Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[Comandante]

In any case, it would be good if God appeared to Khamenei and enlightened his mind. Because the next time the US, Israeli commandos will knock on his door at night. You made so many mistakes and had so many misfortunes in the 12-day war that even this could happen. I am not a believer in the atomic bomb, but this misfortune could affect the lives of many people.

 

[OldTwilight]

we should have nukes ....

 

[ToddE]

There is no nuclear doctrine in Iran. Khamenei banned nukes which could have been built in 90s if he wanted. This group of fools will be gone in few days. Whoever takes charge after this will kiss the nuclear program and missile power a goodbye to appease US and Israel. Iran will be allowed a non-strategic conventional harmless military like KSA or Turkey with few useless shiny jets and imported helis and BS. IRI drove Iran into this mess.

 

[vizier]

There is the fear of when high losses israel can use tactical nukes. Or like if trump starts the fight and a carrier gets hit he would go nuts after casualties and use tactical nukes.
It can happen. It happened in Japan. You need to use your mind and take precautions for all situations.

In my opinion the next best thing than nuclear deterrence is ballistic missiles having radioactive dust warheads. So if a tactical nuke is used then they can be sure that radioactive dust will explode over 5km over tel aviv and have some 10km footprint like little chernobyl. It can be also used on any tactical or strategic area like farm areas. There would be no farming for next 10k years in that city state if they want it that way. So no nukes will be used.

It will radiate large areas and those areas wont be suitable for settlers living for a very very long time. Of course this would be the worst case scenario if a nuke is used against you and kind of like a doomsday option which noone wants to use but if you dont have nukes what would be the next possible thing for deterrence if it is used against you. Taking out dimona reactor is another solution. But I am not sure it would be as effective.

 

[Nightlamp]

There is no nuclear doctrine in Iran. Khamenei banned nukes which could have been built in 90s if he wanted. This group of fools will be gone in few days. Whoever takes charge after this will kiss the nuclear program and missile power a goodbye to appease US and Israel. Iran will be allowed a non-strategic conventional harmless military like KSA or Turkey with few useless shiny jets and imported helis and BS. IRI drove Iran into this mess.

So you’re telling everyone that Khamenei has been enriching uranium for 20 years deep under mountains, losing trillions in economic value due sanctions, just so he can make medical isotopes?

 

[BigMela2onin]

There is the fear of when high losses israel can use tactical nukes. Or like if trump starts the fight and a carrier gets hit he would go nuts after casualties and use tactical nukes.
It can happen. It happened in Japan. You need to use your mind and take precautions for all situations.

In my opinion the next best thing than nuclear deterrence is ballistic missiles having radioactive dust warheads. So if a tactical nuke is used then they can be sure that radioactive dust will explode over 5km over tel aviv and have some 10km footprint like little chernobyl. It can be also used on any tactical or strategic area like farm areas. There would be no farming for next 10k years in that city state if they want it that way. So no nukes will be used.

It will radiate large areas and those areas wont be suitable for settlers living for a very very long time. Of course this would be the worst case scenario if a nuke is used against you and kind of like a doomsday option which noone wants to use but if you dont have nukes what would be the next possible thing for deterrence if it is used against you. Taking out dimona reactor is another solution. But I am not sure it would be as effective.

Any "weapon of mass destruction" is deemed "un-islamic" by the cuck mullahs.

So you’re telling everyone that Khamenei has been enriching uranium for 20 years deep under mountains, losing trillions in economic value due sanctions, just so he can make medical isotopes?

Yes pretty much.

 

[vizier]

Any "weapon of mass destruction" is deemed "un-islamic" by the cuck mullahs.

It kills plants but unlike a neutron bomb it does not directly kill. Unless they refuse to leave and stay there then they would have serious health issues. It is an area denial option that if the other guy has nukes would think twice before using it even if he is a mad man.

Since that area has a symbolic highly ideological-religeous meaning for them the z.s and minions simply cannot accept that possibility to leave that area. So they or the client states they are in control wont be using nukes against you.

But still nukes are better ofcourse just for better deterrence. Not to use them but to make other guy not to use theirs. But building radioactive dust-warheads or uranium mini bullets warhead would suffice.

 

[ToddE]

So you’re telling everyone that Khamenei has been enriching uranium for 20 years deep under mountains, losing trillions in economic value due sanctions, just so he can make medical isotopes?

You have zero understanding. Iran started its nuclear program under Shah with US and Israeli partnership. The smuggled parts, blueprints post revolution came during late tenure of Khomeini who was aggressively pursuing the program. Result of this, as per Israelis and US, Iran could field out nuclear weapons (deployable warheads) in 90s, read project Amad papers released by Mossad and CIA. They assumed Iran had somewhere around 5-10 devices with ready multi-entry neutron guns installed on them, to be fitted in RV of now retired Shahab-3 MRBM.

Khamenei politicized the program through Ahmadinejad when he allowed him to threaten "annihilation of Israel", attracting global Jew and their controlled west's animosity towards Iranian nuclear program. This was a deliberate move to make sure Iran will never get nuclear arsenal. Why did he do that ? conspiracy theorists will say he hates Iran and there is some truth to it as he said during the war that Iran is not important. But, there is another more visible angle to it as well. IRI served its purpose and was already dying as a faulty political idea at start of 2000s. Khatami-Clinton breakthrough was immense and Marg Bar Amerika slogan had less meaning anymore. Baathism was no longer a threat either. Khamenei's IRI (including his hardlienr gang) needed something to rally people around them for political survival and nuclear program served that purpose just fine. I mean he could have penalized A-nejad for his annhilation threats to another country but instead he frauded the elections to get him selected again. Iranian nuclear program could have delivered WGU in Amad devices silently while maintaining Khatami like friendly approach towards west but instead they refused to weaponise yet kept the threatening posture so that (A) local population rally around them, seeing them as saviour of Iran. SIlent nuclear armament wont give them that legitimacy (B) Regime can play the blackmailing card against west which it successfully did for 25 years. Whenever they wanted, they would say shit against US and Israel and then Khamenei will push liberal reformists dous of Rohani-Zarif and Pezeshkian-Aragchi to talk with west. He had ZERO and I mean ZERO intention of strategically arming of Iran at any point.

What stopped IRI otherwise from pushing HEU to WGU ? IRI-8 is one of the worlds most efficient centrifuge design. Fakhrizadeh himself patented IR-2/3, IR-4 and later 4M, the highly efficient C-fiber design native to Iran, thats 1990s and early 2000s. If weaponisation was the intention they could have shut Ahmadinejad's motor mouth and quickly installed hundreds and thousands of IR-4M, IR-8/9 for WGU. IRGCASF has worlds class delivery system I men but the real focus was using nuclear program as a baragining chip for regimes survival and nothing else.

 

[Nightlamp]

You have zero understanding. Iran started its nuclear program under Shah with US and Israeli partnership. The smuggled parts, blueprints post revolution came during late tenure of Khomeini who was aggressively pursuing the program. Result of this, as per Israelis and US, Iran could field out nuclear weapons (deployable warheads) in 90s, read project Amad papers released by Mossad and CIA. They assumed Iran had somewhere around 5-10 devices with ready multi-entry neutron guns installed on them, to be fitted in RV of now retired Shahab-3 MRBM.

Khamenei politicized the program through Ahmadinejad when he allowed him to threaten "annihilation of Israel", attracting global Jew and their controlled west's animosity towards Iranian nuclear program. This was a deliberate move to make sure Iran will never get nuclear arsenal. Why did he do that ? conspiracy theorists will say he hates Iran and there is some truth to it as he said during the war that Iran is not important. But, there is another more visible angle to it as well. IRI served its purpose and was already dying as a faulty political idea at start of 2000s. Khatami-Clinton breakthrough was immense and Marg Bar Amerika slogan had less meaning anymore. Baathism was no longer a threat either. Khamenei's IRI (including his hardlienr gang) needed something to rally people around them for political survival and nuclear program served that purpose just fine. I mean he could have penalized A-nejad for his annhilation threats to another country but instead he frauded the elections to get him selected again. Iranian nuclear program could have delivered WGU in Amad devices silently while maintaining Khatami like friendly approach towards west but instead they refused to weaponise yet kept the threatening posture so that (A) local population rally around them, seeing them as saviour of Iran. SIlent nuclear armament wont give them that legitimacy (B) Regime can play the blackmailing card against west which it successfully did for 25 years. Whenever they wanted, they would say shit against US and Israel and then Khamenei will push liberal reformists dous of Rohani-Zarif and Pezeshkian-Aragchi to talk with west. He had ZERO and I mean ZERO intention of strategically arming of Iran at any point.

What stopped IRI otherwise from pushing HEU to WGU ? IRI-8 is one of the worlds most efficient centrifuge design. Fakhrizadeh himself patented IR-2/3, IR-4 and later 4M, the highly efficient C-fiber design native to Iran, thats 1990s and early 2000s. If weaponisation was the intention they could have shut Ahmadinejad's motor mouth and quickly installed hundreds and thousands of IR-4M, IR-8/9 for WGU. IRGCASF has worlds class delivery system I men but the real focus was using nuclear program as a baragining chip for regimes survival and nothing else.

I know the history of the Iranian program. As you rightly stated, your viewpoint leans heavily into conspiracy theory. The Iranian government’s policy mistakes didn’t start with Ahmadinajed- It started right at the revolution with the takeover of the US embassy. Iran’s leadership is clergy based and their worldview is at times shaped by religious fundamentalism and not reality.

Antagonistic attitudes and politics vis-a-vis the US are just part of that and not some crazy conspiracy theory to use the nuclear program as some sort of bargaining chip.

By all objective analysis, Khamenei is building a large scale program that was (at least before the latest US strikes) intended to field a large nuclear weapons arsenal.

I have theorized prior, that places like Fordow are not breakout facilities, but specifically designed to enrich for mass production of nuclear weapons. The US and Israel know this. As such, they understand they can not prevent Iran from technical “breakout” if Iran decides to do so at a clandestine site.

In my theory, the US and Israel are fine with this, shaping their policy under the assumption that a few warheads do not change the strategic calculus between US/Israel and Iran. I.e, containment.

There is more to this idea but for now I think this will do. Suffice to say that Iran hasn’t been enriching for 20 years just so they can use uranium as a bargaining chip in order to have Mastercard and McDonald’s.

 

[ToddE]

I know the history of the Iranian program. As you rightly stated, your viewpoint leans heavily into conspiracy theory. The Iranian government’s policy mistakes didn’t start with Ahmadinajed- It started right at the revolution with the takeover of the US embassy. Iran’s leadership is clergy based and their worldview is at times shaped by religious fundamentalism and not reality.

Antagonistic attitudes and politics vis-a-vis the US are just part of that and not some crazy conspiracy theory to use the nuclear program as some sort of bargaining chip.

By all objective analysis, Khamenei is building a large scale program that was (at least before the latest US strikes) intended to field a large nuclear weapons arsenal.

I have theorized prior, that places like Fordow are not breakout facilities, but specifically designed to enrich for mass production of nuclear weapons. The US and Israel know this. As such, they understand they can not prevent Iran from technical “breakout” if Iran decides to do so at a clandestine site.

In my theory, the US and Israel are fine with this, shaping their policy under the assumption that a few warheads do not change the strategic calculus between US/Israel and Iran. I.e, containment.

There is more to this idea but for now I think this will do. Suffice to say that Iran hasn’t been enriching for 20 years just so they can use uranium as a bargaining chip in order to have Mastercard and McDonald’s.

If you would have spent time reading about Amad project leak by Israel and US and timeline of Iranian nuclear activities instead of using AI, you would have understood the role Khamenei alone has played in keep Iran away from nuclear weapons for domestic strengthening of his regime. He is not interested in putting Iran at its right place in global stage using its highly educated (STEM leaders) population, he is not interested in using worlds 2nd largest hydrocarbon reserves for his people, he is not interested in strengthening the defence. He is just a power merchant, a politician in the end who wants to stick himself to the chair at all costs. He pushed Ahmadinejad to politicize the nuclear program by openly threatening annihilation of Jews, he pushed reformists to make deals with west for his IRI survival using the bargaining chip he created through Mr. Stupidnejad. Had his intention been the nuclear weapons, the capability, the delivery system was ready 25-30 years ago, much before DPRK.

Also Khamenei is no religious zealot, among his group of Ayatollahs him and Rafsanjani were the most moderate ones. He is a very clever politician, thats all.

 

[Flotilla]

In my theory, the US and Israel are fine with this, shaping their policy under the assumption that a few warheads do not change the strategic calculus between US/Israel and Iran. I.e, containment.

I agree.
Iran probably has enough HEU for weapons to make some warheads.

By all objective analysis, Khamenei is building a large scale program that was (at least before the latest US strikes) intended to field a large nuclear weapons arsenal.

And probably you´re right again.

Israel and US probably can live happily with some five or six nuclear bombs. But Khamanei needs a logistic line ready to produce bombs. Like his missile factories. And that is the problem.

While it is easy to rebuild a missile factory (IRI has demonstrated the capability of rebuild their factories just in weeks) building centers for centrifugees takes years and operate the centrifugeers takes months to just obtain some weapons grade HEU.

So here starts the play of the cat and the mouse. Whenever IRI makes a centrifugee center o research center Israel with US help would destroy in a frame of months. Something that can be solved in a frame of few weeks in a missile factory. But those research centers and centrifugees takes years to be ready fielded again.

Here comes a new Air Force and better SAM systems to keep israeli and US fighters away.

IMO all your post seems have condensated very well the conundrum of nuclear iranian program.

 

[Nightlamp]

I agree.
Iran probably has enough HEU for weapons to make some warheads.

And probably you´re right again.

Israel and US probably can live happily with some five or six nuclear bombs. But Khamanei needs a logistic line ready to produce bombs. Like his missile factories. And that is the problem.

While it is easy to rebuild a missile factory (IRI has demonstrated the capability of rebuild their factories just in weeks) building centers for centrifugees takes years and operate the centrifugeers takes months to just obtain some weapons grade HEU.

So here starts the play of the cat and the mouse. Whenever IRI makes a centrifugee center o research center Israel with US help would destroy in a frame of months. Something that can be solved in a frame of few weeks in a missile factory. But those research centers and centrifugees takes years to be ready fielded again.

Here comes a new Air Force and better SAM systems to keep israeli and US fighters away.

IMO all your post seems have condensated very well the conundrum of nuclear iranian program.

I agree, and to add to this- this is probably the reason why the damaged nuclear sites have not been touched or repaired. Iran realized that without sufficient conventional cost to Israel, they can’t reliably enter mass scale production of nuclear weapons. Time will tell.

I suspect 2026 will be intense, with an imminent opening of a multi-front war between Israel and Iran’s allies- but a subsequent large scale war is probably inevitable in early 2027.

 

[Persian Gulf]

the entrances to Fordow have been re-sealed

due to fear of commando operation, perhaps

 

[Nightlamp]

the entrances to Fordow have been re-sealed

due to fear of commando operation, perhaps

Esfahan, not Fordow.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Esfahan, not Fordow.

yes, my bad