The day after tomorrow, Monday, August 24, 2026, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent will hold a major press conference to announce the details and executive mechanisms for the “economic landing” operation against Iran. But the biggest and shocking surprise in this move lies in Trump’s direct threat to punish and paralyze the economies and institutions of countries that are historically classified as “ally” of Washington if they give Tehran any financial or commercial lifeline.
I wonder which allied countries will be affected by Trump’s sanctions or pressure?
I will present to you some of my expectations based on my reading of the scene, and whoever has other expectations that differ or agree with mine, please share them with us.
Will the sanctions affect Iraq?
Yes, Iraq is a major target and in the heart of the storm, despite the strategic and security partnership between Baghdad and Washington, Iraq has become classified in the eyes of the current US administration as the largest financial loophole loyal to Iran through shadow cash networks, which made the US Treasury begin early with surgical steps that included imposing severe sanctions on senior officials and companies on charges of falsifying invoices and merging Iranian oil with Iraqi to leak it to global markets, amid expectations that more Iraqi banks will be isolated after the US Treasury Secretary’s announcement next Monday.
Who are the other allied countries that will be affected by sanctions or pressure?
Washington is moving to impose “secondary sanctions” that will force its historical allies to choose between trade with America or completely isolating Iran. The most prominent of these countries are:
The United Arab Emirates is a historical ally, and is considered the lung and largest financial center for Iranian trade. Under the weight of recent American threats, the UAE proactively and suddenly announced the imposition of an indefinite trade embargo with Tehran, and is currently preparing to implement gradual financial restrictions that are fully in line with Monday’s package to avoid clashing with Trump.
- The Sultanate of Oman is the threatened historical mediator, as Oman faces unprecedented threats and offensive rhetoric from Trump due to its role in mediating and managing negotiations with Tehran regarding the operation of the closed Strait of Hormuz, and Washington has warned it of the consequences of providing any facilities that violate the imposed naval blockade.
- The State of Qatar is the critical financial mediator and coordinator, as Doha faces intense and direct American pressure, not related to traditional trade, but rather to two strategic files: the first is the giant “North Field” of gas shared with Iran and the technical and financial coordination it requires, and the second is Qatar’s historical role as a “host and monitor” of the frozen Iranian assets released in previous exchange deals, as the Trump administration is pressing to close parallel humanitarian disbursement channels and refreeze any financial paths under supervision. Aggravating. Personally, I do not think that these pressures will reach the point of imposing direct sanctions on Doha, but rather will be limited to firm American demands to completely freeze these accounts and files to avoid any political clash.
Türkiye is a member of NATO and a swing trade ally. Ankara has extensive land borders and huge trade networks with Iran. Washington is putting it under the microscope, and the US Treasury recently imposed sanctions on Turkish companies on charges of helping Tehran obtain ballistic technology and alternative financial paths.
What about China and Asian countries?
Although China is not an ally of Washington, it is Iran's largest trading partner and buys about 90% of its oil. Does the threat affect it?!!
Personally, I do not think that the sanctions will affect China itself, that is, the Chinese government or the Chinese state. I imagine that the sanctions will affect Chinese entities and companies, as usual, as there are always sanctions against them, given that Beijing adopts the tactic of expendable front companies to pass deals and military technology to Tehran.
But the greatest irony is that America's traditional allies in East Asia, such as Japan, are being severely affected, without direct sanctions, as a result of the dominoes in this economic war, the violent pressures on the US debt and currency market, and the decline of the yen, given that Tokyo is Washington's largest creditor and depends entirely on importing energy, the prices of which skyrocket with the closure of the straits.
The threat of direct “secondary sanctions” extends to India, America’s strategic ally, due to its investments and management of the Iranian port of Chabahar and its alternative trade networks, in addition to South Korea’s demand that America maintain strict control over the freezing of Iranian billions in its banks and prevent any parallel financial settlements.
In light of this complex scene, Pakistan stands out in a very sensitive position, and despite the difficulty of imposing direct sanctions on its government given its decisive role as a “diplomatic mediator” in negotiations and taking care of interests, pressures and threats are pursuing it strongly to force it to control and close its vast land borders with Tehran, which is one of the vital corridors that shadow mafias exploit to smuggle goods and cash away from international oversight.
In fact, we are facing a new and harsh American equation that the Trump administration clearly summarized: The time for maneuvering has ended, and all allies must immediately choose between preserving their huge interests with the American economy or facing the destructive force of Treasury sanctions and completely withdrawing from the world alongside Tehran.
