WMD: a strategic deterrence perspective for Bangladesh

[AjayGhatak]

Not necessarily - you take the Israel stance of deniability but everyone knows you have it and you convey their existence only via secret diplomatic cables in euphemisms.

However, for this specific scenario I don’t see BD having a need for a “samson” option in terms of a WMD because it’s primary threat has a much stronger preference for using political assets to assert control rather than any military adventures because those will backfire in many ways.

However, Im more averse to biological WMDs simply because I remember the past 5 years and will remind everyone that while you can control where a nuclear or chemical weapon detonates and its fallout - you can launch a virus or similar biological component but you have NO WAY to control its yield and fallout.

So your deterrence is no longer against once state you’re essentially saying to the entire world “touch us and we’ll commit hara kiri for the entire human race”.

Fine if you want to be the DPRK - not fine if you want to be a progressive economic power.

Huh? Israel samson option is way different. They neither confirm but more importantly NEVER DENY the existence of their nukes.

Will BD be able to do the same? Not denying existence of biological WMDs? Let me remind you that BD is signatory to treaty on Biological and Chemical weapons.

If it keeps its biological WMDs secret what deterrence value will it have? If it gets leaked to India then India can do an intelligence coup to expose those weapons to the world inviting economic repurcursions in peace time and a legitimate excuse to deploy its own WMDs (nukes) during wartime.

 

[SABRE]

BD is a member of BTWC. I don't think it will opt out of it.

 

[nahtanbob]

Not necessarily - you take the Israel stance of deniability but everyone knows you have it and you convey their existence only via secret diplomatic cables in euphemisms.

However, for this specific scenario I don’t see BD having a need for a “samson” option in terms of a WMD because it’s primary threat has a much stronger preference for using political assets to assert control rather than any military adventures because those will backfire in many ways.

However, Im more averse to biological WMDs simply because I remember the past 5 years and will remind everyone that while you can control where a nuclear or chemical weapon detonates and its fallout - you can launch a virus or similar biological component but you have NO WAY to control its yield and fallout.

So your deterrence is no longer against once state you’re essentially saying to the entire world “touch us and we’ll commit hara kiri for the entire human race”.

Fine if you want to be the DPRK - not fine if you want to be a progressive economic power.

you are assuming Bangladesh or that matter third world countries know to make deadly pathogens. It is non-trivial science that is not made public unlike the secrets of making an atom bomb

 

[Afif]

you are assuming Bangladesh or that matter third world countries know to make deadly pathogens. It is non-trivial science that is not made public unlike the secrets of making an atom bomb

In fact it is much easier.

"A technique called Clustered, Regularly Interspaced, Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR-Cas9) is now so cheap and widely available that scientists fear that amateurs will start experimenting with them. In this technique, a DNA sequence is cut off and replaced with a new sequence, e.g. one that codes for a particular protein, with the intent of modifying an organism's traits. Concerns have emerged regarding do-it-yourself biology research organizations due to their associated risk that a rogue amateur DIY researcher could attempt to develop dangerous bioweapons using genome editing technology."

"The cost of a biological weapon is estimated to be about 0.05 percent the cost of a conventional weapon in order to produce similar numbers of mass casualties per kilometer square. Moreover, their production is significantly easier, as common technology can be utilized to produce biological warfare agents, like that used in production of vaccines, foods, spray devices, beverages and antibiotics."

Biological warfare - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Oscar]

you are assuming Bangladesh or that matter third world countries know to make deadly pathogens. It is non-trivial science that is not made public unlike the secrets of making an atom bomb

I’m assuming them irrelevant to the idea of them being there for now - the simple why of it rather than the how

 

[nahtanbob]

I’m assuming them irrelevant to the idea of them being there for now - the simple why of it rather than the how

Okay the how is quite challenging. It is not something that has been published for good reason. Once people look into the how the rationale for the why will change in a hurry

 

[Oscar]

In fact it is much easier.

"A technique called Clustered, Regularly Interspaced, Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR-Cas9) is now so cheap and widely available that scientists fear that amateurs will start experimenting with them. In this technique, a DNA sequence is cut off and replaced with a new sequence, e.g. one that codes for a particular protein, with the intent of modifying an organism's traits. Concerns have emerged regarding do-it-yourself biology research organizations due to their associated risk that a rogue amateur DIY researcher could attempt to develop dangerous bioweapons using genome editing technology."

"The cost of a biological weapon is estimated to be about 0.05 percent the cost of a conventional weapon in order to produce similar numbers of mass casualties per kilometer square. Moreover, their production is significantly easier, as common technology can be utilized to produce biological warfare agents, like that used in production of vaccines, foods, spray devices, beverages and antibiotics."

Biological warfare - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not to mention that there are many many Bengalis who are in the field both at home and abroad -

It really depends on how a member’s bias plays into it - if you are hell bent to downplay a country or people who will call day as night and if you’re truly objective you could acknowledge that there are Human Resources available for BD to do so, there are questions of both facilities being available, willingness of SMEs abroad(because that is where better opportunities for BD expats are unless you are unwilling to incorporate best practices) to engage in what is still a morally reprehensible outcome and finally being able to “hide” this program from both international controllers and various players who will be looking to shut it down and penalize BD for it.

 

[nahtanbob]

In fact it is much easier.

"A technique called Clustered, Regularly Interspaced, Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR-Cas9) is now so cheap and widely available that scientists fear that amateurs will start experimenting with them. In this technique, a DNA sequence is cut off and replaced with a new sequence, e.g. one that codes for a particular protein, with the intent of modifying an organism's traits. Concerns have emerged regarding do-it-yourself biology research organizations due to their associated risk that a rogue amateur DIY researcher could attempt to develop dangerous bioweapons using genome editing technology."

"The cost of a biological weapon is estimated to be about 0.05 percent the cost of a conventional weapon in order to produce similar numbers of mass casualties per kilometer square. Moreover, their production is significantly easier, as common technology can be utilized to produce biological warfare agents, like that used in production of vaccines, foods, spray devices, beverages and antibiotics."

Biological warfare - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You will be creating random organisms hoping for a deadly pathogen

 

[Oscar]

Okay the how is quite challenging. It is not something that has been published for good reason. Once people look into the how the rationale for the why will change in a hurry

Absolutely - and it requires SME of which there are still plenty of BD origin folks available. All you have to do is search - I am not interested in pulling names for no reason on a hypothetical reason and give big brother a reason to bug someone.

 

[nahtanbob]

Not to mention that there are many many Bengalis who are in the field both at home and abroad -

Bangladesh is still a human resource poor society

Being in the field and making something of a product are two different things. Pakistan does not have a domestic car company. I am sure there are plenty of Pakistani engineers with expertise in areas relevant to automobiles.

I am sure folks will immediately point to the Pakistan's nuclear program. I may add no one knows capable Pakistani nukes are. Be happy no one in the world is interested in finding out

 

[Oscar]

Bangladesh is still a human resource poor society

Being in the field and making something of a product are two different things. Pakistan does not have a domestic car company. I am sure there are plenty of Pakistani engineers with expertise in areas relevant to automobiles.

I am sure folks will immediately point to the Pakistan's nuclear program. I may add no one knows capable Pakistani nukes are. Be happy no one in the world is interested in finding out

As I mentioned earlier - with bias anything can be painted negative - doesn’t mean you’re objective.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Sorry, those divisions are currently committed to sitting behind desks and descending into the battlefield of social media which just like COIN initially they have no idea about and are being massacred.

I was just being helpful.

Speaking of social media, those are double-edged tools. A well-oiled machine like the Sangh Parivar IT Cell can make a tremendous impact, but these social media triumphs are always subject to the test of reality. The moment the Parivar got smacked in the face by their reduction in votes, the tide turned, and they were at the receiving end of social media pot-shots.

Those people across the border trying to regulate the social media world by application of drill discipline will not do very well, but at least their efforts will give many of us some good clean fun.

 

[Destranator]

As a signatory of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), Bangladesh developing biological weapons is out of question.
The most effective deterence for Bangladesh would be to develop capabilities to conduct secondary/tertiary retaliatory strikes - the key here is to develop a triad of missile delivery platforms and abundance of artillery.

Short term (10 years) - rocket and self propelled artillery in every infantry division.

Medium term (20 years) - Land based SRBMs (indigenous), triad of imported cruise missile platforms (land, frigates, SSKs, multirole fighters).

Long term (30 years) - land based MRBMs (indigenous), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) on nuclear submarines (most effective deterence - can launch retaliatory land attack and bust naval blockades from international waters)

Ambitious plan but feasible with proper motivation.