PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[ghazi52]

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[Desprado123]

The 3rd B3 sqdn was produced for PAF but the Azerbaijan deal was given delivery priority.
I'm not sure if this was such a good idea

Not a good idea to be honest.

 

[Ali_Baba]

IMHO PAF is already committed to J-10CE. Their primary concern is obsolescence of over 100 aircraft in the next couple of years, if not earlier,-- 6+ squadrons!! IAF is committed to Rafael.. so no brainer there. IAF is however contemplating between SU-57 and somewhat watered down F-35!! That will take another four to five years to pan out for IAF. Same time lines as PAF, if we go for J-35 or KAAN.

The fact is that there are no new orders for JFT III and our ability to produce new build aircraft are limited to 20+ a/c per year. PFX is altleast 4 to 5 years away.

The real issue, I think, is funds and the new twist in equation of US relations warming up. If the defence pacts pans out with KSA and others and we are able to package the deals properly, then we can source some funds for our replacement programs rather quickly. I think that is the "Wait " we are witnessing.

Pakistan maybe able to do PFX-Alpha, ie more local build of the JF17 with some new local systems but that will be the limit of the "PFX programme". A new PFX Platform will never happen at all, that is the same fantasy AHQ has cooked up, that was the original Azm project, I am quite certain of that.

 

[Starlord]

At this point I will be surprised if we order another J-10CE sq, we heard so much good about J-10CE but then we stopped at only 20 jets, I always thought we had at least 50-60 block 3's but I guess we have roughly what ? 30ish ? F-7PG's and Mirages are flown today but skilled pilots and that's a huge risk, Machine can be replaced but Pilot can't be. I really hope that PAF is looking to induct at least 1 J-10CE sq and 1 JF-17blk3 while upgrading the F-Shola.

 

[Corax]

The 3rd B3 sqdn was produced for PAF but the Azerbaijan deal was given delivery priority.
I'm not sure if this was such a good idea

If that is the case, I'd be interested to know if there were any changes in the specs to change these from PAF to AAF birds.

 

[hussain0216]

Pakistan maybe able to do PFX-Alpha, ie more local build of the JF17 with some new local systems but that will be the limit of the "PFX programme". A new PFX Platform will never happen at all, that is the same fantasy AHQ has cooked up, that was the original Azm project, I am quite certain of that.

Would we be able to follow the same route of the JF17 program?

Get a whole bunch of help through China or maybe Turkey and come out with a PFX solution that we can increasingly indigenise over time

My understanding is that we can make approx 76% of the JF17 in house now

The azeri JF17s had a bunch of additional changes that we can incorporate

And the project looks set for further export orders

I can see a long run for the JF17 and any follow on projects because I think it fills a massive hole that multiple countries need filled and PFX could In theory be funded through these export orders

 

[Ali_Baba]

At this point I will be surprised if we order another J-10CE sq, we heard so much good about J-10CE but then we stopped at only 20 jets, I always thought we had at least 50-60 block 3's but I guess we have roughly what ? 30ish ? F-7PG's and Mirages are flown today but skilled pilots and that's a huge risk, Machine can be replaced but Pilot can't be. I really hope that PAF is looking to induct at least 1 J-10CE sq and 1 JF-17blk3 while upgrading the F-Shola.

- The is the hopeful part of that wants to think that PAF is hoarding money for the J-35 procurement and it will dispose of the small fleet of J10CEs once the J-35A turns up and they will go in big on J-35A's.
- There is the thoughful part of me that thinks that PAF thinks it has the IAF "covered" for now with what it has and it wants to see if the IAF inks for more Rafales, or Su57I/E's or goes for F-35s or even GCAP/FCAS etc before deciding what to do next.
- There is a moderately hopeful part that says PAF will purchase more JF17Cs, upgrade the existing F16s only with moderate resources and go for more J10CE.
- There is the fearful part of me that is wondering if PAF is hoarding money for "new" build F16Vs and it will delay the J-35A procurement as well as further JF17Cs and J10CE's for this.
- There is the nightmare type of fear that PAF has no money at all, not even a pot to piss in right now for anything, and the best it can do is stop all procurements for everything and sell JF17Cs at bargain basement prices to keep the line open for as long as they can manage.

Not sure, which of my personalities to listen to right now or what is going on tbh. Time will tell.

 

[Starlord]

- The is the hopeful part of that wants to think that PAF is hoarding money for the J-35 procurement and it will dispose of the small fleet of J10CEs once the J-35A turns up and they will go in big on J-35A's.
- There is the thoughful part of me that thinks that PAF thinks it has the IAF "covered" for now with what it has and it wants to see if the IAF inks for more Rafales, or Su57I/E's or goes for F-35s or even GCAP/FCAS etc before deciding what to do next.
- There is a moderately hopeful part that says PAF will purchase more JF17Cs, upgrade the existing F16s only with moderate resources and go for more J10CE.
- There is the fearful part of me that is wondering if PAF is hoarding money for "new" build F16Vs and it will delay the J-35A procurement as well as further JF17Cs and J10CE's for this.
- There is the nightmare type of fear that PAF has no money at all, not even a pot to piss in right now for anything, and the best it can do is stop all procurements for everything and sell JF17Cs at bargain basement prices to keep the line open for as long as they can manage.

Not sure, which of my personalities to listen to right now or what is going on tbh. Time will tell.

I mean we are told from the beginning that Pakistan is always short of money but at the same time if we need something we eventually gets it to keep India at bay. Now PAF is hoarding money but I see they sign 2 Maintenance and upgrade deals with US for F-16's, now its good because F-16's are awesome fighters, but if we believe the some Mr I know it all guys on PDF we are paying that bill from our pockets, not CSF or AID coming.

I do not believe that we will get J-35's before 2030, it will be miracle if that happens and TBH i don't think we should, we have hold IAF off with just F-16's/J-10CE and Jeff's so why not increase the numbers and wait for J35 to mature?

According to some we have roughly 5-6 sqs needed replacement in next few years, so if we just add 1 JF B3 sq, 1 J-10CE sq and 1 New F-16's and maybe few used F-16's that will give PAF fighting capability until the 5th gen comes into the picture, its not like IAF is gonna induct 100's of Rafales and Su57's in next 3-4 years anyway, the most we would see will be 20-30 more Rafales and 1-2 sqs of Teja bhai if we get lucky.

Its funny to see how PDF gets divided, few people goes on full rants over how J35's coming soon to those who will say we have no money for even nuts and bolts, I mean if we don't have money how are we paying 600+ million dollars for F-16 upgrade? or 450 Million dollars for F-16's maintenance? that's from our means PAF pockets too...

 

[PakShaheen_79]

On PAF's lack of modern SOW:
It is reality and what we saw in May 2025 conflict was the outcome of PAF's historic blunder of turning itself into a completely defensive force with focus on "Defending" the skies only and not preparing for "Punishing Back" the enemy.
I have been saying it since ages that fundamental flaw in PAF's strategic mindset that led to this situation is it being a purely defense oritened force. Look at its fighter fleet in terms of weapon carrying capacities and ranges and then compare it to IAF's 10-Squadron strong fleet of SU-30MKI where each can carry nearly 8 tons of ordinance. Its bigger size allows it to carry weapons like Brahmos for which PAF has very little to no defense. (as we saw in May 2025 conflict). PAF has always told us because Pakistan does not has geopolitical ambitions hence it is contended with its light Multirole fighters like F-16s and JF-17s. No real strike platform. ROSE project itself was a desperate attempt to have some kind of SOW capability after pressler amendments. First time PAF suffered from lack of this capability was Kargil and that was in 1999. Now why do I say it is flawed mindset. Apart from IAF's strength in A2G capabilities, we will also have to take into account the geographical strength of India. It has massive land mass and in Indian Ocean it has even bigger space to manuvear and lure Pakistani single engine light to medium weight multirole fighters deep into its territory in a Kill-Box of S-400 and other advanced long range SAMs. In absense of a true long range, heavy weight bomber fighter (J-16 type), PAF will never be able to neutralize deep embedded IACCS nodes, SAM sites, IAF bases, C2 nodes etc. Leave all those aside, PAF will not even be able to neutralize all those massive ammuniton dumps and Earth Covered Magazines (ECMs) there. Look at this image, this facility is just one of dozens more like this...

How much aerial firepower required to deal with all those ECMs in this single ammunition dump near Ambala? PAF always required heavy bombers with powerful long range A2G weapons (ideally with Penetrator warheads). Look at Israel. A tiny state and still operating more than 160 F-15s. Why? Because it is not about the size of Israel but the size of its adversaries. All Arab nations. How Pakistan's situation is different? We are also upagainst an adversary that has massive land advantage. Only way to overcome this is to have something that can provide both range and firepower. Lastly, for those who still have doubts, think why China is developing H-20 despite having various types of Flankers, J-20, and J-10Cs. It's never about your size or ambitions ... it is always about the capability of your adversary which must dictate your war prepardness.

Thanks for reading.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Total order was iof 36. Not sure how many will be twin-seater.

Was an order for 36 even placed or was there just an option of 16 more if required?

So far, I've not heard of any credible source saying 36 were ordered but just a lot of wishing and assumptions on this forum due to Pakistan's previous purchases of this nature.

 

[Ali_Baba]

I do not believe that we will get J-35's before 2030, it will be miracle if that happens and TBH i don't think we should, we have hold IAF off with just F-16's/J-10CE and Jeff's so why not increase the numbers and wait for J35 to mature?

Buying, supporting and maintaining the J10CE fleet will cost money, and if you consider the future fleet, unless PAF actually commits to buy 80-90 of the J10CE to make it a long term viable and "cost effective" fleet in the PAF, it would actually be better off getting rid of the J10CE in favor of the J35A to reduce the variety in its fleet. Are we witnessing this play out already with the PAF not committing to more J10CEs? i.e. they were purchased to solve an immediate problem while they wait to get the J35A onboard asap.

What is the ideal "future" fleet for the PAF? It would look like KAAN, J35A and and JF17/PFX-Alpha as the manned fighters. We know it will buy the KANN because of all the neighboring ecosystem of drones/UCAVs that Pakistan is also buying i.e. PAF ideally having just 3 different fighter types. Yes, PAF has historically been "forced" to operate more different types of planes than it ever wanted to, because of procurement restrictions but the model of an "ideal fleet" has always been there in the PAF, it is just that it could never achieve it, i.e. F16s. Keeping hold of the J10CE would mean it will eventually require its own dedicated MRO infrastructure that PAF has in place for all the other fighters and that itself eats up money which needs to be a consideration.

So, while waiting for the J35A to mature is sensible, I do think with the new development and testing practices of the Chinese right now, that the maturity curve is a lot more mature for the J35A that any other fighter they have ever inducted simply because the act of creating the platform has meant the development and testing practices themselves have also improved massively to.

It is a judgement call of course, and PAF will decide so lets see. I do think (IMHO) that PAF wants to move to the J35A far more aggressively than it has ever done for other fighter types and I think( no evidence, just intuition ) that they will not hold onto the J10CEs once the J35A's start rolling in.

 

[Quwa]

Yes, if memory serves me right, Gen. Musharraf expressed his intent to buy J-10 while returning from China. I think this was in 2006(?), while Zardari came to power in 2008. PAF was not satisfied with J-10A and was leaning towards more advanced F-16s, which were also feasible because of the American military and financial assistance.

Conspiracy theories are fun, especially when those peddling them cannot hold their narrative straight. I am not privy to what went wrong with the Mirage-2000 deal with France, but I have seen people who blame BB+Zardari for the deal's demise simultaneously claim that the French were ripping us off and it was best that the deal did not go through.

@Quwa might have better knowledge on both instances.

PAF tried getting M2K/-5 in the 1990s, but the French Ministry of Finance didn't want to extend a loan ($3-4 B, a lot at the time) and the PA didn't want to make a massive cash down payment due to the T-80UD.

By the early 2000s, Dassault was winding down M2,K production, so the only route was ex-French Air Force fighters. ACM Mushaf Ali Mir had been negotiating for those while also pushing for F-16s. I think that was an either/or situation as once the Block-52 was approved, the PAF went with those rather than used M2K-5s.

That said, even when the F-16s were approved, the PAF has a Plus One program, i.e. another fighter. That's where the J-10/FC-20 stuff started coming up.

 

[PakShaheen_79]

PAF tried getting M2K/-5 in the 1990s, but the French Ministry of Finance didn't want to extend a loan ($3-4 B, a lot at the time) and the PA didn't want to make a massive cash down payment due to the T-80UD.

By the early 2000s, Dassault was winding down M2,K production, so the only route was ex-French Air Force fighters. ACM Mushaf Ali Mir had been negotiating for those while also pushing for F-16s. I think that was an either/or situation as once the Block-52 was approved, the PAF went with those rather than used M2K-5s.

That said, even when the F-16s were approved, the PAF has a Plus One program, i.e. another fighter. That's where the J-10/FC-20 stuff started coming up.

Vivdly remember those discussions on previous PDF forum Extremely exicited times. JF-17 was entering into service. LCA was nowhere to be seen and daily trolling of Indians and enjoying small successes of PAF and then
یہ ہوا کہ ہم بڑے ہو گئے۔

 

[AeronautIR]

On PAF's lack of modern SOW:
It is reality and what we saw in May 2025 conflict was the outcome of PAF's historic blunder of turning itself into a completely defensive force with focus on "Defending" the skies only and not preparing for "Punishing Back" the enemy.
I have been saying it since ages that fundamental flaw in PAF's strategic mindset that led to this situation is it being a purely defense oritened force. Look at its fighter fleet in terms of weapon carrying capacities and ranges and then compare it to IAF's 10-Squadron strong fleet of SU-30MKI where each can carry nearly 8 tons of ordinance. Its bigger size allows it to carry weapons like Brahmos for which PAF has very little to no defense. (as we saw in May 2025 conflict). PAF has always told us because Pakistan does not has geopolitical ambitions hence it is contended with its light Multirole fighters like F-16s and JF-17s. No real strike platform. ROSE project itself was a desperate attempt to have some kind of SOW capability after pressler amendments. First time PAF suffered from lack of this capability was Kargil and that was in 1999. Now why do I say it is flawed mindset. Apart from IAF's strength in A2G capabilities, we will also have to take into account the geographical strength of India. It has massive land mass and in Indian Ocean it has even bigger space to manuvear and lure Pakistani single engine light to medium weight multirole fighters deep into its territory in a Kill-Box of S-400 and other advanced long range SAMs. In absense of a true long range, heavy weight bomber fighter (J-16 type), PAF will never be able to neutralize deep embedded IACCS nodes, SAM sites, IAF bases, C2 nodes etc. Leave all those aside, PAF will not even be able to neutralize all those massive ammuniton dumps and Earth Covered Magazines (ECMs) there. Look at this image, this facility is just one of dozens more like this...
View attachment 166432
How much aerial firepower required to deal with all those ECMs in this single ammunition dump near Ambala? PAF always required heavy bombers with powerful long range A2G weapons (ideally with Penetrator warheads). Look at Israel. A tiny state and still operating more than 160 F-15s. Why? Because it is not about the size of Israel but the size of its adversaries. All Arab nations. How Pakistan's situation is different? We are also upagainst an adversary that has massive land advantage. Only way to overcome this is to have something that can provide both range and firepower. Lastly, for those who still have doubts, think why China is developing H-20 despite having various types of Flankers, J-20, and J-10Cs. It's never about your size or ambitions ... it is always about the capability of your adversary which must dictate your war prepardness.

Thanks for reading.

A very long post with some inferences which are quite strange for me... what did IAF achieve with Brahmos and SCALP hits? Apart from optics of those satellite pictures, nothing was gained. Whereas PAF achieved all the required targets in surface attack role.
Su-30 MKI is a liability against modern AESA equipped smaller aircraft with long range BVRs like PL-15.

 

[AeronautIR]

Was an order for 36 even placed or was there just an option of 16 more if required?

So far, I've not heard of any credible source saying 36 were ordered but just a lot of wishing and assumptions on this forum due to Pakistan's previous purchases of this nature.

I don't know whether you will consider me a credible source or not but PAF has planned acquisition of 2 sqn each of J-10C and J-35.
Apart from these, the plans to upgrade F-16 or PFX project's pace will become clear in a year or so. With 2 JF-17 blk 3 squadrons and may be upgrade of block 2 with AESA is more than enough for current IAF inventory. Any new capability like more Rafale, Tejas Mk2 or even if they go for Su-57 is literally years away.