Venezuela - US Conflict: News, Updates

[VCheng]

And for all we know, 'The Spheres of Influence' plan has been worked out behind the scene with Russia and China.

Probably not.

 

[Meengla]

Probably not.

Who knows. But some analysts are saying the Chinese response to the potential American takeover of the Venezuelan oil--something important for China--has been relatively muted! It will be very interesting to see IF and WHEN the Americans are able to influence oil to China. Won't take long--maybe 2-3 months at most.
But by now no one --except some brainwashed MAGA--is fooled about the 'drugs' being the major reason to topple Maduro.

 

[Master Chief]

So watching videos from different countries, I see mentions of 'Monroe Doctrine' ['DONRoe Doctrine'], 'Spheres of Influence'. And Trump had indicated his preferences with 'Gulf of America', 'Grabbing Panama Canal', 'Grabbing Greenland', 'Making Canada the 51 State', then this attack on Venezuela. All those while little mention of China.
Me thinks President Trump is consolidating America in the Western Hemisphere come what way and leaving Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific to deal with later... And for all we know, 'The Spheres of Influence' plan has been worked out behind the scene with Russia and China. No Pakistani should be particularly upset about Trump's plans beyond, in principle, condemning the unraveling of the 8 decade world order which American had itself greatly help build.

None of this takes into account the underlying reality that Trump is compromised by a nation state well outside of the western hemisphere.

I would agree that Trump is at his core an "isolationist" only truly interested in cornering the stock market and that he may well have restricted his machinations to the western hemisphere if it wasn't for this single detail.

The man is compromised and as such, struggles to align his core interests (isolationism and ending forever-wars abroad was very much his ticket to election if you recall, and this is how he won the MAGA purists) with those of his handlers.

 

[Meengla]

I love this guy but don't have the time to watch such long videos. Here is link to the video and a screen cap from the video for the gist.

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[VCheng]

Who knows. But some analysts are saying the Chinese response to the potential American takeover of the Venezuelan oil--something important for China--has been relatively muted! It will be very interesting to see IF and WHEN the Americans are able to influence oil to China. Won't take long--maybe 2-3 months at most.
But by now no one --except some brainwashed MAGA--is fooled about the 'drugs' being the major reason to topple Maduro.

Please keep in mind that Venezuelan oil is not as important to China, or to the global oil market as it is being made out to be. The important feature here is forced regime change in a narcostate long grown accustomed to facilitating covert warfare against USA that puts others doing the same thing on notice. That also explains China being on the sidelines waiting it out.

 

[Meengla]

I would agree that Trump is at his core an "isolationist" only truly interested in cornering the stock market and that he may well have restricted his machinations to the western hemisphere if it wasn't for this single detail.

Right. Trump would even dump the Middle East had it not been for Israel's chokehold over him. He has proven to be a total Netanyahu lackey, something which I had predicted based on his first term, his donor class, his political base with a lot of Evangelicals, and his own words, and that's why I did NOT vote for him in 2024.
But that's for another thread.

 

[Meengla]

Please keep in mind that Venezuelan oil is not as important to China, or to the global oil market as it is being made out to be. The important feature here is forced regime change in a narcostate long grown accustomed to facilitating covert warfare against USA that puts others doing the same thing on notice. That also explains China being on the sidelines waiting it out.

Really, VCheng: The 'Narcostate' argument is questionable not to only to the NY Times--if you saw a NY Times I posted above today--but also to a considerable part of his own MAGA base.
It is all about oil and control of the Western Hemisphere and quite possibly about the so-called 'Spheres of Influence'.

 

[FuturePAF]

Piecing together scattered battlefield accounts, the raid can be roughly reconstructed: to dodge Venezuelan air-defense radars, the U.S. flew a dozen MH-60M/HH-60G Pave Hawks and MH-47G Chinooks at treetop level—below 30 m—straight to Fuerte Tiuna in south Caracas. Not one man-portable missile was fired. The only resistance came from Maduro’s Cuban bodyguards, who briefly fought back with AK-103s and RPG-7s before being suppressed by an AC-130. Venezuelan units kept their lights off and their missiles in the racks—effectively a mutiny—while gaps in the Cuban cordon suggest a turncoat inside the guard. Rather than orchestrate a classic coup, Trump’s team chose a live-capture spectacle: the 2026 mid-terms loom, and “kidnap streaming” beats the bin-Laden raid in primetime ratings. Once Maduro is paraded in The Hague, Washington can freeze Venezuela’s oil accounts and let U.S. majors “administer” output—sovereignty shredded, profit secured.

The next five years will be the most acute phase of U.S.–China rivalry. Having tasted this low-cost decapitation, Washington will copy the script in Iran, Nicaragua and other petro-states. Beijing should leverage its industrial chain to give friendly nations an asymmetric shield:

1. Transfer complete production lines for Rainbow/Wing-Loong-class MALE drones, bundled with SAR pods and EW jammers, so they can track slow, low-level formations like MH-47Gs 24/7.
2. Help Iran, Algeria and Angola build swarming USV/UUV missile craft to choke the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Guinea, driving up the logistics price of any U.S. expedition.
3. Set up joint maintenance hubs in Latin America and Africa under commercial contracts to stock MANPADS and anti-drone microwave weapons, ensuring “on demand” availability.
4. For NPT signatories, explore “civilian” research reactors and floating NPPs: energy independence outside the dollar-oil chokepoint, yet still under IAEA safeguards.

Make target states able to see, stop and afford the fight, and Washington’s helicopter-kidnap gamble becomes high-risk, low-reward—buying strategic breathing space through shared technology.

More than the equipment. These states friendly to China need support, to have a stable economy, to rout out turncoats and ineffective government officials. These states need stable governments, with decent governance and friendly publics, so if equipment is sold it won’t be left on the shelf and actually be used to defend should something happen by whomever.

Btw, there is probabaly limited trust between China and many of these countries. China would be safer off just selling equipment, and sending advisors to work out of the embassy, as with other major powers.

Good governance and a strong economy are more powerful than most deterrence. Especially when it is known China won’t send troops to countries, such as far away in Africa, to defend those regimes.

For example, will China send PLAN warships to escort oil tankers back to China from Venezuela, bypassing US naval forces? Marco Rubio just announced a quarantine of Venezuelan oil, but not going after the remaining regime, at the moment.

 

[VCheng]

Really, VCheng: The 'Narcostate' argument is questionable not to only to the NY Times--if you saw a NY Times I posted above today--but also to a considerable part of his own MAGA base.
It is all about oil and control of the Western Hemisphere and quite possibly about the so-called 'Spheres of Influence'.

Really Meengla:

World Drug Report 2025 - Maps

World Drug Report 2024 - Special points of interest

www.unodc.org

Meanwhile, China's sources of oil imports:

The following table outlines the primary countries supplying crude oil to China in 2024:

Russia	2,200	19.8%
Saudi Arabia	1,576	14%
Iraq	1,088	12%
Iran	1,000	9%
Other Middle East	1,000	9%
Canada	800	7%
United States	< 2%	< 2%

More here:

Oil imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. crude oil imports sources including OPEC and Persian Gulf, and top five source countries of U.S. oil imports and destinations of U.S. crude oil exports.

www.eia.gov

 

[Dalit]

Lessons for brown developing nations:

1. Form economic unions and trading blocs to facilitate regional commerce.
2. Establish a collective currency to streamline trade and reduce dependency on Western powers.
3. Form defense pacts based on the principle that "an attack on one is an attack on all."
4. Set up defense industries, consortiums and joint ventures that provide mutual benefits to all developing member nations.
5. Identify a central leadership: Just as the Western world looks to the US, the developing bloc should establish or recognize a clear leader to guide its interests.

Everything else is meaningless talk. If the brown developing nations don't learn after such humiliation, they will simply never learn.

 

[FuturePAF]

Lessons for brown developing nations:

1. Form economic unions and trading blocs to facilitate regional commerce.
2. Establish a collective currency to streamline trade and reduce dependency on Western powers.
3. Form defense pacts based on the principle that "an attack on one is an attack on all."
4. Set up defense industries, consortiums and joint ventures that provide mutual benefits to all developing member nations.
5. Identify a central leadership: Just as the Western world looks to the US, the developing bloc should establish or recognize a clear leader to guide its interests.

Everything else is meaningless talk. If the brown developing nations don't learn after such humiliation, they will simply never learn.

These can only work on a foundation of a strong but well respected local government. One who can the majority of the public is willing to serve, enmasse and on demand.

The suggestions above can only be done once the foundation is solid, otherwise there is always a risk of insiders standing down and letting others get pass your defenses.

 

[Ё-МАЁ]

Who knows. But some analysts are saying the Chinese response to the potential American takeover of the Venezuelan oil--something important for China--has been relatively muted! It will be very interesting to see IF and WHEN the Americans are able to influence oil to China. Won't take long--maybe 2-3 months at most.
But by now no one --except some brainwashed MAGA--is fooled about the 'drugs' being the major reason to topple Maduro.

Chinese social media supported the US actions against Maduro. The Chinese want Beijing to carry out a similar operation in Taiwan.
** "Since the US doesn't take international law seriously, why should we care?"
"I propose using the same method to retake Taiwan in the future."
Such comments are spreading in the Chinese media, where the topic of capturing Maduro is very popular.
China's official reaction was restrained. On the one hand, Trump's actions now give Xi Jinping another opportunity to present China as the guardian of the rules-based international order that the US helped create but from which it is increasingly retreating.
On the one hand, Trump's actions now give Xi Jinping another opportunity to portray China as the guardian of the rules-based international order that the US helped create but from which it is increasingly departing.
On the other hand, political scientists interviewed by Bloomberg believe that the US actions open the door for Xi Jinping to consider military action against Taiwan, especially if the global reaction to the US actions is restrained.
Such a Pandora's box was certainly opened in early 2026...
P.s. I expect comments like: "The US is not your lousy China."

 

[LeGenD]

Here is something. The central issue is the nationalization of the oil industry in Venezuela by Hugo Chavez. American companies were originally involved in creating Venezuelan oil industry but Hugo Chavez nationalized it in 1970.

Venezuela continued to be a major oil exporter to the US for some years, supplying 1.5 – 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the late 1990s and early 2000s. But after Hugo Chavez took office in 1998, he nationalised all oil assets, seized foreign-owned assets, restructured PDVSA and prioritised political goals over exports, leading to declining production alongside mismanagement and underinvestment.

Does the US have any real claim on Venezuelan oil as Stephen Miller says?

US companies developed Venezuelan oil fields until the country nationalised its oil reserves in the 1970s.

www.aljazeera.com

This is why Trump have accused Venezuela of oil theft and decided to seize Venezuelan oil industry. Now it adds up.

 

[Cash gk]

Learn basic grammar before insulting people.

Is that your best? I simply pointed out that you promote violence. That has nothing to do with my grammar.

 

[Dalit]

Rubio says US not at war with Venezuela, as Maduro set to appear in New York court on Monday

The secretary of state says the US will retain "multiple levers of leverage" if Venezuela's leaders don't "make the right decisions".

www.bbc.com

As @VCheng would say, this is just international geopolitics.