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sir is PAF air cover and MPA airborne with fleet or are they still at baseBoth navies staring eye to eye just 240 nautical miles apart for almost 12 hours now. I've seen plenty of MPA activity as well. Seeing all this I'm certain PN is itching to lay it on the IN. Vikrant hasn't run away yet surprisingly even though mug 29s have faulty radars and literally no adequate bvr to respond to PAFs moves. Karachi Gwadar Ormara and coastal defence is being ramped since yesterday. Thats where we are ATM.
For whole Pakistan brothis does not look very good. as a karachiite i hope it doesnt escalate to further strikes
Deployed already. Thunders over the sea.sir is PAF air cover and MPA airborne with fleet or are they still at base
Interesting and factual. They've created so much noise that backing off isn't an option. They're stuck between a rock and a ditch.
Firstly, if they use that much firepower as a pre-emptive strikes then the escalation ladder will be out of the equation.
Secondly, it'll be very hard to defend against a missile barrage of that scale. So, it'll really depends on early detection, at which point all PAF assets will have to be airborne to scramble away from missile trajectories to minimize any damage. If India predict the dispersion accurately, then they could follow up with an IAF aeriel ambush. It'll be tricky for PAF to scramble in a manner that minimizes the chances for the assets to get ambushed while also occupying space that allow them to defend / counter attack. However, PAF most likely has that contingency already planned.
Lastly, any preemptive strike of that scale will leave very few responsive options for Pakistan, and I don't want to guess what that response will be, however, it'll militarily justify a SOS response.
On a side note, I don't think India will launch any preemptive strike of that sort because:-
1. As described above - would force Pakistan's hand to respond in a manner that doesn't serve in the best interest of either country.
2. To carry out such a large scale pre-emptive strikes, India needs a cause that justifies the response - which they don't have - yet.
3. For Modi, the optics of Indian population living under a national illusion and collective fear of a looming war with a "national enemy" - serves better to maintain status quo for his political/power goals instead of that illusion turning into a reality, especially where they force Pakistan's hand into a mass civilian casuality response.
I don't know what goes in Modi's head but I don't think he's as foolish and testosterone driven monster as one might think, he's a cunning and exploitative politician after all. I'd guess, even if he wants some sort of military action, he'd want a high-intensity localized conflict. Still, the fallacy that he can commit is the same as any before him i.e. believing that they can write a scrip in their head and all eventualities will follow that script precisely.
first strike against what? we need a credible casus beli for striking whatever we doIn such a scenario FIRST STRIKE gives the attacker a massive advantage
In essence you are picking the time and date of your attack, you have your targets in mind and your plan should be in place
In Pakistan -India scenario that gives India a advantage and then Pakistan will be playing catch up, trying to mitigate the initial damage and respond
Pre-emptive strikes, must be considered by Pakistan if the threat level is so high to give us the advantage of first strike
We already lack comparative strategic depth AND our cities are close to the border, these are historical weaknesses Pakistan has and we can't allow India to strike first
At the minimum we need a immediate response ready NOW, and none of this three day later crap
If we believe a Indian attack is coming then that is casus beli enoughfirst strike against what? we need a credible casus beli for striking whatever we do
In that case entire blame of war will be on Pakistan as aggressorIn such a scenario FIRST STRIKE gives the attacker a massive advantage
In essence you are picking the time and date of your attack, you have your targets in mind and your plan should be in place
In Pakistan -India scenario that gives India a advantage and then Pakistan will be playing catch up, trying to mitigate the initial damage and respond
Pre-emptive strikes, must be considered by Pakistan if the threat level is so high to give us the advantage of first strike
We already lack comparative strategic depth AND our cities are close to the border, these are historical weaknesses Pakistan has and we can't allow India to strike first
At the minimum we need a immediate response ready NOW, and none of this three day later crap
In such a scenario FIRST STRIKE gives the attacker a massive advantage
In essence you are picking the time and date of your attack, you have your targets in mind and your plan should be in place
In Pakistan -India scenario that gives India a advantage and then Pakistan will be playing catch up, trying to mitigate the initial damage and respond
Pre-emptive strikes, must be considered by Pakistan if the threat level is so high to give us the advantage of first strike
We already lack comparative strategic depth AND our cities are close to the border, these are historical weaknesses Pakistan has and we can't allow India to strike first
At the minimum we need a immediate response ready NOW, and none of this three day later crap
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