US Politics

[RabzonKhan]

 

[RabzonKhan]

"Drill, baby drill," Trump exclaims frequently, his enchanted cure for inflation. And he forewarned Biden will "destroy" the oil sector during his 2020 presidential campaign.

Actually, under the Biden presidency, the United States accounts for more than 20% of the global crude oil production and generates more energy than any other nation on Earth. Energy production in the United States has also reached an all-time high.

The country, in other words, is already doing the one thing Trump sees as the mother of all solutions.

Additionally, the oil industry's profitability and stock performance have improved significantly under Biden's presidency compared to Trump's.

And it's not just oil either. The United States has also hit all-time highs in the production of natural gas, solar, and wind power.

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Harris widens lead over Trump, blunts his economic edge, poll finds​

Updated Sep 25, 2024

WASHINGTON - Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47 per cent to 40 per cent in the race to win the Nov 5 US presidential election, as she appeared to blunt Trump’s edge on the economy and jobs, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Sept 24 found.

Ms Harris had a lead of six percentage points based on unrounded figures – which showed her with support from 46.61 per cent of registered voters while Trump was backed by 40.48 per cent, according to the three-day poll that closed on Sept 23.

The Democrat’s lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The latest poll had a margin of error of about four percentage points.

While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos polls give important signals on the views of the electorate, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive.

Polls have shown Ms Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in those battleground states, with many results within the polls’ margins of error.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump with marginal leads in three of these states – Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Asked which candidate had the better approach on the “economy, unemployment and jobs,” some 43 per cent of voters responding to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll picked Trump and 41 per cent selected Ms Harris.

Trump’s two-point advantage on the topic compares to his three-point lead in an August Reuters/Ipsos poll and an 11 point lead over Ms Harris in late July, shortly after she launched her campaign. Read more

 

[RabzonKhan]

Members of Pennsylvania’s Polish community penned a letter endorsing Kamala Harris after Harris, at the debate earlier this month, warned that Trump would allow Russia to invade Poland once the war in Ukraine is finished under a Trump administration.

 

[Yommie]

Mark Zuckerberg identifies as libertarian, hires Republican strategist: report

Zuckerberg has reportedly hired Republican strategist Brian Baker to help mend his relationship with the right.

thepostmillennial.com

 

[Yommie]

Members of Pennsylvania’s Polish community penned a letter endorsing Kamala Harris after Harris, at the debate earlier this month, warned that Trump would allow Russia to invade Poland once the war in Ukraine is finished under a Trump administration.
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Most people don't give a crap about race anymore.

 

[RabzonKhan]

Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds​

By Matt Egan, CNN September 26, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has promised to attack the United States affordability crisis by imposing immense tariffs, carrying out unprecedented deportations and even influencing interest rate decisions.

However, a new analysis finds that the Republican presidential nominee’s plans for tariffs, deportations and the Federal Reserve would not only fail to solve inflation – they would make it much worse.

The Trump agenda would cause weaker economic growth, higher inflation and lower employment, according to a working paper released Thursday by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In some cases, the damage could continue through 2040.

“We find that ironically, despite his ‘make the foreigners pay’ rhetoric, this package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world,” the Peterson Institute working paper from researchers Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan and Marcus Noland concluded.

The paper represents the most comprehensive analysis to date on the combined impact of Trump’s trade, immigration and Fed proposals.

The findings are stark.

Even in a “low” scenario where only 1.3 million undocumented workers are deported and other countries opt not to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs, employment (measured as hours worked) would fall by 2.7% in 2028 relative to a baseline forecast, according to the paper.

Inflation would climb to 6% by 2026, the researchers found. By 2028, consumer prices are 20% higher.

US gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic growth, would be 2.8% lower than otherwise by the end of Trump’s four-year term.

The researchers also modeled a “high” scenario that incorporates retaliatory tariffs from other nations and 8.3 million undocumented workers getting deported. In that scenario, employment would be 9% lower than baseline by 2028 and inflation would surge to 9.3% by 2026. GDP would be 9.7% lower than otherwise.

The changes proposed by Trump would “cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy,” the paper found, adding that in some cases benefits would be conferred onto other economies.

The analysis assumes that the 2017 Trump tax cuts are extended, though it does not incorporate his proposals to end taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security benefits.

CNN has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.

The No. 1 issue​

In the past, the Trump campaign has pushed back on warnings that his policy proposals would worsen inflation and harm the economy.

“So-called economists and experts doubted President Trump’s economic plans in his first term. They were proven wrong then and they’ll be proven wrong again,” Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign national press secretary, told CNN in a statement earlier this month. “President Trump’s plan will result in millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars returning home from China to America.”

The findings come as a CNN poll out this week finds that the economy remains far and away the No. 1 issue for voters. About 4 in 10 likely voters (41%) say the economy is the most important issue for them, well ahead of the next-closest issue of protecting democracy at 21%.

Despite warnings from mainstream economists about the damage that some of Trump’s economic policies would do, the former president still has an edge on the critical issue. Likely voters say they trust Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris).

A Covid-like ‘shock’​

The paper found that all three of Trump’s policies on immigration, trade and the Fed would “cause a decline in US production and employment…as well as higher US inflation.”

But the most damaging element of these policies would be his immigration crackdown.

Trump has called for deporting perhaps 15 to 20 million undocumented people in an effort to fight crime, bring down inflation and help workers.

“People pouring into the country are killing the jobs of Black and Hispanic people,” Trump said on Tuesday during a speech in Georgia.

McKibbin, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, told CNN in a phone interview that mass deportations would cause a Covid-like “shock” to the supply of workers. He noted that an estimated 16% of workers in agriculture are undocumented.

“Can you imagine taking 16% out of the labor force in agriculture?” McKibbin said, adding that the cost of food would go up. “And unless you let them back in, you will have a permanent loss of supply.”

‘Greatest things ever invented’​

On the trade front, Trump has held up tariffs as a way to create a “manufacturing renaissance” in the US. He has proposed a 10% to 20% across-the-board tariff on all US imports as well as a 60% tariff on goods from China.

At an event in Michigan last week, Trump praised tariffs as the “greatest things ever invented.” In Georgia this week, Trump said the word “tariff” is “one of the most beautiful words I’ve ever heard.”

Yet the Peterson Institute research finds that Trump’s tariff and other plans would backfire – hurting manufacturing more than any sector. That means the same factory workers Trump says he is trying to help would be hurt the most.

“If other countries retaliate, as many likely would, a recession in the year after the increase in tariffs would be a serious threat,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an email.

Fed interference​

In what would be a significant break from recent history, Trump has indicated that he would try to exert direct power over Fed policy on interest rates.

Last month, Trump said he feels “strongly” that the president should “have at least a say in there,” noting that he has “made a lot of money” and was “very successful.”

Trump later walked the comments back a bit, telling Bloomberg that a president “certainly can be talking about interest rates,” but that “doesn’t mean I’m calling the shots.”

The Peterson Institute researchers noted that the concern is that the president would “press the Fed” to keep rates artificially low to boost the economy.

The paper found that erosion of Fed independence would cause higher inflation, capital outflows, a significant loss of value for the US dollar and higher unemployment – all of which would “worsen American living standards.”

“Countries that have independent central banks have much lower inflation,” said McKibbin, noting that Argentina’s central bank has grappled with political interference and today it has the highest inflation in the world.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who was nominated by Trump in 2017, cautioned against any effort to interfere with Fed independence.

“People have found over time that insulating the central bank from direct control by political authorities avoids making monetary policy in a way that favors, maybe, people in office as opposed to people who are not in office,” Powell said in response to a question from CNN. “We do our work to serve all Americans. We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue, nothing.” Source

 

[Sharma Ji]

 

[Sharma Ji]

 

[RabzonKhan]

Opinion: Harris' economic speech lacked anger and racism. What's wrong with her?​

Rex Huppke, USA TODAY September 25, 2024

Comrade Kamala Harris gave an economic speech in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and let me tell you, it was light on the two things I demand out of a serious leader: rambling stories that have nothing to do with the economy and rabid xenophobia.

Harris wasted my time by using her speech to detail a plan and vision for the American economy, promising things like a middle-class tax break for more than 100 million Americans that includes $6,000 for new parents during the first year of their child’s lives; working with builders to add 3 million more homes to the market, bringing home prices down, and helping first-time home buyers with $25,000 in down payment assistance; and doubling the number of registered apprenticeships while eliminating degree requirements for federal jobs.

Oh yeah? Well, what about the damn battery-powered boats that keep sinking and the people getting eaten by sharks, huh? What about the fact that GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has told me, and Fox News host Sean Hannity has confirmed, that America is a dystopian, third-world hellhole and the only way to fix it is to yell “TARIFFS!” as loud as possible?

What, Madam Vice President, do you have to say about the late, great Hannibal Lecter? No answer? It figures.

Harris' economic speech may have had details, but Trump's had anger​

Shortly before Harris took the stage in Pittsburgh to speak with highly suspicious clarity and compassion, Trump was in North Carolina showing REAL AMERICANS how it’s done.

Trump, under a banner that read "JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!", showed us his plan to boost the economy by being mad that former President Barack Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize, promoting his nearby golf course and suggesting that the Iranians want to kill him because he might harm their furniture-export operations.

“All of your furniture-makers are going to come back and come back bigger and stronger and better than ever before,” Trump said. “They’re mostly gone. They're all coming back. This is why people in countries want to kill me. They’re not happy with me. It is, it’s a risky business. This is why they want to kill me. They only kill consequential presidents, remember that.”

Right on!

So Harris can stay focused and complete a sentence? So what?​

Trump continued to masterfully demonstrate how a real he-man leader stays on topic: “I will end the chaos in the Middle East quickly, and I’m the only one that's gonna do this. We have never been so close to World War III as we are right now, we are so close. I will be sure that World War III will not happen, I’m the only one who can say it, won’t happen. But you’re very close, and that will be a war like no other because I always say it’s not going to be two army tanks, two tanks, which by the way our country wants to convert to electric, I’m not going to let that happen. They want electric tanks. They don’t work well. The battery size is so big you’re going to have pull a trailer behind the tank, can you believe this, they want electric tanks, they don’t care, they want to have a nice, free, beautiful for the environment as we blast our way through countries. These people are crazy, they’re crazy.”

Correct. Harris can stand there all she wants and “discuss actual policies” while “not sounding like her brain fell out of her ear” and “appear to care about people other than herself.”

Harris spoke with compassion. And that makes me very angry.​

She can say things like: “I remember being there when my mother was diagnosed with cancer. Cooking meals for her, taking her to her appointments, just trying to make her comfortable, figuring out which clothes were soft enough that they wouldn’t irritate her, and telling her stories to try to make her laugh. I know caregiving is about dignity, it really is. And when we lower the cost and ease the burdens people face, we will not only make it then easier for them to meet their obligations as caregivers, we will also make it more possible for them to go to work.”

That kind of thoughtful rhetoric does nothing to make me hate people who are different than I am. Useless!

Trump gives us specific details about made-up immigrant stories​

Trump caused the hate circuit in my brain to light up during his Wednesday speech when he said: “But Kamala should have closed the border years ago and we wouldn’t have hostile takeovers of Springfield, Ohio; Aurora, Colorado; where they are actually going in with massive machine gun-type equipment. They are going in with guns that are beyond even military scope, and they are taking over apartment buildings, they’re taking over real estate, they’re in the real-estate development business, congratulations. ... In that case people from Venezuela, young street gang members that were sent here by the Venezuelan government.”

The fake news media will tell you that’s all nonsense, but it sounds exactly like a fever dream I had the other night after spending 17 hours watching Fox News, so I believe it’s absolutely true.

Fox News didn't air Harris' speech, but it showed some of Trump's​

And speaking of Fox News, I know from watching that network that Harris is a complete mystery candidate who never gives any details about her policies and economic vision. So, did Fox News cover Harris’ speech Wednesday afternoon, when she gave details about her policies and economic vision? No. It wasn’t even mentioned on the network’s X account while the speech was going on.

That makes perfect sense to me. Real Americans have better things to do than listen to a liberal speak rationally about the economy. We’ve got to worry about electric tanks and immigrants with massive machine-gun-type equipment coming to take over our apartment buildings and who we are going to get irrationally mad at next and which of Trump’s golf properties that we can’t afford to visit is the best.

You know – the stuff that matters.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Rex Huppke on X, formerly Twitter, @RexHuppke and Facebook facebook.com/RexIsAJerk

 

[Yommie]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html