Venezuela hasn't folded
The U.S doesn't have the numbers for boots on the ground
The regime in Venezuela is still in place
You do realize Venezuela is reliant on U.S. oil companies right? Even Maduro publically said he wanted US oil companies back in Venezuela. Their crude is heavy sour crude which is a pain in the ass to refine and requires special refineries….located in the U.S.
Venezuela wasn’t an enemy of the U.S. until just recently when they tilted closer to iran and China.
How do you think they got F-16s? Who do you think helped prop up their oil industry?
Maduro wasn’t even well liked. His vice president is more of a Chavist than he could ever dream.
Eventually Venezuela and the Chavists will go back to being neutral and not allowing US enemies to gain a foothold in South America.
Can they hit iran? Sure..
But then it's upto Iran to respond
For how long? How many conflicts? Most of Iran’s foreign reserves are frozen. The currency is in free fall. Drought conditions in most of the country. Water supply is depleting due to decades of mismanagement.
Iran cannot punch its way out of this.
Like it or not, sooner or later the IRGC will reform itself as a suitable partner that the U.S. can deal with. Just as Jolani went from Al-Queda/ISIS warlord to pragmatic politician once he got a taste of power.
Iran’s power factions aren’t not going to bet their future on the fortunes of an 87 year old man who might not be around in 2 years. Once he is gone there is no figure who can command the final word like Khomeini and Khamenai were able to.
Eventually the factions of the Republic will decide staying under war and sanctions for another 3 years isn’t going to lead anywhere. The next US president isn’t going to let Iran have a large nuclear program either because Trump set the precedent that zero enrichment. So any concession of enrichment by a future democrat president (if they win) will be taken as treacherous by Congress.
You can’t fight forever with dwindling foreign currency reserves (that you cannot access) and little international trade.
The whole world is moving towards robotics and AI. Meanwhile, how many AI data centers is Iran building? How much power generation capability does it have to supply its own AI industry? Where is its robotics advancement?
Iran is already far behind other leading countries in technologies that will dominate the next 25 years.