China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank

[Beijingwalker]

China will need at least 1 mil. Do you have enough ships?

How many ships and how long do you think China needs to cross a narrow strait with absolute air and firepower dominance.

 

[Beijingwalker]

ROC believed that the mighty Yangtze River was an unsurmountable barrier and China would stay divided like north Korea and south Korea along the river.
PLA crossed the mighty Yangtze River against million strong ROC defending troops in a matter of hours.

 

[Raiden]

That distance will be mined. How many PLA troops WILL die there? Of course, we can count on you not being part of the invasion force, right? You never served, never been in combat, and have no idea how long it can take to move just one mile. All the while, voices in the radio pushing you to move forward because they have to get off the transports as well.

So, let us assume the invasion will be in the Oct-Nov window. That mean China will start bombarding Taiwan for at least 30 days prior to the invasion. By the, the whole world will know what is coming. Trade to China will decrease. Traffic in the SCS will cease. If after 30 days, the PLA decide that Taiwan have not been properly 'tendersized', there will be no invasion.

I believe the invasion of Taiwan will be a messy slugfest. It certainly is not as easy as PDF board members would like to portray. It will neither be as quick nor as overwhelming. But the base problem remain. Taiwan is just a tiny island on its way to fight a massive continental power next door.

Let's say everything goes right for Taiwan during Chinese landings, for every munition that Taiwan throws at the Chinese, there's no guarantee that they will have a 1:1 replacement. And if war escalates to a certain level that compels Taiwan to raise the ammo expenditure level astronomically, that would be bad news for Taiwan's war effort as their domestic production won't cover their expenditure and it's questionable if military aid from their allies could even reach their ports.

The Ottomans, for example, knowing that previous conquest attempts towards Constantinople failed, erected the Rumelihisar fortress two years in advance before the main knockout blow. I see a China campaign in Taiwan would try to emulate a 21st-century equivalent of Mehmet's siege fortress against Constantinople, not with stones, but with their long-range missiles, ships and aircrafts.

China could spend years-long efforts to make sure that Taiwan keeps firing its missiles, and artillery to a PLA harassment until a certain point in time the PLA finds itself comfortable to finally land in Taiwan.

 

[Beijingwalker]

View attachment 23868

I can post dozens of photos of pathetic Indian POWs in 1962 and American POWs in 1951, do you have anything else to do rather than trolling?
Reported.

 

[Beijingwalker]

I never said Indian navy alone will chock you..... it's USA and allies that can chock you if you don't stay within your limits.....

Lol, what a name dropper, this is what US did when Chinese navy fought an US treaty bound "ally" .

The South Vietnamese fleet also received warnings that U.S. Navy radar had detected additional Chinese guided missile frigates and aircraft on their way from Hainan.

South Vietnam requested assistance from the U.S. Seventh Fleet, but the request was denied.

Battle of the Paracel Islands - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Han Patriot]

For how long? Do you dispute the time window in post 247?

Dude, look at the war in Ukraine. It has been 2 years, you see any NATO boots. I still remember Biden warning Putin don't cross the red line, don't cross the red line, and here we are 2 years later. How long will China take to pound Taiwan, i would say 1 year plus, as long as US don't start a hot war and stick to their 'we will support Taiwan' but we won't fight in Taiwan, then it can be relatively easy. Please stick to providing goods, nuclear powers don't want to start a hot war ok?

China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank

@Pingle Yeah but without nuclear subs for japs, am I right?.

defencepk.com

the invasion windows are April-May or Oct-Nov with 2-3 weeks each.​

​

The D-Day invasion had about 800K troops, for Taiwan, China will need at least 1 mil. Do you have enough ships? You can use civilian ships, but they are not built to quickly disembark fully loaded soldiers and vehicles.

Do you know the tide schedules? PLA troops may need to cross at least one mile of shallow water on foot, which will impede movement, while ships and troops would be under Taiwanese defense bombardment.

How many feasible landing sites? The Taiwanese know all of them.

In Desert Storm, the allies did not 'tendersized' all of Iraqi defenses. So what make you think you can do the same in Taiwan? The answer is 'No', you cannot. And given the narrow landing window you have, which the Taiwanese also know, all Taiwanese defense has to do is survive in sufficient numbers to focus on those landing sites.

That distance will be mined. How many PLA troops WILL die there? Of course, we can count on you not being part of the invasion force, right? You never served, never been in combat, and have no idea how long it can take to move just one mile. All the while, voices in the radio pushing you to move forward because they have to get off the transports as well.

So, let us assume the invasion will be in the Oct-Nov window. That mean China will start bombarding Taiwan for at least 30 days prior to the invasion. By the, the whole world will know what is coming. Trade to China will decrease. Traffic in the SCS will cease. If after 30 days, the PLA decide that Taiwan have not been properly 'tendersized', there will be no invasion.

I don't understand this Western obsesssion with invasion, Chinese think differently, we will not fight a war unless we can win it. As long as there isno direct war with US, we will pound Taiwan back to stone age. How long do you think Taiwan can last economically without food, power, water? Hungry people riot, and will start to rebel. There will be internal fighting and lastly they give up. You are against the world most powerful productive force ever seen by mankind. Win without fighting.

Look at Ukraine, the Russians had been nice, for the first year, most of their power was intact, water, communications were intact, heck they are even exporting food. Now imagine the opposite in Taiwan.

Do you understand Taiwanese people? I am Chinese and i know how they think, they are essentially woke snowflake Chinese ok. The moment starvation happens, all bets are off. All Chinese know this simple concept. Imagine giving them 2 choice, one starve to death fight8ng for 'freedom' and continue to be an American puppet or two don't starve and get invaded by your 'state capitalist' kin who is the second most powerful country on earth but with curtailed freedoms. It is a no brainer dude. Taiwanese are not Scottish brave hearts, ethnic Chinese only fight for their death if a foreign race invades them and threaten them with annihilation. If there is a chance to survive and prosper, hell why not join the motherland and bring the Chinese race to glory.


What about ammunition? You think Taiwan can produce all the parts? I can tell you for a fact that China can produce every parts for our domestic weapons ourselves. Not even US can do the same, check the latest post about 90+ Chinese suppliers to the major US arms manufacturers? Do you know why the Fujian coast had never been developed industrially compared to Pearl, Yangtze and Bohai? Despite having such a good geography? Until today there is no major industrial base there. The most Taiwan can do as seen by the Ukrainian experience is attack and damage adjacent province aka Fujian. We will sacrifice Xiamen for Taiwan, can Us sacrifice LA for Taiwan? Don't be stupid.

 

[Han Patriot]

I never said Indian navy alone will chock you..... it's USA and allies that can chock you if you don't stay within your limits..... you are technically landlocked and blockade prone...... discussion is over for me.....

Choke with what? You have a navy we have a navy, you sink our ships, we sink yours, it is that simple. No REAL power will fight directly, they use their sepoys. Lolol. Unless it is WW3, US wouldn't save you. Understand? Okay you have superb inglish. You can just simply change the definition of 'landlocked'. Gr8

See that base in Djbouti, Indian oil travels through that place. See that place in Jiwani, Pakistan, what do you think happens when Indian ships go through?

 

[Han Patriot]

How many ships and how long do you think China needs to cross a narrow strait with absolute air and firepower dominance.

View attachment 23863View attachment 23864View attachment 23865

Yah i forgot about the civillian navy, all Chinese fishing vesssels sailors have reservist status. Hope numb numbs know it

 

[BHAN85]

I think USA is aggressive against Russia since 2010s decade when their deployed several anti ICBM systems, USA seems to be assured of repel any Russia nuclear first strike agaisnt them, and they dont care about do provocations to Russia in Europe, like 2013 Ukraine Maidan.

Then... the question is... what will happen when China will develop a similar anti-ICBM technology and they will be assured of repel any USA first strike?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/19/china/china-anti-ballistic-missile-test-intl-hnk/index.html

Since 1990s decade to today, a huge development has been experienced in the field of processors and sensors, just see a cellphone of 1990s and one of 2020s, so maybe today military cutting edge technology allows stop a full nuclear strike, and that's the reason because USA is so brave against Russia.

By the other side, if you want to see differences between military cutting edge technology between USA and China, you can see Boeing X-37B program.
Chinese spacecraft X-37B has a delay of 12 years respect to USA original X-37B.
So if USA started provocations to Russia in 2013, maybe China will start provocations to USA in some moment of 2013+12 = 2025 year.

Chinese reusable experimental spacecraft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[War Lord]

Yup a paper tiger who kicked some arse in 62' and Doklam. Lolol

Same paper tiger who decided to show off to Taiwan pre-90's until some US carriers came and strolled right past the Chinese coast in a show of force.

China could never do anything to them back then and just went quiet. Working diligently ever since to cross the 1st Island Chain Line.

Still can't do it!

Keep making cheap junk tho, it's was a good economic trap that worked quite well.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Same paper tiger who decided to show off to Taiwan pre-90's until some US carriers came and strolled right past the Chinese coast in a show of force.

China could never do anything to them back then and just went quiet. Working diligently ever since to cross the 1st Island Chain Line.

Still can't do it!

Keep making cheap junk tho, it's was a good economic trap that worked quite well.

True paper tiger

The South Vietnamese fleet also received warnings that U.S. Navy radar had detected additional Chinese guided missile frigates and aircraft on their way from Hainan.

South Vietnam requested assistance from the U.S. Seventh Fleet, but the request was denied.

Battle of the Paracel Islands - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ety]

Keep making cheap junk tho, it's was a good economic trap that worked quite well.

Lol, much better than your Indian junks, smell sour grape.

 

[War Lord]

I can post dozens of photos of pathetic Indian POWs in 1962 and American POWs in 1951, do you have anything else to do rather than trolling?
Reported.

Same can be done for Chinese POW's from China's foreign adventures.

 

[War Lord]

True paper tiger

Battle of the Paracel Islands - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That's nothing compared to the loss of Taiwan. US never took action either in that battle so it was really easy for China to takeover. That's what China does best, take over islands belonging to other weaker nations while dreaming about taking islands from stronger nations like Taiwan and US.

 

[Beijingwalker]

That's nothing compared to the loss of Taiwan. US never took action either in that battle so it was really easy for China to takeover. That's what China does best, take over islands belonging to other weaker nations while dreaming about taking islands from stronger nations like Taiwan and US.

Stronger nation? you mean ROC? but why US ditched its decades long ally ROC in 1979 for PRC in the first place?