Russia - Ukraine war part ll. News and Discussions

Russia is effectively using Iranian provided Shahed-101 drones against Ukrainian forces behind the frontlines.

Warzone's report on Shahed-101
www.twz.com

Russia Now Using Iranian Shahed-107 Drones To Strike Beyond The Front Lines

The Shahed-107 could fill a major capability gap for Russia, reaching over medium distances to attack Ukrainian forces in areas that were previously considered safer.
www.twz.com www.twz.com

Note, warzone website has wrongly mentioned Shahed-107 name for Iranian Shahed-101 drone.
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Viet said:
Trump and his stooges have made the “peace plan” apparently after the russians served them too much wodka. What they are thinking of? Ridiculous beyond ridiculous.

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine banned from Nato, Russia readmitted to the G8 and territory ceded: what’s in Trump’s draft plan

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he expects to discuss the plan – which was reportedly drafted by Russian and US officials – with Trump
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Donbas is lost sooner or later. If Zelensky does not accept, more of Zapo will be lost. Zapo has fertile farmland. Losing Zapo will be a big blow to Ukraine.
 
Yommie said:
Donbas is lost sooner or later. If Zelensky does not accept, more of Zapo will be lost. Zapo has fertile farmland. Losing Zapo will be a big blow to Ukraine.
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Forget it. Ukraine will never agree. Europe will never agree. Trump desperately wants the peace prize. he wants the peace on other people costs. He will probably deport his wife to her homeland if he can get the nobel.

By the way Putin will not agree, either. His endgame is still annihilating Ukraine as nation and race. That’s not changed. If anything he will agree then he will attack in 3 years. By then Trump is retiring playing golf. You think Trump will care?
 
Viet said:
Forget it. Ukraine will never agree. Europe will never agree. Trump desperately wants the peace prize. he wants the peace on other people costs. He will probably deport his wife to her homeland if he can get the nobel.

By the way Putin will not agree, either. His endgame is still annihilating Ukraine as nation and race. That’s not changed. If anything he will agree then he will attack in 3 years. By then Trump is retiring playing golf. You think Trump will care?
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Look at it this way, this is Porkovsk today

1763740711123.png

This axis of advance was started in April 2024, that's 18 months ago, the battle itself lasted 15 months and from this map, if Ukraine wants to hold and fight (again, IF) they can fight it out until next Winter before withdrawing. That's how long it takes for Russia to capture Pokrovsk.

This "peace plan" would mean Ukraine will vacate all of Donbas, in exchange of the land in Kharkiv (the little salient) and the land in Sumy, the thing is, for Russia to completely taken Donbas, they must take Sloviansk and Kramatosk, both cities are 6 times larger than Pokrovsk, and heavily dug in since 2014 no less, if it is going to take 1 year plus change for Russia to take Pokrovsk, they are going to need multi-year effect to take both Sloviansk and Kramatosk, and that's before you need to make up that 100km or so deep into Donbas, that alone would have been another couple of years. There are virtually no chances Russia will be able to do this before 2026 mid-term, and a minimal chance Russia will be able to do this by 2028 for Ukraine to hope for Regime change in the US.

This talk is BS, that's just Trump throwing some bone out to distract the issue at home, nobody would consider this "plan" seriously....
 
Viet said:
Forget it. Ukraine will never agree. Europe will never agree. Trump desperately wants the peace prize. he wants the peace on other people costs. He will probably deport his wife to her homeland if he can get the nobel.

By the way Putin will not agree, either. His endgame is still annihilating Ukraine as nation and race. That’s not changed. If anything he will agree then he will attack in 3 years. By then Trump is retiring playing golf. You think Trump will care?
Click to expand...

If they don't agree then Ukraine will lose Donbas and more. It's evitable.
 
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j_hungary said:
Look at it this way, this is Porkovsk today

View attachment 161016

This axis of advance was started in April 2024, that's 18 months ago, the battle itself lasted 15 months and from this map, if Ukraine wants to hold and fight (again, IF) they can fight it out until next Winter before withdrawing. That's how long it takes for Russia to capture Pokrovsk.

This "peace plan" would mean Ukraine will vacate all of Donbas, in exchange of the land in Kharkiv (the little salient) and the land in Sumy, the thing is, for Russia to completely taken Donbas, they must take Sloviansk and Kramatosk, both cities are 6 times larger than Pokrovsk, and heavily dug in since 2014 no less, if it is going to take 1 year plus change for Russia to take Pokrovsk, they are going to need multi-year effect to take both Sloviansk and Kramatosk, and that's before you need to make up that 100km or so deep into Donbas, that alone would have been another couple of years. There are virtually no chances Russia will be able to do this before 2026 mid-term, and a minimal chance Russia will be able to do this by 2028 for Ukraine to hope for Regime change in the US.

This talk is BS, that's just Trump throwing some bone out to distract the issue at home, nobody would consider this "plan" seriously....
Click to expand...
Ukraine arny is much weaker they must retreat at some point. Many predicted including German’s highest rank general Freuding Pokrowsk would fall last year. Now still standing.

This war is much like other wars of attrition or the Vietnam war against the Mongol hordes 800 years ago. Let the zombies come and kill em. Imperative to keep going.
 
Viet said:
Ukraine arny is much weaker they must retreat at some point. Many predicted including German’s highest rank general Freuding Pokrowsk would fall last year. Now still standing.

This war is much like other wars of attrition or the Vietnam war against the Mongol hordes 800 years ago. Let the zombies come and kill em. Imperative to keep going.
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Germany took Paris in 1940. What makes you think Ukraine can beat Russia?
 
Viet said:
Ukraine arny is much weaker they must retreat at some point. Many predicted including German’s highest rank general Freuding Pokrowsk would fall last year. Now still standing.

This war is much like other wars of attrition or the Vietnam war against the Mongol hordes 800 years ago. Let the zombies come and kill em. Imperative to keep going.
Click to expand...
To be fair, many military analysts think that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk doomed Pokrovsk in the long term, because they wouldn't be able to control the area around Pokrovsk and allow the Russians to stabilize the line. And Pokrovsk should have fallen last year, around the same time now.

Again, Ukraine had not had any US support since April last year. The key for Ukraine is to hold out until 2028, when the Trump admin is voted out (Which is very likely at this point), and support from the US to resume post 2028, and if that is not achieveable (In the unlikely event GOP can hold the office of Presidency), Ukraine is to count on the European to put into speed by 2030 and beyond (that's the reason why Ukraine had sign the Rafale and Gripen deal), there are virtually no chance Russia can break Donbas by 2026, less than 10% chance for Russia to break Donbas by 2028, and if Russia can sustain their momentum, there are slightly less than half chance they can break Donbas by 2030, which mean any talk about conceding without NATO guarantee is basically pointless, because the war will go on if NATO membership or some sort of binding secuirty pact was not offered, the war is not going to stop, which mean any ceasefire in exchange of Ukrainian land is simply giving those land for free to Russia.
 
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