Yemen Civil War News and Discussion.. an evolving situation

[Watandar]

Like Hasan Nasrallah and Khameini. All 3 gone

I didn't know Nasrallah and Khamenei were Wahhabis who caused all that death and destruction on 9/11, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and all across the Mideast.

Learn something new everyday.

 

[Falcon29]

I don't get why Iranians and Saudis are so invested in this topic. Houthi's will not march against Saudis or invade Saudi Arabia. They're not sectarian motivated. But they are aggressive in trying to eliminate opposition in Yemen and they saw this timing as opportune. It does have potential risks for them.

Only Iran provides them funding+ weapons so their alliance is that of a convenient transactional one. They're battle hardened and tribe is united so they have advantage over Yemeni opposition.

Will this help Iran? No it won't. Will it hurt Saudi Arabia ? Likely but how does that benefit Iran unless it's just out of spite towards Saudi Arabia ?

 

[Falcon29]

I don't get why Iranians and Saudis are so invested in this topic. Houthi's will not march against Saudis or invade Saudi Arabia. They're not sectarian motivated. But they are aggressive in trying to eliminate opposition in Yemen and they saw this timing as opportune. It does have potential risks for them.

Only Iran provides them funding+ weapons so their alliance is that of a convenient transactional one. They're battle hardened and tribe is united so they have advantage over Yemeni opposition.

Will this help Iran? No it won't. Will it hurt Saudi Arabia ? Likely but how does that benefit Iran unless it's just out of spite towards Saudi Arabia ?

Saudis likely will not get involved in big way because it's a lose -lose situation for them as they're under threat from three fronts -- Iraq - Iran - Yemen. This may cause internal opposition to MBS.

Houthi's will likely stop attacks against Saudi Arabia but Iraqis at behest of Iran won't as they're more sectarian motivated.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I don't get why Iranians and Saudis are so invested in this topic. Houthi's will not march against Saudis or invade Saudi Arabia. They're not sectarian motivated. But they are aggressive in trying to eliminate opposition in Yemen and they saw this timing as opportune. It does have potential risks for them.

Only Iran provides them funding+ weapons so their alliance is that of a convenient transactional one. They're battle hardened and tribe is united so they have advantage over Yemeni opposition.

Will this help Iran? No it won't. Will it hurt Saudi Arabia ? Likely but how does that benefit Iran unless it's just out of spite towards Saudi Arabia ?

Saudi backed government will never use control over Bab el Mandeb to block access to Israeli ships.

Ansarallah will.

It is that simple

 

[Falcon29]

Saudi backed government will never use control over Bab el Mandeb to block access to Israeli ships.

Ansarallah will.

It is that simple

Iran wants blockage of Saudi exports done by Houthi's. Israeli's ships have been not allowed since 2023 to cross route by Ansarallah and I don't believe they controlled Bab Al Mandeb at that time.

That maybe why Iran is invested but the reality is this recent escalation isn't about Iran and more a continuation of Yemeni civil war. Both sides will likely eventually back down and reach diplomatic solution.

Iran would like Saudi exports to be blocked to put pressure on global energy resources and economy.

We will see what happens with US mid terms and how Trump administration policy will look at that time regarding the war on the region. That will tell us how this evolves. I believe cooler heads will prevail for now.

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Falcon29]

Like I was saying, it is continuation of civil war. Opposition to Houthi's make push from east, Houthi's push South >> ceasefire and diplomatic solution reached eventually. This has replayed itself many times before in the war.

Saudis weakness is target acquisition and intelligence capabilities. So they likely cannot intervene on scale they'd like even if they wanted to. And cooler heads should prevail.

 

[Falcon29]

This pipeline was attacked by Iraqi militias but post is relevant to thread as it covers Bab Al Mandeb strait situation :

 

[Master Chief]

Remember this conflict much predates 2015 when Saudi coalition started their aggression against these poor Yeminis.

It Arab internecine fight with nothing to do with us.
Houthis have been wronged for decades, dare I say centuries.

This is not our fight and we should NEVER enter this lake of fire.

As mentioned before, folks have made the fundamental error of assuming interventions are going to be necessarily kinetic on the part of the 3 parties to the Mecca agreement. I think other options are available and that is the route Pakistan is most likely to assist with, rather than direct troop deployment to a front line that is NOT actually in Saudi Arabia but is in Yemen between factions in a civil war.

Pakistan doesn't need to, nor is really justified to, get involved in all and sundry "proxy" conflicts around the world (admittedly a bit of an assumption on my part, as I don't know the precise terms of the arrangement).

 

[Persian Gulf]

Like I was saying, it is continuation of civil war. Opposition to Houthi's make push from east, Houthi's push South >> ceasefire and diplomatic solution reached eventually. This has replayed itself many times before in the war.

Saudis weakness is target acquisition and intelligence capabilities. So they likely cannot intervene on scale they'd like even if they wanted to. And cooler heads should prevail.

Saudis want to impose siege on Yemen, now they have to decide whether to commit ground troops for several years and at great cost to their economy and infrastructure to really push Ansarallah back or to bite the bullet and return to 2022 roadmap and lift the siege

Both sides can climb the escalation ladder (notably no missile/drone strikes against Riyadh yet, mostly against energy infra in south KSA), but the previous dynamics seem to exist with a slight advantage for Ansarallah this time

 

[Falcon29]

As mentioned before, folks have made the fundamental error of assuming interventions are going to be necessarily kinetic on the part of the 3 parties to the Mecca agreement. I think other options are available and that is the route Pakistan is most likely to assist with, rather than direct troop deployment to a front line that is NOT actually in Saudi Arabia but is in Yemen between factions in a civil war.

Pakistan doesn't need to, nor is really justified to, get involved in all and sundry "proxy" conflicts around the world (admittedly a bit of an assumption on my part, as I don't know the precise terms of the arrangement).

Pact was made for defensive reasons. Yemen has been in civil war for decades. Nothing Pakistan or Saudis can do about it. Saudis will still defend city of Aden but the lines in Yemen are largely drawn and permanent.

Turkey and Pakistan will help if Houthi's or Iraqi proxies take attacks on Saudi Arabia too far, in form of unjustified aggression. This pact was to prevent unjustified aggression by non state actors and also by Israel if Israel starts getting ideas. Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and to extent Egypt have been trying to counter Israeli presence in areas of africa and middle east. And counter UAE influence.

Turkey-Pakistan-KSA also trying to manage this regional war and prevent it from becoming exisistential threat to all Muslim nations, including Iran.

 

[Falcon29]

Saudis want to impose siege on Yemen, now they have to decide whether to commit ground troops for several years and at great cost to their economy and infrastructure to really push Ansarallah back or to bite the bullet and return to 2022 roadmap and lift the siege

Both sides can climb the escalation ladder (notably no missile/drone strikes against Riyadh yet, mostly against energy infra in south KSA), but the previous dynamics seem to exist with a slight advantage for Ansarallah this time

I respectfully disagree about Saudi intentions. Houthi's are paranoid because of regional developments and any potential moves by Yemeni opposition whether they're goaded by Saudis or not.

Personally I believe Ansarallah always had advantage but kept peace as tribes in South aren't cool with them and they both agreed to leave each other alone.

Ansarallah strikes on Saudi Arabia is for their survival, not for Iran. They're warning Saudis to back any offensive of Yemeni opposition from East and if calmer heads prevail then both will back down and stop any attacks on each other.

It's still a big development and deserving to be monitored by viewers and international community.

But it won't change Iran US conflict into one direction or other significantly. That requires major escalation by either US or Iran which neither side is willing to do for now.

 

[F-22Raptor]