it's hard to see a path forward here. IRI cannot sit and wait like last time. The rules of the game have changed. They need to take drastic action or prepare for drastic action to be forced onto them.
I am going to make a bold prediction which could very well be wrong. But I don’t think the Supreme Leader survives this year.
He is the obstacle to detente and he doesn’t want his legacy to be that Iran collapsed with his consent. This inflexibility will turn the factions of the republic against him. And they will determine he has to go.
So just like Rafsanjani had a “heart attack” in the swimming pool, the same mysterious outcome will happen for the leader, likely presented as passing from old age in his sleep. Let’s not forget Khomeini’s son also died under mysterious circumstances years ago. The factions are not afraid to kill off their own when it comes to Machiavelli level power games.
Time and time again in Roman history and Persian history, when the obstacle is one largely person….that obstacle is eliminated to give rise to a new path. Especially in a republic when factions jockey for power.
There was a IRGC commander who gave the interview a few years into the Syrian war who said the IRGC was divided on what to do with Assad when the capital was surrounded. Many thought that Iran should partner with the West in a deal to retain influence (à la Iraq post 2003) and then there was the camp who said they should prop up Assad. This camp ultimately won out as the SL also sided with this camp. The interview took place after the imminent threat to Assad was squashed (at the time) so it was positioned as the right decision.
My thoughts are knowing that the IRGC is not always unison in their thoughts. I think now the IRGC is gonna become more pragmatic and self serving. The camp that wanted to be involved in proxy groups and the Palestinian project are largely dead - Solemani and the cohorts that built the AoR all died in Syria, Lebanon, and in the 12 day war etc.
The survivors I believe have become much more pragmatic and nationalistic. You even see it in the billboards now across the country. I think the Axis of Resistance project is largely been considered a failure.
Trump wants an “easy” clean solution. He’s not interested in long messy conflicts. He has a short attention span. I think if the SL is taken care of. The government will reform itself as “moderate”. The clerics will be sent back to Qom. Hassan Khomeini (who is much more moderate) might become the figure head of the cleric side. The position of SL would be disbanded and it will go back to either a president or parliamentary system with a National Security council type transitional leadership.
The IRGC and Artesh will be rehabilitated as a new entity and packaged and sold as someone the US can do business with.
It is widely accepted now by even the U.S.. that the worst decision the U.S. made when invading Iraq was disbanding the entire Baathist party and Iraqi military rebuilding from scratch. It will try to avoid that in future cases and especially in Iran. It will keep the power structures in place and rehabilitate the state rather than nation building from scratch.
I think any agreement is basically the capitulation as stated above. Without the SL, I think the factions of the republic will vote to take the deal.
Let me be clear:
iran has hit a dead end and is in its final throes of life. With Trump in power 3 more years, it’s unlikely Iran can wait it out without a miracle or a life line being thrown by China/Russia.
