US Political News and Trump’s China visit

[j_hungary]

The problem for Trump is his lack of discipline and ability to keep even his own minions on message. He also doesn’t really account for the moves his opponents play. For example, his transactionist bent and need to appear to be winning “bigly” is why it’s even more likely under a Trump administration that Taiwan could be ruled from Beijing under his watch. This is reflected in how analysts are thinking about a Taiwan strategy under Trump.

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At the same time, under Trump, it seems he is going full bore into reasserting the image of dominance in the western hemisphere. But the risk is this kind of destabilization could cause a new refugee crisis, undermining his own goals.

He is not disciplined on key national goals that would allow the US to better deal with an ascendant China.

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Trump is using Boris Johnson's playbook and deadcatting the media.

Dead cat strategy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Which was the campaign strategy Johnson used in the 2015 election, and 2019 elections, successfully propelling him to the prime Ministership in the UK, and was created by his Australian advisor. When facts are against you, you throw a dead cat on the table to divert attention.

Trump had been doing this since the 2020 campaign, that's the reason why Trump most media conferences are very shocking. And he is doing it now by keeping throwing the immigration issue (Immigrant is eating the dogs and the cats) and crime issue (crime is through the roof, and blue city is a warzone) to cover his inability to rally the economy, even tho that's his own making.

Problem is, this cannot be used extensively, because once you use it, the shock is already gone, and you can't put a "deader" cat on the table to cover the original distraction, that's why the Tory lost 2024 with a giant landslide, which ironically Labour Party in the UK cannot cash in on just like how Dems won 2020 and didn't cash in on that in 2024 and got voted out, and now the UK had pushed to even further to the right where traditional conservative like the Tory is being wipe out by alt-right/far-right Reform UK. Which is exactly the same thing that happened to us in 2024

 

[That_Guy]

The vast majority of illegal immigrants do not work in farming.

Agriculture is a small portion of the California economy. There are visa schemes by which some of the farm workers are imported on visas and sent back once the harvest season is over

So, what's the problem? The same is true for their large construction industry.

I'm not seeing the issue here.

By in large, undocumented workers contribute more to welfare programs than they use.

 

[nahtanbob]

So, what's the problem? The same is true for their large construction industry.

I'm not seeing the issue here.

By in large, undocumented workers contribute more to welfare programs than they use.

Okay, you do a low-wage job. But you want to state to pay for K-12 education of your three kids and your family's healthcare. Sorry, it is a lousy tradeoff.

 

[nahtanbob]

Dude, I just should you 40% of roughly 30 million farmer are illegal, that's 12 million illegal working in farming industry in 2024, how many illegal do you think there are that 12 million in a single industry is not a majority?

Can you show me data that suggest what you said here? Or you are just blowing air?

Less than 2% of Americans work in farming. Draw your own conclusions

 

[That_Guy]

Okay, you do a low-wage job. But you want to state to pay for K-12 education of your three kids and your family's healthcare. Sorry, it is a lousy tradeoff.

Not really? Its more like a future investment. Those kids grow up and become tax payers. If they're educated enough, they pay more into taxes than their parents.

Undocumented workers paid roughly $100 billion in taxes alone last year.

 

[mythbuster]

First of all, cotton is cash crop, that's different. You grow cash crop for profit, it's like coffee. That's why coffee price jacked up 30% now, while wheat and soy bean price are below market rate. But assuming you don't know that much about farming, not knowing that is completely fine

Second of all, do you know why we had a civil war in 1865? And why plantation need slave?

Those two are very different. And as I said, either USDA don't push on the farmer to sell below market price, or as I said many post ago in a different thread, they slimline and make H-2A easier and less expensive to apply, I don't see any way they will stop hiring illegal. Either that, or they pack it up like my Dad when the next generation don't care that much about farming. Considering even I detested it and I went thru a proper farming community, I joined the FFA and local farming union, and I don't want to work at a farm, how do you convince everyday American to work that hard for a worse paid.

Other solution is to go the Japanese way......high quality food products for astronomical prices.... food prices in America are ridiculously low compared to other countries.... imagine a country with with 1500$ per capita income ( Pakistan)has roughly the same food prices as America with 60000 dollars per capita income .

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

One of the many discussions in the US at this time centers around the cost of food. Reports of a lot of posts on the various social media sites that people are going to start stealing food once their SNAP benefits stop and that the stores had better not stop them. For the context of this specific post, am going to focus specifically on beef prices.

Specific to beef: had to do a little digging and a little math.

In 2024, the US produced 12.3M metric tons of beef. Of that, 1.29M metric tons was exported.

US beef consumption annually averages 13.61M metric tons. So any way you want to look at it, we consume more than we produce. So that leaves importing to fill the void. One source confirms we import approximately 2.1M metric tons per year as of 2024. In round numbers, imports make up 15.5% of total demand.

That said, what is driving the high cost of beef? It's not solely due to tariffs. From an AI search:

Factors Driving High Beef Prices in the U.S.

Supply Shortages

• The U.S. cattle inventory is at its lowest level in nearly 75 years, leading to reduced beef production.
• Drought conditions have severely impacted ranching areas, forcing ranchers to sell off cattle due to lack of feed.
• The number of cattle ranches has decreased significantly, with over 150,000 ranches lost since 2017.

Increased Demand

• Despite high prices, consumer demand for beef remains strong, with many Americans continuing to prioritize beef in their diets.
• The trend towards high-protein diets has further increased demand for beef products.

Rising Costs

• Ranchers face higher input costs, including feed, labor, and equipment, which contribute to the overall price of beef.
• Tariffs on beef imports, particularly a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, have also raised prices for consumers.

Market Dynamics

• The beef market is highly consolidated, with just a few companies controlling a large share of beef processing, which can lead to price gouging.
• Economic pressures and the desire for immediate profits have led ranchers to liquidate herds rather than invest in long-term breeding, exacerbating supply issues.

Future Outlook

• Prices are expected to remain high until the cattle herd begins to rebuild, a process that can take several years due to the time required for calves to reach market weight.

Another newsflash: this issue did not start under President Trump. This has been an on-going problem for quite awhile now and I see it in my own area. He just happens to be the guy in the Big Chair at the moment so it's easy to blame him.

 

[Davey Crockett]

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[j_hungary]

Less than 2% of Americans work in farming. Draw your own conclusions

Assuming this is coming from somewhere other than "Trust me Bro," or are you sure you did not confuse the number of farms and the number of FARMERS in the US?

2% of the American population is 6 million. There are 1.88 million farms in the US, according to the USDA

Number of U.S. farms continues slow decline | Economic Research Service

The number of farms in the United States continued its yearslong decline in 2024, reaching 1.88 million, the lowest in more than a century. After peaking at 6.81 million farms in 1935, the number of U.S. farms dropped sharply through the early 1970s and then began a slower decline. The most...

www.ers.usda.gov

You are saying you need less than 4 people per farm (6.6/1.88 = 3.5 see above), for which the average size per farm is 466 acres (4.66 x 100 acres, see above) Is this what you are saying?

Sure, i believe you, bro. We are that automated.......Do you know how big is 1 acre??



That's almost 1 football field. Jesus, I am literally dead......or maybe I missed how much automation in farming since my last FFA convention...That's some marvelous shit right here you can have on average 3.5 persons take care of on average 466 acres farm..

 

[j_hungary]

Other solution is to go the Japanese way......high quality food products for astronomical prices.... food prices in America are ridiculously low compared to other countries.... imagine a country with with 1500$ per capita income ( Pakistan)has roughly the same food prices as America with 60000 dollars per capita income .

Again, that's because of the USDA (the government agency on Farming in the US) seriously controlling the price of US food commodities. In the last 30 or so years, farming in America is notoriously socialist because it very heavily depends on USDA subsidies, as they are the ones that push us to overproduce. Let's use corn, for example (Which is what we use to farm) 70% of the corn we (As in American farmers) produce is not going to the market, so you can eat off the cob; those are for industrial use, corn syrups, making ethanol to put in gasoline, making cooking oil, or even lubricant, US only consume about 10% of corn we grow, which mean the other 20% or so is going to export, this is still okay if other country is buying our corn, which is a big problem now because many country in the world are boycotting our produce. The thing is, all those oil, lubricants, and corn syrups, they don't buy your farm corn, because you never produce enough, they get those from the big corporation farm, but then that would drive down the price all the same. We can't sell them to the industrial people, we can't sell them back to USDA or USAid as those were cut now. Where else would you sell the corn? Just because you have more supplies, that does not mean people are going to eat more.

If we don't grow, we get nothing, I mean if you think of commodity price, you think oh, we have a super harvest and price is uber low, that's NOT good for the farmer because they are losing money hand over foot over it. That's how the farming game play in the US.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Found the following (haven't verified the numbers)

Food banks are a less effective way to administer aid than food stamps. Snap administers around $100 billion in benefits with VERY low overhead costs (~6%). I couldn't find complete data about the total cost of all aid from all good banks, but assuming it follows a long tail distribution, it looks like the top 300 food panties make $16 billion, some of that going to administrative costs. Using a modest estimate of 25% (it's probably closer to 40%) for overhead and administrative costs, my guess is that food pantries deliver around $10 billion in food aid annually in the US, probably significant less

Private charity absolutely CANNOT handle this increase in demand. Take into account that 2.4 million federal employees are also furloughed and many are using food pantries.

 

[j_hungary]

One of the many discussions in the US at this time centers around the cost of food. Reports of a lot of posts on the various social media sites that people are going to start stealing food once their SNAP benefits stop and that the stores had better not stop them. For the context of this specific post, am going to focus specifically on beef prices.

Specific to beef: had to do a little digging and a little math.

In 2024, the US produced 12.3M metric tons of beef. Of that, 1.29M metric tons was exported.

US beef consumption annually averages 13.61M metric tons. So any way you want to look at it, we consume more than we produce. So that leaves importing to fill the void. One source confirms we import approximately 2.1M metric tons per year as of 2024. In round numbers, imports make up 15.5% of total demand.

That said, what is driving the high cost of beef? It's not solely due to tariffs. From an AI search:

Factors Driving High Beef Prices in the U.S.

Supply Shortages

• The U.S. cattle inventory is at its lowest level in nearly 75 years, leading to reduced beef production.
• Drought conditions have severely impacted ranching areas, forcing ranchers to sell off cattle due to lack of feed.
• The number of cattle ranches has decreased significantly, with over 150,000 ranches lost since 2017.

Increased Demand

• Despite high prices, consumer demand for beef remains strong, with many Americans continuing to prioritize beef in their diets.
• The trend towards high-protein diets has further increased demand for beef products.

Rising Costs

• Ranchers face higher input costs, including feed, labor, and equipment, which contribute to the overall price of beef.
• Tariffs on beef imports, particularly a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, have also raised prices for consumers.

Market Dynamics

• The beef market is highly consolidated, with just a few companies controlling a large share of beef processing, which can lead to price gouging.
• Economic pressures and the desire for immediate profits have led ranchers to liquidate herds rather than invest in long-term breeding, exacerbating supply issues.

Future Outlook

• Prices are expected to remain high until the cattle herd begins to rebuild, a process that can take several years due to the time required for calves to reach market weight.

Another newsflash: this issue did not start under President Trump. This has been an on-going problem for quite awhile now and I see it in my own area. He just happens to be the guy in the Big Chair at the moment so it's easy to blame him.

The problem is that the issue existed in the last 30 years, while Trump did not create this issue, he exacerbated it by issuing tariffs.

As I mentioned in the original post, we know we are not producing enough of beef for consumption, the problem is there, but it was made worse when Trump tariffed the number 1 beef-importing country by far to the US (Well, he tariffed everyone)

USDA Data https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-and-meat-international-trade-data




Australian imports are almost Canada and Mexico put together, and with New Zealand, the ANZ region took up almost half the US beef import, and you know Australia and New Zealand more or less go together.

You don't really need any economic knowledge to know this is going to impact the US beef price in a way that you are basically doing it by yourself. The US can't wean off Australian Beef, and that will compound badly on the existing problem where you are losing feeding ground and losing herd size and all those general inflation. Because Australian and New Zealand beef, which where US imported over 170,000,000 pounds (or 77,000 metric tons) in September alone, is now 10% (well, not now, since April 2025) more because you are paying for the tariff. Again, my question is, what do you think will happen? I mean he must have known the issue before he started with the tariff right? You can't say he doesn't know why the price of Beef is that high, even before his time in the office the second time.

You can't even move the entire ranching business back to compensate this because we don't have enough farmland in America to do so, you need fallow farm on rotation to feed cattle.

 

[SecularNationalist]

With all those softie young homos men hanging out on streets with the youth busy in making tiktok,mass shootings and anti social behaviour. I am not seeing any revolution coming In the next three decades atleast.

 

[Davey Crockett]

 

[Davey Crockett]

With all those softie young homos men hanging out on streets with the youth busy in making tiktok,mass shootings and anti social behaviour. I am not seeing any revolution coming In the next three decades atleast.

Looked at your "flags".

You are not even in America. You have not a clue.