US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[KingQamaR]

Why the ‘Tehran tollbooth’ will never work​

Iran’s so-called “Tehran tollbooth” threatens to make the restoration of normal oil and gas supplies from the Gulf impossible.

Experts have said the plan – to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they undertake an Iranian inspection – would see the number of ships reduced to a trickle compared to pre-war levels, given the physical constraints involved.

The high risks mean many ship owners may also boycott the tollbooth altogether, leaving the Strait effectively shut.

Late on Thursday night, Donald Trump accused Iran of “doing a very poor job” of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz, writing on Truth Social: “that is not the agreement we have”.

He added: “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait. They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said it will allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they hug Iran’s shoreline and undergo scrutiny by military authorities.

Ships would be diverted between the islands of Qeshm and Larak, forcing traffic through an extremely narrow choke point only a few miles across.

The lane has been called the Tehran tollbooth as a key part of inspections would be ensuring ships have paid a fee to Iran.
Iran is believed to be charging a “toll” of at least $1 (£0.7) per barrel of oil – or $2m per ship for the largest tankers – depending on the perceived friendliness of a vessel’s home country.

That could generate Tehran an estimated $500bn – or £373bn – over the next five years.

Around 120 vessels that Iran permitted through the Strait during the weeks of conflict are believed to have used the route.

However, Lloyd’s List, a shipping intelligence publication, estimates that up to 700 oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers and cargo ships remain stuck in the Gulf.

That is too many to be extricated during the current two-week ceasefire. Many ship operators may be reluctant to risk the journey, analysts at Lloyd’s List said.

Fears of ‘hazardous’ path​

The narrowness of the waterway would increase the risk of collisions and groundings involving 1,000ft tankers that can carry two million barrels of oil and take three nautical miles to stop.

Forcing ships through the narrow waterway also threatens to overwhelm navigation systems, which track signals from nearby ships. Other dangers include uncoordinated changes of direction that could cause chaotic chain reactions.

Richard Meade, of Lloyd’s List, said: “We need to temper expectations in terms of what is feasible. It is going to be a slow return to normalcy even in the best case scenario, which as of now we don’t have.”

The publication warned that plans for reopening the Strait must be carefully coordinated to avoid collisions, especially if the tollbooth model is retained.
As part of its bid to control the Strait, Iran published a map showing permitted shipping lanes passing around Larak Island, close to the Iranian mainland.

The map included a no-go zone marked as “hazardous” occupying the whole of the middle of the Strait – normally used by transiting vessels.

It was accompanied by a warning of the likely presence of “various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone”. It added that the specified “alternative transit route” should be used until further notice to “avoid potential collision with naval mines”.

Peter Sand, a container shipping analyst at logistics specialist Xeneta, said whether Iran had really mined the main shipping lanes in the middle of the waterway was largely irrelevant.

“They have said that the Strait is impassable and whether we believe there are mines or not, it is the threat that matters,” he said.
Saeed Khatibzadeh, the deputy foreign minister of Iran, told ITV News: “The Strait of Hormuz is open. Of course, there are technical restrictions because of the war zone and because of many arrangements Iran did during the war.

“This is why all the ships that would like to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have to communicate with the army and military. We have to be very careful for the safety and security of tankers and vessels.

“Whoever communicates, we provide safe passage through safe channels that we have.”

Mr Trump has meanwhile demanded that Western states make “concrete” pledges to deploy warships in the Strait following a meeting with Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general, German media reported.

The US president has previously appeared to be attracted by the idea of operating the tollbooth system himself, rather than opening up free passage.

“What about us charging toll?” he said this week. “I’d rather do that than let them have them. Why shouldn’t we? We’re the winner.”

The Iranian map indicates that westbound vessels would need to use a five-mile gap between Larak Island and the larger Qeshm Island to the west.

Mr Sand said the system would not be able to cope with the 125 ships a day that made the transit pre-war.

He said: “They are creating an artificial bottleneck. It’s a far narrower passage and it’s not divided inbound and outbound. You can’t perform the amount of shipping that used to go via the Strait only within those territorial waters.

“They have set this up to make it more complicated and ensure that they are in absolute control. They’d rather say ‘no’ to a vessel if they are in doubt – but then they are at war and the normal rules are on the side.”

‘Is this possible?’​

Bridget Diakun, a senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List, said that ships attempting to take the Larak Island route during the conflict had often done so in a chaotic fashion.

She said: “We’re seeing ships taking u-turns and waiting for permission to be granted, including a Russian cargo ship which had to wait about a week and two liquid natural gas carriers linked to Qatar which ended up turning around.

“The question people are asking is: is this possible, can Iran effectively control the Strait? It’s a scary prospect but I don’t know how we return to so-called normal now that this is in place.”

Lloyd’s List said the detour around Larak Island required each vessel to seek clearance via an agent in Iran, with permission granted on a case-by-case basis.
Documentation must be supplied detailing the ship’s seven-digit International Maritime Organization number, its ownership, cargo manifest, destination, financing and a full crew list. The naval arm of the IRGC then conducts cargo checks and “geopolitical vetting”.

Countries known to have negotiated safe passage with Iran include Iraq, Pakistan, Japan, China, Malaysia, Oman and India, which has sent warships to escort vessels.

Just three ships transited the Strait on Wednesday as of 4pm with another three aiming to do so, all headed east. That was a lower total than even at the height of hostilities, according to Mr Meade.

He said: “Hopes of an imminent reopening have been pretty much dashed at the moment. There is very little moving.

“The ceasefire has left ship owners waiting on the sidelines with fewer vessels passing through the Strait than during the fiercest days of fighting. The new bit is the mines – that is deeply concerning.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/10/why-the-tehran-tollbooth-will-never-work/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_tw_post_tehran-tollbooth-will-never-work/

The toll being paid in Chinese yuan is yet another nail in the coffin for the dollar.


Good.

 

[F-22Raptor]

First stage of grief

DENIAL

What countries or shipping companies will approve this? Iran doesn’t get tolls if ships aren’t moving through the Strait. The US barely uses the Strait. The effect is minimal on us. Brent crude is elevated at $95, but that’s not critical to the US economy. Brent crude averaged over $90 five of the last 15 years. Over $80 in seven. It’s not the leverage you think it is.

 

[F-22Raptor]

The toll being paid in Chinese yuan is yet another nail in the coffin for the dollar.


Good.

What toll? Only 15 ships have passed through the Strait in the last 3 days, 4 of those being tankers. Wishcasting won’t get you anywhere

 

[KingQamaR]

What toll? Only 15 ships have passed through the Strait in the last 3 days, 4 of those being tankers. Wishcasting won’t get you anywhere

WTF ? Keep crying ?

Last time I checked Trump wanted the “fucking strait of Hormuz , opened ” an iran isn’t playing ball.

 

[KingQamaR]

Remember, Iran was not collecting tolls prior to the war. If Trump had simply not gone to war, Iran would not have confirmed its ability to close the strait.

 

[F-22Raptor]

WTF ? Keep crying ?

Last time I checked Trump wanted the “fucking strait of Hormuz , opened ” an iran isn’t playing ball.

Iran is violating the ceasefire agreement to open the Strait with no tolls. That was the deal, they lied. Remember, the war isn’t over.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Iran is violating the ceasefire agreement to open the Strait with no tolls. That was the deal, they lied. Remember, the war isn’t over.

Let me fix that for you ....

USA and Israel is violating the ceasefire agreement to not implement the ceasefire in Lebanon. That was the deal, they lied. Remember, the war isn’t over.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Remember, Iran was not collecting tolls prior to the war. If Trump had simply not gone to war, Iran would not have confirmed its ability to close the strait.

If we hadn’t gone to war, cost of inaction would have lead to a 2030 nuclear armed Iran shielded by 10,000+ ballistic missiles and 100K+ drones. A North Korea scenario with Iran attaining regional hegemony through its proxies and threat of nuclear war.

That was completely unacceptable, hence the war and our core strategic military objectives being successfully met.

 

[KingQamaR]

Iran is violating the ceasefire agreement to open the Strait with no tolls. That was the deal, they lied. Remember, the war isn’t over.

ALI_ Baba is correct.
The cease fire included Lebanon, not shocking that the strait is closed.
Is must be exhausting to have to try and defend Trump He has f up.

 

[mythbuster]

If you leave aside he said she said arguments and care to know the bottom line , here it's ! There will be no toll on shipping in Hormuz..... Hezbollah will be disarmed ...no nukes for Iran ..

That's the deal..rest minor issues will be ironed out .

 

[Davey Crockett]

 

[SolarWarden]

If you leave aside he said she said arguments and care to know the bottom line , here it's ! There will be no toll on shipping in Hormuz..... Hezbollah will be disarmed ...no nukes for Iran ..

That's the deal..rest minor issues will be ironed out .

Well those will be the conditions from the US the question is will Iran agree? Does Iran have the stomach for 2-3 weeks of heavy bombing that will likely leave them in the dark for a very long time?

It would be insane for Iran to agree to these conditions only after getting bombed again might as well accept the conditions now and claim victory. Iran should think to themselves in 3 years Orangeman will be gone and the US might elect another weak president like Obumer and Biden. Israel by then may have a liberal PM after Bibi and Iran can decide to cheat on the deal taking a chance Israel will not attack.

 

[Davey Crockett]

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[mythbuster]

Well those will be the conditions from the US the question is will Iran agree? Does Iran have the stomach for 2-3 weeks of heavy bombing that will likely leave them in the dark for a very long time?

It would be insane for Iran to agree to these conditions only after getting bombed again might as well accept the conditions now and claim victory. Iran should think to themselves in 3 years Orangeman will be gone and the US might elect another weak president like Obumer and Biden. Israel by then may have a liberal PM after Bibi and Iran can decide to cheat on the deal taking a chance Israel will not attack.

Iran is in a blind alley, she has no room left to manoeuvre.....Iran has , in essence , accepted the American conditions.... this meeting in Islamabad is just a show for the galleries and will give some face-saving to Iranians .

 

[KAL-EL]

ALI_ Baba is correct.
The cease fire included Lebanon, not shocking that the strait is closed.
Is must be exhausting to have to try and defend Trump He has f up.

I get the feeling this is going to keep going back and forth. Have to say it's a five-star fraggin disaster and f****** exhausting.