US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[ShapurII]

If it has an opening that has been detected then it's pretty vulnerable.

Fordow had ventilation shafts. The US targeted them with 14 GBU-57s and assessment even by the US intelligence community is that the attack was not completely successful. Now make this one twice more difficult.

 

[Shags101]

There are still quite a few Hawks surrounding Trump.

It seems like in Iran the diplomats want a cease fire but some of the Hawks maybe in the IRGC won't go for it.

I know that but whose front and center honestly if it’s Marco Rubio that’s sad he’s not fanatical enough or charismatic to get people’s attention

 

[SolarWarden]

I suppose in the coming days the strikes on Iran will become heavier as B52s, B1s and B2s are used also Tehran will become a huge target? It also looks like Israel will commence air operations over Iran in coming days?

 

[ShapurII]

I suppose in the coming days the strikes on Iran will become heavier as B52s, B1s and B2s are used also Tehran will become a huge target? It also looks like Israel will commence air operations over Iran in coming days?

Yeah, I have a feeling that all this mess is a prelude to something bigger soon.

However, I doubt the US would attempt a ground invasion of Iran in the next couple of weeks though. Temperature in the south of Iran is already approaching 45C-50C with 80% humidity. It is impossible to invade the southern parts of Iran without proper logistics and medical care on the ground. And needless to say that with the rise of FPVs and Iran's missiles and drones, it is extremely difficult to provide your troops with food, water, ice and field hospitals to operate in such weather.

 

[SolarWarden]

Yeah, I have a feeling that all this mess is a prelude to something bigger soon.

However, I doubt the US would attempt a ground invasion of Iran in the next couple of weeks though. Temperature in the south of Iran is already approaching 45C-50C with 80% humidity. It is impossible to invade the southern parts of Iran without proper logistics and medical care on the ground. And needless to say that with the rise of FPVs and Iran's missiles and drones, it is extremely difficult to provide your troops with food, water, ice and field hospitals to operate in such weather.

No troops but special operations inside Iran or Islands I can see that happening.

 

[ShapurII]

No troops but special operations inside Iran or Islands I can see that happening.

To do what? What can the US achieve by "special operations" in Iranian islands if it doesn't mean to invade them? What would be the potential objectives of such special operations without having troops there?

There's nothing there but excessive heat and firsthand experience of having your friends or even worse yourself killed lol

 

[j_hungary]

Yup and locally, gasoline prices saw a slight upward bump.

5 bucks up since last time I posted. This isn't going to be a slight upward bump.....unless something happened or is happening, they are going back up to 90 probably in 2 days.

 

[ShapurII]

5 bucks up since last time I posted. This isn't going to be a slight upward bump.....unless something happened or is happening, they are going back up to 90 probably in 2 days.

View attachment 206122

Dude, let's not cap ourselves to $90 per barrel. Let's hope for something even cooler. Like $120 per barrel, or even $150 per barrel when shit hits the fan (fingers crossed).

Personally, I think $200 per barrel is a pretty cool number. Not only it's fair, because the US dollar has devalued significantly in recent years and oil prices should be adjusted for inflation, but because war and turmoil in the world's energy artery should mean something after all. Otherwise, all the economic theories they have taught us so far have to be rethought and that'd be too much relearning and boring.

 

[j_hungary]

Because it's nonsense that's why.

There are absolutely pointless to have a meeting with a bunch of G2 and NSA guys, at this point it's easier to basically point out which targets they had not hit than getting a target package, every one of them in the list had probably already hit more than twice, I don't think anyone can find a way to make Iran hurt......

 

[j_hungary]

Dude, let's not cap ourselves to $90 per barrel. Let's hope for something even cooler. Like $120 per barrel, or even $150 per barrel when shit hits the fan (fingers crossed).

100 maybe, 120 is very unlikely, and a lot have to happen to have oil price gone up to 150 (again, crude price, not refine price)

If the oil price goes over $100, Trump would have to open both pipeline and strategic reserve, and he would probably need to beg Canada to do the same too. And no one in the West wanted to have $150 a barrel, US, Canada and North Sea alone can put the price down, just whether or not Canada and Norway want to do it is the question.

That is the reason why at no point oil is over $120 over the entire course of war, they barely move above $110

 

[mythbuster]

Yeah, I have a feeling that all this mess is a prelude to something bigger soon.

However, I doubt the US would attempt a ground invasion of Iran in the next couple of weeks though. Temperature in the south of Iran is already approaching 45C-50C with 80% humidity. It is impossible to invade the southern parts of Iran without proper logistics and medical care on the ground. And needless to say that with the rise of FPVs and Iran's missiles and drones, it is extremely difficult to provide your troops with food, water, ice and field hospitals to operate in such weather.

Smugness , complacency and hubris has been your Achilles heel...now you are banking on world economy to go into the dive , oil prices to shoot up and oil reserves to deplete ... Do you really believe inhospitable terrain and weather will give you the protection you are looking for ? .... first of all , there is no urgent need for ground invasion , your entire defense in the south will be decimated from a distance.... ground invasion if needed will take place after flattening out everything.... there's high probability you will cave before that happens.

 

[ShapurII]

100 maybe, 120 is very unlikely, and a lot have to happen to have oil price gone up to 150 (again, crude price, not refine price)

If the oil price goes over $100, Trump would have to open both pipeline and strategic reserve, and he would probably need to beg Canada to do the same too. And no one in the West wanted to have $150 a barrel, US, Canada and North Sea alone can put the price down, just whether or not Canada and Norway want to do it is the question.

That is the reason why at no point oil is over $120 over the entire course of war, they barely move above $110

Brent Crude did temporarily hit $118 during the war, albeit for a short time. So, $120 is not that unlikely if the war resumes like this for a while.

$150 is possible only if threats of going for oil/energy infrastructure of Iran and the Persian Gulf Arab states materialize. I can absolutely see oil prices hit $150 if Iran targets oil production facilities in the Persian Gulf region. Let's not forget that none of the Iranian attacks up to now have destroyed or permanently affected oil production so far. Only one Iranian attack had long-lasting effects and that was on Qatar's LNG production.

$200 is probably not possible. Not unless something really huge happens. Like besides hitting oil production facilities in the Persian Gulf region, Iran and its allies start to target random oil tankers too.

 

[ShapurII]

Smugness , complacency and hubris has been your Achilles heel...now you are banking on world economy to go into the dive , oil prices to shoot up and oil reserves to deplete ... Do you really believe inhospitable terrain and weather will give you the protection you are looking for ? .... first of all , there is no urgent need for ground invasion , your entire defense in the south will be decimated from a distance.... ground invasion if needed will take place after flattening out everything.... there's high probability you will cave before that happens.

Yes, I really believe inhospitable terrain and weather, as well as economic factors, will give us the protection we are looking for. It has been the case so far. However, I think the final solution is completely different. We need some hardliners to take over and build the damn bomb and then play the madman and bully the entire region with nukes. That's what I would've gone for anyway.

The US attacks have proven to be not that effective. They're hitting targets they have already hit before multiple times. It means their list of targets has been exhausted and they do not have a military plan anymore. Decimating our entire defense in the south is useless if they do not want to bank on the opportunity of invading Iran. So, that's not a very fruitful strategy either.

There's a very low probability that the Islamic Republic would cave in easily. If the assassination of Khamenei didn't lead to anything major, targeting the same communication antennas in the south for the 10th time is not going to change anything either.

 

[j_hungary]

Brent Crude did temporarily hit $118 during the war, albeit for a short time. So, $120 is not that unlikely if the war resumes like this for a while.

$150 is possible only if threats of going for oil/energy infrastructure of Iran and the Persian Gulf Arab states materialize. I can absolutely see oil prices hit $150 if Iran targets oil production facilities in the Persian Gulf region. Let's not forget that none of the Iranian attacks up to now have destroyed or permanently affected oil production so far. Only one Iranian attack had long-lasting effects and that was on Qatar's LNG production.

$200 is probably not possible. Not unless something really huge happens. Like besides hitting oil production facilities in the Persian Gulf region, Iran and its allies start to target random oil tankers too.

Was talking about WTI price, Americans don't really care how much the Brits are paying for their oil....

$150 is "Possible" at a time when everything is possible. To reach that level, you need certain things to go this way.

1.) Canada and Norway do not increase their production
2.) The rest of the West does not intervene (either sending ships to escort the tanker out or come up with some insurance plan)
3.) Iran has to escalate the war and attack or close the Red Sea traffic as well (currently, the Red Sea diverts about 20-30% of Gulf oil with the Yanbu pipeline; the last figure I had is close to 6 million barrels a day)
4.) Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to do absolutely nothing.

If all 4 things has done, then we may see a $150 a barrel price, that is very hard to do, I would say it's less than 10%

 

[mythbuster]

Yes, I really believe inhospitable terrain and weather, as well as economic factors, will give us the protection we are looking for. It has been the case so far. However, I think the final solution is completely different. We need some hardliners to take over and build the damn bomb and then play the madman and bully the entire region with nukes. That's what I would've gone for anyway.

The US attacks have proven to be not that effective. They're hitting targets they have already hit before multiple times. It means their list of targets has been exhausted and they do not have a military plan anymore. Decimating our entire defense in the south is useless if they do not want to bank on the opportunity of invading Iran. So, that's not a very fruitful strategy either.

There's a very low probability that the Islamic Republic would cave in easily. If the assassination of Khamenei didn't lead to anything major, targeting the same communication antennas in the south for the 10th time is not going to change anything either.

It seems you have a cozy cocoon.