrastructure and leadership will be on the list when heavy bombing starts.
Click to expand...
Or, it may be more along the lines of the devil went down to Georgia:

"just sit right there son, let me show ya' how it's done".
 
SolarWarden said:
So it looks like US is softening IRGC coastal defenses and offensive capabilities so that when US starts heavy bombardment, which will likely include Israel, IRGC won't have the capability to disrupt shipping on the Strait... at least that is what the strategy looks like.

I think Tehran, strategic infrastructure and leadership will be on the list when heavy bombing starts.
Click to expand...

As I pointed out earlier, uncontested control of the skies is a huge advantage for the side that dominates the area of operations.
 
The US continues to strike Ahvaz which is home to Irans 92nd Armored Division.
 
U.S. Forces Disable Non-Compliant Vessel in Arabian Gulf

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. forces enforced naval blockade measures against Iran, July 15, by disabling an unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port in the Arabian Gulf.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces observed Curacao-flagged M/T Belma transiting international waters toward Kharg Island. The commercial vessel ignored multiple warnings as it attempted to violate the U.S. blockade. A U.S. aircraft disabled the vessel after firing hellfire missiles into the ship’s smokestack. The ship is no longer transiting to Iran.

U.S. forces resumed the naval blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. ET on July 14. During the first 24 hours of enforcement, CENTCOM has redirected two compliant commercial vessels and disabled one non-compliant vessel.

U.S. forces remain vigilant and prepared to ensure full compliance.

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