Pakistan-Af: Operation Khyber Storm

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At this point, it's clear that Afghanistan is a complete threat, and the only way to get rid of it is to balkanize it.
Pretty easy.. just work with mehsud son and divide it into two for now

Don't believe it can be sustained or that we even want it. Afghanistan is a medieval state which will not splinter off into smaller states and move on. Any division of power will result in warfare by the larger factions until consolidation. This will spill over into Pakistan and force us into another tough juggling act between the different factions. In the end the TTA will most likely come out on top, yet again. Just like the 90s and 2021.

What we instead want there is a consolidated but compromised central authority which is compliant, if not subservient. The only faction powerful enough to hold that, right now, is the TTA and we are attempting to make them compliant.
 
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Likely not. Suicide drones typically don't carry a warhead large enough to cause that big of an explosion, unless there were secondary explosions, which doesn't seem to be the case.

Personally, I think it's just a good old fashion air strike.
You can see an object flying towards terrorist who are running away from it. Which clearly shows the hear the sound of drone prop before it explodes mid air. They won't get chance to run away if it was a laser guided missile.

However glide bomb trajectory can also look similar if looked from above.
 
are we using mirages for strikes in afg?wouldnt thier perflight cost would be less then the f16s?

Mirages are earmarked for nuclear delivery and airfield suppression in south punjab and masroor afb mostly. I don’t believe it would be very wise to redeploy them when jf-17s and f-16s are much closer. Additionally afaik the us is much more willing to sell us f-16 equipment and maintenance if we do use them against taliban and trump govt offered a sustainment fund for our f-16s in anti terror operations recently
 
Don't believe it can be sustained or that we even want it. Afghanistan is a medieval state which will not splinter off into smaller states and move on. Any division of power will result in warfare by the larger factions until consolidation. This will spill over into Pakistan and force us into another tough juggling act between the different factions with the TTA most likely coming out on top in the end. Just like the 90s and 2021.

What we instead want there is a consolidated but compromised central authority which is compliant, if not subservient. The only faction powerful enough to hold that, right now, is the TTA and we are attempting to make them compliant.
I dont agree completely.

The north of Afghanistan has always been more progressive than the pashtun dominated south.

Diciding along political, or even ethnic lines will likely lead to more stability, as both sides consolidate their held territory. The side that causes trouble will be easier to handle by supporting the opposing side.

Divide and rule.
 
taliban leadership:

• Cabinet: 28 officials
• Deputy Ministers: ~50+
• Governors: 34
• Military Commanders: ~30–40 (regional and provincial)
• Intelligence & Judiciary: ~20–30 key figures
• Total Extended Leadership: 100–150+ officials

I reckon PAF can take out the majority in one night?
 
I dont agree completely.

The north of Afghanistan has always been more progressive than the pashtun dominated south.

Diciding along political, or even ethnic lines will likely lead to more stability, as both sides consolidate their held territory. The side that causes trouble will be easier to handle by supporting the opposing side.

Divide and rule.

But how will you sustain it? The US pumped in trillions and stayed there for 20 years, arming and training anti-Taliban forces. Took the Taliban a few days to take everything back when the US left.
 
taliban leadership:

• Cabinet: 28 officials
• Deputy Ministers: ~50+
• Governors: 34
• Military Commanders: ~30–40 (regional and provincial)
• Intelligence & Judiciary: ~20–30 key figures
• Total Extended Leadership: 100–150+ officials

I reckon PAF can take out the majority in one night?

For such strikes you need real time info tracking and gathering along with a massive strike package at time of heightened tensions with india. Our armed forces do not have the same experience as mossad and idf in such broad decapitation ops
 
But how will you sustain it? The US pumped in trillions and stayed there for 20 years, arming and training anti-Taliban forces. Took the Taliban a few days to take everything back when the US left.
U dont need to sustain... make every terrorist strike in Pakistan. Let Afghanistan pay it multiply by 10. This way the cost is too high for them to sustain
 
The ttp just martyred more Pakistani soldiers, and the tta are threatening to launch suicide attacks on Islamabad.

The talibs are refusing to negotiate in good faith, while they launch attack on Pakistan.

And what is Pakistan doing? Nothing.

At this point, it's clear that Afghanistan is a complete threat, and the only way to get rid of it is to balkanize it.
But how?
Its not good terrain for creating longer term borders and then managing what is essentially hostile population becomes another issue.
If you Balkanize it you don’t really get rid of the trouble portions and instead end up with more potential relationships you have to manage.

A better bet is to simply go for killing leadership and walling off the border on this side. Manage a safe corridor for trade to Central Asia and overall trade in Afghanistan.

Just stem the horde and get better active intelligence in the area.

Lastly, address grievances of your locals - give them more opportunities and enable them instead of confining them.
 
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