AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #9,226
US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War
- Thread starter AZ_HighCountry
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AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #9,227
You know how some of the crowd here is.
Shags202
Trusted Member
3.89 still in south Florida by the time it actually starts to drop it will have gone up faster than it had dropped
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
Where do you live again? Just asking for a friend.. lol
Shags202
Trusted Member
It’s still 3.89 here dont even ask about diesel training day for the new guy it’s funny so this past two weeks when we go over pricing for sales all my stores have noticed something my company raises prices on all sales items that were supposed to be for this month I have all of these companies showing me prices that should have been cheaper for this month but was raised because of gas prices a dollar a case adds up real quick
Shags202
Trusted Member
Vance is definitely odd man out he’s just been castrated he’s being sent on a wild goose chase
www.nytimes.com
Same post I put in the Iran thread but it looks like trump definitely didn’t like Vance talking out of line it looks like his 2028 run is just about done for
Trump Says He’s Pulling Vance Off Iran Talks to Focus on Fraud Campaign
The announcement on social media deepened questions about what the president’s plan is to end the war. “We don’t need a deal with Iran,” he wrote.
www.nytimes.com
Davey Crockett
Elite Member
How about focusing on the corruption in the Republican run shithole Oklahoma?
Every day, on my Facebook feed, there is yet another elected official or police officer being arrested and then let off with probation.
The SC
INT'L MOD
A Strategic Reading of the Most Dangerous Chapters of the CSBA Report on the Iranian Nuclear Scenario... And How Does It Match Our Current Reality?
Today, I will discuss the most dangerous section of the CSBA report by military planner Mark Gunzinger, linking it to my analytical perspective on the current reality of war.
An important methodological clarification before reading:
The report did not treat Iran as a nuclear state at the time of its writing. Rather, it was based on a "prospective hypothesis" for the timeframe (2020–2025), in which the author assumed that Iran would reach a stage of "capability maturity" during these years, and would very likely possess a small number of operational nuclear weapons by the end of 2025. Therefore, Konzinger wrote this report to explain how Washington should respond militarily in the event of war under this scenario, concluding his recommendations with the necessity of preventing Iran from acquiring such weapons before the end of that timeframe in 2025 (the repercussions and striking parallels of which we see in today's events!).
Here, I have summarized for you the four most dangerous military surprises that Pentagon planners included in that report, linking them to what we are witnessing today:
The Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) Tactic to Disable the US Military Without Casualties:
The report posits that Iran, fearing nuclear annihilation, might avoid directly striking US forces and instead detonate a nuclear warhead at high altitude over the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea. This explosion would not cause direct casualties (thus reducing the likelihood of a US nuclear response), but it would generate an electromagnetic pulse that would destroy electronics and completely disable US command and control (C4ISR) networks.
The Dilemma of Nuclear Deterrence for the Protection of the Gulf States (The Absence of a "NATO" Model):
The report asserts that deterring an Iranian nuclear attack against the Gulf states is far more difficult than deterring an attack on US forces operating in the region. The primary reason for this is the lack of a formal, unified regional security institution in the Gulf similar to NATO. Furthermore, questions arise regarding Washington's commitment to unilateral defense, which could undermine the credibility of deterrence and give Tehran an opportunity to attempt to blackmail its neighbors and impose its will on them by force.
The Report's "Bombshell": Washington's Fatal Mistake and the Rise of the Revolutionary Guard Hardliners:
The report warns the US leadership against targeting Iran's nuclear command and control infrastructure at the outset of a war, as this would prompt Tehran to adopt a "use it or lose it" doctrine and immediately unleash its nuclear arsenal. Even more dangerously, the report strongly warns against a scenario involving the transfer of field authority and the elevation of ideologically driven Revolutionary Guard commanders to the forefront of decision-making. This increases the likelihood of extreme or unilateral decisions being made without regard for the consequences.
(Here we see a striking parallel with the reality of war today. Politicians have been sidelined, and Revolutionary Guard commanders have effectively taken center stage. This was clearly demonstrated in the statement made today by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, rejecting the handover of even a "dust of enriched uranium" and announcing the intention to use it in the manufacture of nuclear submarines!). Therefore, I titled this point "The Report's Bombshell."
Missile Saturation and Fighting Amidst Radiation:
The report acknowledges the military reality that 100% of missiles cannot be intercepted. Iran could overwhelm defense systems (THAD, Patriot, SM-3) with conventional warheads first, followed by a nuclear warhead. Therefore, the report recommends dispersing US forces and training them to continue combat operations in radioactive environments after an attack.
Summary and Analytical Reading of the Reality:
Mark Gunzinger concludes his report with a crucial strategic truth: despite Washington's absolute escalation advantage, the presence of hardline leaders who might push for a nuclear suicide option regardless of the consequences makes "preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons altogether" the only safe option for the United States.
An analytical reading of what has happened and is happening in this war reveals that this report, written years ago, accurately diagnosed today's dilemma. The military strikes targeting nuclear facilities, and the current hardening of Iranian rhetoric regarding maintaining its enriched uranium stockpile and its military applications (such as nuclear submarines) under the command of Revolutionary Guards, confirm that Washington is now facing, quite literally, the scenario the report warned against: how to prevent a besieged adversary led by hardliners from turning its enriched stockpile into a final deterrent without pushing it to the brink of all-out war?
(Note to fellow members: This is a concise summary of the most important points of the nuclear scenario in the report. Anyone who wants deeper details about the missile defense layers, or on the "Iranian chemical weapons" and how to deal with them as mentioned in the report,. needs to refer to the report of 2019)https://csbaonline.org/
Today, I will discuss the most dangerous section of the CSBA report by military planner Mark Gunzinger, linking it to my analytical perspective on the current reality of war.
An important methodological clarification before reading:
The report did not treat Iran as a nuclear state at the time of its writing. Rather, it was based on a "prospective hypothesis" for the timeframe (2020–2025), in which the author assumed that Iran would reach a stage of "capability maturity" during these years, and would very likely possess a small number of operational nuclear weapons by the end of 2025. Therefore, Konzinger wrote this report to explain how Washington should respond militarily in the event of war under this scenario, concluding his recommendations with the necessity of preventing Iran from acquiring such weapons before the end of that timeframe in 2025 (the repercussions and striking parallels of which we see in today's events!).
Here, I have summarized for you the four most dangerous military surprises that Pentagon planners included in that report, linking them to what we are witnessing today:
The Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) Tactic to Disable the US Military Without Casualties:The report posits that Iran, fearing nuclear annihilation, might avoid directly striking US forces and instead detonate a nuclear warhead at high altitude over the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea. This explosion would not cause direct casualties (thus reducing the likelihood of a US nuclear response), but it would generate an electromagnetic pulse that would destroy electronics and completely disable US command and control (C4ISR) networks.
The Dilemma of Nuclear Deterrence for the Protection of the Gulf States (The Absence of a "NATO" Model):The report asserts that deterring an Iranian nuclear attack against the Gulf states is far more difficult than deterring an attack on US forces operating in the region. The primary reason for this is the lack of a formal, unified regional security institution in the Gulf similar to NATO. Furthermore, questions arise regarding Washington's commitment to unilateral defense, which could undermine the credibility of deterrence and give Tehran an opportunity to attempt to blackmail its neighbors and impose its will on them by force.
The Report's "Bombshell": Washington's Fatal Mistake and the Rise of the Revolutionary Guard Hardliners:The report warns the US leadership against targeting Iran's nuclear command and control infrastructure at the outset of a war, as this would prompt Tehran to adopt a "use it or lose it" doctrine and immediately unleash its nuclear arsenal. Even more dangerously, the report strongly warns against a scenario involving the transfer of field authority and the elevation of ideologically driven Revolutionary Guard commanders to the forefront of decision-making. This increases the likelihood of extreme or unilateral decisions being made without regard for the consequences.
(Here we see a striking parallel with the reality of war today. Politicians have been sidelined, and Revolutionary Guard commanders have effectively taken center stage. This was clearly demonstrated in the statement made today by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, rejecting the handover of even a "dust of enriched uranium" and announcing the intention to use it in the manufacture of nuclear submarines!). Therefore, I titled this point "The Report's Bombshell."
Missile Saturation and Fighting Amidst Radiation:The report acknowledges the military reality that 100% of missiles cannot be intercepted. Iran could overwhelm defense systems (THAD, Patriot, SM-3) with conventional warheads first, followed by a nuclear warhead. Therefore, the report recommends dispersing US forces and training them to continue combat operations in radioactive environments after an attack.
Summary and Analytical Reading of the Reality:
Mark Gunzinger concludes his report with a crucial strategic truth: despite Washington's absolute escalation advantage, the presence of hardline leaders who might push for a nuclear suicide option regardless of the consequences makes "preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons altogether" the only safe option for the United States.
An analytical reading of what has happened and is happening in this war reveals that this report, written years ago, accurately diagnosed today's dilemma. The military strikes targeting nuclear facilities, and the current hardening of Iranian rhetoric regarding maintaining its enriched uranium stockpile and its military applications (such as nuclear submarines) under the command of Revolutionary Guards, confirm that Washington is now facing, quite literally, the scenario the report warned against: how to prevent a besieged adversary led by hardliners from turning its enriched stockpile into a final deterrent without pushing it to the brink of all-out war?
(Note to fellow members: This is a concise summary of the most important points of the nuclear scenario in the report. Anyone who wants deeper details about the missile defense layers, or on the "Iranian chemical weapons" and how to deal with them as mentioned in the report,. needs to refer to the report of 2019)https://csbaonline.org/
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