Russia - Ukraine war part ll. News and Discussions
- Thread starter Fatman17
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AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
This is true.
Yet, you must admit that Russia does have a number of strategic targets that are within Uke missile range. And, their drone game is very good as well.
Yommie
Elite Member
Both sides have very good drone game. In fact, Russia's ability to advance hinges on ginormous numbers of jam proof fiber optic toy drones. When it comes to drones, Russia has an edge over Ukraine. From long range high altitude attack drones like Orion to squad level toy drones, Russia has advantage over Ukraine at every level.
Ukraine lacks attack drones like Orion for example.
Russia arms Orion drone with new guided missiles
Russian defense officials have showcased a new strike-capable configuration of the Orion unmanned aerial vehicle equipped with two Kh-BPLA (TKB‑1030) guided missiles. The Orion, developed by Kronstadt Group, is already in use by the Russian military for reconnaissance and limited
defence-blog.com
j_hungary
Professional
lol, looking at people talking about manpower just by looking at population.
In the military. We don't talk about manpower this way; the correct term is "Force Generation" and "Force Regeneration" because even if you have a 10 million force (which both sides actually can raise) that does not translate to you can put all 10 million soldiers on the ground. The soldier you can put on the ground depends on a multitude of factors. Including available manpower, support size, means of control (ie do you have enough people to lead them), and needs (ie, you have other needs for troop, rear echelon stuff, base defence, border defence, and so on) that make up the pie on how much troop you can put into a theater TO&E. And this magic number for both side now is roughly 750,000 for Russian and 400,000 for Ukraine. Judging from the number of divisions and brigades in the theater
Now, let's talk about Force Regeneration, in the shortest and briefest form, itis basically an equation of the following
Battlefield Loses (Desertion + Casualty + Regular Rotation) < New Troop
The number above means Russia needs to maintain a level of 750,000 troops in the theater to have a positive Force Regeneration, while the Ukrainians need to maintain it at 400,000
Both sides cannot match that because of several different factors. For Russia, casualties are simply too high to match that number; the Russian casualty is estimated to be 1.8-2.1% of the Ukrainian Casualty rate. The problem is, Russian forces is a lot bigger, which means in absolute numbers, you are talking about 150,000-200,000 new influx to maintain that net loss. The issue is, Russia is not recruiting enough people. Average Troop rotation is about 110,000-120,000 with conscripts.
On the Ukrainian side, first of all, the 400,000 troops they can put in battle are not enough to defend all these territories; they need 550,000 troops, which they also can barely match. Because of the training rate and recuperation rate. Contrary to what many people here believe, desertion is not a net loss of manpower. Well, if they get caught and are executed, then it is, but once a soldier deserts their post, either they will go back willingly, or get caught and sent back; it's not like they deserted and were allowed to leave the country or deserted toward the Russians (Not massively happening while some individual case exist) or the Ukrainian will just let it go and not bother to look for him. If a soldier deserted the military, they are still in the country.
Now, the problem is, yes, Russians have an advantage in the absolute number (750,000 vs 400,000), but that is not much, which is the reason why we are seeing the Russian progress slowly, because they can only fight with local superiority. The problem is, as Ukraine loses territories, Troop Concentration increases as you need fewer troops to defend its land (Simply, you need fewer troops to defend if you have less land). So, there will be a time this advantage stops, especially since the Russians never had the conventional superiority (Attacker needs to be 3 times the size of the defender) this is the reason why Russia take longer to take towns and stablise their line, because their line is increasing, which mean you need more manpower to cover that (as in regenerating force), they don't have that either.
If this war is going on forever, or in a super long run, beyond say 20-30 years, yes, that advantage of raw manpower and raw recovery power is going to play a vital role in this war, But in a short term like 3 to 5 years, that advantage does not exist because both side does not have that much diffent in term of Troop Concentration.
In the military. We don't talk about manpower this way; the correct term is "Force Generation" and "Force Regeneration" because even if you have a 10 million force (which both sides actually can raise) that does not translate to you can put all 10 million soldiers on the ground. The soldier you can put on the ground depends on a multitude of factors. Including available manpower, support size, means of control (ie do you have enough people to lead them), and needs (ie, you have other needs for troop, rear echelon stuff, base defence, border defence, and so on) that make up the pie on how much troop you can put into a theater TO&E. And this magic number for both side now is roughly 750,000 for Russian and 400,000 for Ukraine. Judging from the number of divisions and brigades in the theater
Now, let's talk about Force Regeneration, in the shortest and briefest form, itis basically an equation of the following
Battlefield Loses (Desertion + Casualty + Regular Rotation) < New Troop
The number above means Russia needs to maintain a level of 750,000 troops in the theater to have a positive Force Regeneration, while the Ukrainians need to maintain it at 400,000
Both sides cannot match that because of several different factors. For Russia, casualties are simply too high to match that number; the Russian casualty is estimated to be 1.8-2.1% of the Ukrainian Casualty rate. The problem is, Russian forces is a lot bigger, which means in absolute numbers, you are talking about 150,000-200,000 new influx to maintain that net loss. The issue is, Russia is not recruiting enough people. Average Troop rotation is about 110,000-120,000 with conscripts.
On the Ukrainian side, first of all, the 400,000 troops they can put in battle are not enough to defend all these territories; they need 550,000 troops, which they also can barely match. Because of the training rate and recuperation rate. Contrary to what many people here believe, desertion is not a net loss of manpower. Well, if they get caught and are executed, then it is, but once a soldier deserts their post, either they will go back willingly, or get caught and sent back; it's not like they deserted and were allowed to leave the country or deserted toward the Russians (Not massively happening while some individual case exist) or the Ukrainian will just let it go and not bother to look for him. If a soldier deserted the military, they are still in the country.
Now, the problem is, yes, Russians have an advantage in the absolute number (750,000 vs 400,000), but that is not much, which is the reason why we are seeing the Russian progress slowly, because they can only fight with local superiority. The problem is, as Ukraine loses territories, Troop Concentration increases as you need fewer troops to defend its land (Simply, you need fewer troops to defend if you have less land). So, there will be a time this advantage stops, especially since the Russians never had the conventional superiority (Attacker needs to be 3 times the size of the defender) this is the reason why Russia take longer to take towns and stablise their line, because their line is increasing, which mean you need more manpower to cover that (as in regenerating force), they don't have that either.
If this war is going on forever, or in a super long run, beyond say 20-30 years, yes, that advantage of raw manpower and raw recovery power is going to play a vital role in this war, But in a short term like 3 to 5 years, that advantage does not exist because both side does not have that much diffent in term of Troop Concentration.
Viet
VIP Member
No comparison
France is big. And If you add french colonies (Vietnam included) then France army is massive. Hitler’s army beat the French by superior strength, not in numbers. Putin’s arny in contrast is much a bunch of hooligans. Russia loses 1,000 men a day in normal combat, much the figure Germans lost a day in worst day in Stalingrad.
Yommie
Elite Member
@Viet @AZ_HighCountry
Patriot with range 160 km can no longer stop Russian gliding bomb which has range increased from 60 km in 2023 to 90 km in 2024 to 190 km in 2025. American air defense is not keeping up with Russian bomb improvement.
Patriot with range 160 km can no longer stop Russian gliding bomb which has range increased from 60 km in 2023 to 90 km in 2024 to 190 km in 2025. American air defense is not keeping up with Russian bomb improvement.
Ru PoV - Evolution of Russian glide bombs (60km range in 2023, 90km in 2024, 190km in 2025) - Russian Telegram
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Washington informed NATO countries that Zelensky will face a worse deal if he does not sign the proposed peace agreement.
Zelensky's options are narrow: either continuing the war and losing American support, or losing the presidency and Donbas.
--
he should take the deal, as unpalatable as it is. future deals will only get worse as the frontline moves in Russia's favour (however slowly). Ukrainian public support for the war is falling rapidly. It's not going to get better.
Zelensky's options are narrow: either continuing the war and losing American support, or losing the presidency and Donbas.
--
he should take the deal, as unpalatable as it is. future deals will only get worse as the frontline moves in Russia's favour (however slowly). Ukrainian public support for the war is falling rapidly. It's not going to get better.
Yommie
Elite Member
Zelensky can always retire to Miami beachfront property and enjoy the sun.
Viet
VIP Member
you treat the old Soviet bombs as if they are magic weapons. The Russians just attach wings to those bombs. Putin’s arny almost use them as terror weapon. Bombing until the earth burns to ashes.
Anyway same same as elsewhere. if Trump’s army invades Venezuela now I am pretty sure US bombers will flat the Central American country to the Moon, too.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
What happens if Zelensky doesn't agree to your peace plan?
Trump: Then he can continue to fight his little heart out.
KingQamaR
Elite Member
I’m sorry This is it It's happening
Ukraine is running out of resources and so Russian advances increase in size
It's always been this way in attritional wars
Ukrainian and Russian is war of attrition numbers population etc matters.
Ukraine is running out of resources and so Russian advances increase in size
It's always been this way in attritional wars
Ukrainian and Russian is war of attrition numbers population etc matters.
GoatsMilk
Registered Member
Reading about what might be the terms of the new "peace" deal, you have to give it to the Americans, they've been able to f'k all sides to maximum benefit. And the way its been set up you can guarantee that a new round of war with Russia invading Ukraine again will probably occur 10 to 15 years down the line and the Americans get to exploit all sides over it again.
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