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Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump In Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Latest Survey Shows

Sara Dorn
Forbes Staff
Sara Dorn is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics.

Vice President Kamala Harris has razor-thin leads over former President Donald Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new survey of the so-called “blue wall” states that could win Harris the election if she ekes out victories there.

Key Facts​

Pennsylvania: Harris leads by six points, 51% to 45%, in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters (margin of error 2.7), after a CBS/YouGov poll released earlier this month showed them tied in the state—Trump led President Joe Biden 50%-49% in an April CBS poll, and was up four points over Harris in a July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

Michigan: Harris is up 50% to Trump’s 45%, according to the Quinnipiac poll; CBS/YouGov found she had a one-point lead, 50%-49%, she led by five points in a late August CNN/SSRS poll and 11 points in the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

Wisconsin: Harris leads 48% to 47%, according to Quinnipiac, after leading by two points, 51%-49%, in the CBS/YouGov poll, a shift from her 50%-44% edge according to CNN and SSRS, and on par with the two-point advantage she held here in July’s Bloomberg poll.

Arizona: Trump leads Harris by five points, 49% to 44%, according to a survey of likely voters by CNN/SSRS from Aug. 23 to 29, though 14% of Arizona voters said they might change their minds before November—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.

Georgia: Harris is up by one point here, 48% to 47%, according to CNN/SSRS, within the 4.7-point margin of error, while 11% of likely voters surveyed suggested they could change their minds (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).

Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris leads by one point, 48% to 47%, and 13% of respondents told CNN/SSRS they’re not firmly committed to the candidates they prefer now, a slight decline from Harris’ two-point lead here in the July survey.

Big Number​

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, among registered voters, according to a late August Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, reversing the 48% to 46% lead Trump held there in July. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left. Read more
 

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