The Pakistani economy is in dire straits. A prolonged war could bleed its economy further.
By
Ahmadullah Archiwal
November 07, 2025
Pakistan and the Taliban regime have kicked off
a new round of negotiations in Istanbul. The talks are ostensibly aimed at preventing further escalation of their violent clashes over the past month. However, both sides are already
accusing each other of violating the ceasefire. War clouds are hovering over the Durand Line, their disputed border.
Should a war erupt, would Pakistan gain? Pakistan is militarily stronger than the Taliban and therefore, it has many reasons to believe that it can gain a lot from the war with the Taliban. However, a protracted war with the Taliban might not yield Pakistan the outcome it expects.
Legitimizing its war with the Taliban is a significant hurdle for Pakistan. In the past, Pakistan drew on religion to legitimize its proxy wars in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Now, however, it is becoming difficult for the Pakistani state to use religion to legitimize its war against the Taliban.
Recently, Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban regime’s foreign minister,
visited the Deoband seminary in India, which is considered the source of religious guidance for South Asian Muslims. The visit has significantly changed the dynamics on the ground. The visit has emboldened the Taliban to claim that they are the actual heir of the Deobandi school, and they are the ones who have more religious legitimacy. It will be close to impossible for prominent Pakistani religious scholars to justify a war with the Taliban based on religion.
Besides, Pakistani politicians are divided over the war against the Taliban. Many prominent politicians, including some nationalists, religious leaders, and some mainstream political parties, are openly opposing Pakistan’s war with Afghanistan. These include the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the Awami National Party and the Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awami Party.
Indeed, some Pakistani political parties are opposed to the Pakistani military’s operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a Pakistani province that borders Afghanistan. Foremost among them is the PTI, which heads the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The party is at
loggerheads with the Shehbaz Sharif government and the military establishment over the counterterrorism operations in the province.
Securing religious legitimacy and political backing is important for Pakistan to win its war against the Taliban. At the moment, it appears to have got neither.
Ahead of its military strikes on Afghanistan, Pakistan would have calculated that it would have the support of sections of the Afghan population, especially those opposed to the Taliban regime. However, most Afghans have criticized Pakistan’s attacks. They see it as an attack not on the Taliban but on the Afghan state. They are also enraged over the military strikes in Kabul, especially since these have claimed many civilian lives.
Not only this, Pashtuns living on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line have not supported the Pakistani attack on Afghan soil. Commerce in the two Pakistani provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan depends solely on Afghanistan. Industrialists and traders are unable to compete on a national level with their Pakistani counterparts, particularly with Punjabis and Sindhis. Hence, their dependence on Afghanistan for their economic survival. It is because of this reason that traders from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
protested during the recent military clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan’s endeavor to enter into a prolonged war will face resistance at home.
Although Pakistan has achieved considerable success on the diplomatic front—relations with the United States have improved in recent months and Islamabad signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia in September—this has not translated into economic gains. According to a
recent Financial Times report, the domestic situation in Pakistan reflects a nation grappling with worsening poverty, declining investment, and a stagnant economy that has not benefited its 250 million people. With its economy in dire straits, Pakistan cannot afford a protracted war with the Taliban.
More importantly, Pakistan’s paradoxical behavior and foreign policy rhetoric towards Afghanistan over the last forty years has left ordinary Pakistanis confused and questioning their rulers. During Imran Khan’s term as prime minister, Pakistan resettled a large number of TTP fighters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Pakistan army was not only aware of this, but it was part of the deal that paved the way for their
resettlement. In fact, former ISI chief Faiz Hamid played an active role in clinching the agreement.
As for the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan’s close ties with the group are well known. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khwaja Asif, who has taken a hawkish stance on the Taliban now, in a tweet, which has been apparently deleted now, had celebrated their victory when they captured power in Kabul on August 15, 2021. Khan, who was then Pakistan’s prime minister, praised the Taliban for
“breaking the shackles of slavery.”
Ahead of its launching military strikes on Afghanistan, Pakistan would have calculated that the international community would rally behind it. This has not happened. Almost all governments that
have reacted to the war have called for a ceasefire.
Importantly, Afghanistan’s rugged terrain will make a potential ground war between Pakistan and the Taliban a hard one for Islamabad to win. Afghanistan could bleed Pakistan, leaving it struggling to recover from the damage inflicted over an extended period.
