India - US Tariff and Relations | News + Updates

[Vkdindian1]

Sure, everyone is free to live in their fantasy land . Fortunately, for India's industrialists, investors and workers, their government is aware of the reality and is trying hard to reach an accommodation with the Americans.

Actually, the rulers in Delhi are very keen to sign a deal. The main issue was an offensive posture taken by Trump and an attempt to gain high ground on social media.

Politicians this side are everything but not suicidal. And that too appearing to play under US pressure has huge downside.

So the deal not happening is on Modi but also Trump.

Now, that the deal is under media glare, any farm sector concessions can lead to downfall of any politician signing that deal. Farm sector may contribute very less to the GDP but contributes most of the votes.

More Trump and his lackeys shout, farther they take the deal from being signed.

 

[Khanivore]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[vasanthm]

Sure, everyone is free to live in their fantasy land . Fortunately, for India's industrialists, investors and workers, their government is aware of the reality and is trying hard to reach an accommodation with the Americans.

Pakistan is actually lucky it doesn’t face this issue. As India’s exports and economy grow, it naturally has to navigate tariffs and trade offs.
For Pakistan, exports aren’t taking off even at around a 19% tariff, so changes in tariff rates don’t really matter. Tariffs are a concern only when you have something competitive to export.

 

[r3alist]

Pakistan is actually lucky it doesn’t face this issue. As India’s exports and economy grow, it naturally has to navigate tariffs and trade offs.
For Pakistan, exports aren’t taking off even at around a 19% tariff, so changes in tariff rates don’t really matter. Tariffs are a concern only when you have something competitive to export.

Your number one commodity seems to be people to export.


Trump has clearly put some big pressure on this

 

[MH.Yang]

India's agriculture is a small-scale farming economy with low mechanization and high costs. It is not a competitor to American agriculture at all.

In fact, India's agriculture has survived through high tariffs of 40% and annual subsidies of 6.5 trillion rubles. The reason why the Indian government uses such high tariffs and subsidies to protect India's agriculture is because India has a population of 600 million engaged in agriculture. Once India's agriculture collapses, the country will also collapse.

Trump's demands are indeed unacceptable to the Indian government. Trump's true intention may be to demand compensation from the Indian government in other places, such as purchasing American oil.

 

[Vikramaditya1]

India's agriculture is a small-scale farming economy with low mechanization and high costs. It is not a competitor to American agriculture at all.

Precisely why we won't allow Americans into agro sector. Imagine wanting to export rice or milk to India.

 

[vasanthm]

Your number one commodity seems to be people to export.

Trump has clearly put some big pressure on this

Yet India’s IT and services exports keep growing. Even Trump who casually talks about invading NATO allies limits himself to 'pressure' rather than shutdowns when it comes to India, pretty telling. Many here wishing for worse outcomes doesn’t make them likely.

 

[MH.Yang]

Precisely why we won't allow Americans into agro sector. Imagine wanting to export rice or milk to India.

Everyone knows that the Indian government cannot open up agriculture and cause 600 million people to lose their jobs.

Trump must also know. So either Trump doesn't want to negotiate at all, or Trump's goal is for India to make concessions in other areas.

I think Trump's purpose is to let India buy US treasury bond, stop importing Russian oil and natural gas, import US shale oil and natural gas, and accept illegal Indian immigrants repatriated by the US.

 

[Owaiz]

Actually, the rulers in Delhi are very keen to sign a deal. The main issue was an offensive posture taken by Trump and an attempt to gain high ground on social media.

Politicians this side are everything but not suicidal. And that too appearing to play under US pressure has huge downside.

So the deal not happening is on Modi but also Trump.

Now, that the deal is under media glare, any farm sector concessions can lead to downfall of any politician signing that deal. Farm sector may contribute very less to the GDP but contributes most of the votes.

More Trump and his lackeys shout, farther they take the deal from being signed.

At the end of the day, a deal gets done when both sides see they have something to gain from it. With Trump's transactional approach, even towards the closest traditional allies like Canada, India will have to offer something that Trump personally considers a win. From India, Trump wants big ticket defense orders, energy purchase commitments and full access for American agricultural products. If India can commit to investing hundreds of billions in the US economy like the EU, Japan and South Korea, that would help as well, but I don't think India has that kind of spare capital lying around. In any case, India, with its higher growth rate, it probably a more lucrative investment destination than the US.

As of now, the US has more leverage than India. They have already agreed on deals with most of their biggest partners. In cases, like Canada or India, where they have not, the counterparty is not really in a position to piss off the Americans. The US doesnt have as much to lose from the status quo as India does, so it is India that will have to make the move that takes the deal over the line.

 

[Owaiz]

Pakistan is actually lucky it doesn’t face this issue. As India’s exports and economy grow, it naturally has to navigate tariffs and trade offs.
For Pakistan, exports aren’t taking off even at around a 19% tariff, so changes in tariff rates don’t really matter. Tariffs are a concern only when you have something competitive to export.

That may be true, but why are you quoting me to make an off-topic post about Pakistan ? This thread is about India- US tariffs.

 

[Vkdindian1]

As of now, the US has more leverage than India. They have already agreed on deals with most of their biggest partners. In cases, like Canada or India, where they have not, the counterparty is not really in a position to piss off the Americans. The US doesnt have as much to lose from the status quo as India does, so it is India that will have to make the move that takes the deal over the line.

US is a superpower for no reason. Trump can afford to be erratic and unpredictable while Modi can’t. Trump can give undiplomatic remarks against other leaders, while they choose to stay quiet.
Many nations and entities have fallen in line when this whole drama started. That appeared to me a little hurried decision, since many nations were pressured into taking those decisions.

For India, farm sector is the red line. But, that appears to be so for Trump too.
As far as military purchases go, India has been buying a lot of stuff. Apart from fighter aircraft, India has bought almost everything else.

Yes, US is in the commanding situation, but farm sector access is probably holding the deal.
Any Indian government allowing that would cease to exist.
Trump seems to be using social media tactics to put pressure. Modi isn’t biting that.

Many posters are saying that Modi is scared. He is not. Social media is Trump’s strong turf. It is better to ignore him there and answer him with actions or lack of it, which seems to be the case here.
Another aspect that seems to have delayed the deal is an offensive posture displayed by Trump and his team publicly against Modi.
“Probably”, Modi is showing Trump that these tactics can’t work with a country of Indian stature.

Bottom line - it is better to have a very late deal or no deal than a bad deal.

 

[r3alist]

Yet India’s IT and services exports keep growing. Even Trump who casually talks about invading NATO allies limits himself to 'pressure' rather than shutdowns when it comes to India, pretty telling. Many here wishing for worse outcomes doesn’t make them likely.

Even as a comical troll I could not have imagined the idea of 500% tariffs being a thing

Yet here you are finding cope that it's actually not that bad.

Remember you guys actually dismissed the idea of h1b ever coming under pressure, you may well be punch drunk at this stage

 

[Owaiz]

US is a superpower for no reason. Trump can afford to be erratic and unpredictable while Modi can’t. Trump can give undiplomatic remarks against other leaders, while they choose to stay quiet.
Many nations and entities have fallen in line when this whole drama started. That appeared to me a little hurried decision, since many nations were pressured into taking those decisions.

For India, farm sector is the red line. But, that appears to be so for Trump too.
As far as military purchases go, India has been buying a lot of stuff. Apart from fighter aircraft, India has bought almost everything else.

Yes, US is in the commanding situation, but farm sector access is probably holding the deal.
Any Indian government allowing that would cease to exist.
Trump seems to be using social media tactics to put pressure. Modi isn’t biting that.

Many posters are saying that Modi is scared. He is not. Social media is Trump’s strong turf. It is better to ignore him there and answer him with actions or lack of it, which seems to be the case here.
Another aspect that seems to have delayed the deal is an offensive posture displayed by Trump and his team publicly against Modi.
“Probably”, Modi is showing Trump that these tactics can’t work with a country of Indian stature.

Bottom line - it is better to have a very late deal or no deal than a bad deal.

Actually, if you look at the big-ticket military hardware, the US is mostly absent from the Indian market. Attack aircraft is just one area. There is also missile and missile defence, tanks, artillery, capital ships like aircraft carriers, destroyers, etc. India has mostly avoided American when it comes to critical offensive weapons. Besides weapons, the only other products America can export to India that Trump cares about are agricultural products, nuclear reactors and oil/gas. So, if American exports are to be accommodated, it would have to be mainly in these sectors.

 

[r3alist]

Yes, US is in the commanding situation, but farm sector access is probably holding the deal.
Any Indian government allowing that would cease to exist.
Trump seems to be using social media tactics to put pressure. Modi isn’t biting that

From the Indian perspective, is the farming trade sticking point truly that unacceptable?

Because the scenario might be, trump will not back down, will potentially want to portray modi as conceeding to him, but then if that actually means political suicide, what is the way forward?

 

[r3alist]

Actually, if you look at the big-ticket military hardware, the US is mostly absent from the Indian market. Attack aircraft is just one area. There is also missile and missile defence, tanks, artillery, capital ships like aircraft carriers, destroyers, etc. India has mostly avoided American when it comes to critical offensive weapons. Besides weapons, the only other products America can export to India that Trump cares about are agricultural products, nuclear reactors and oil/gas. So, if American exports are to be accommodated, it would have to be mainly in these sectors.

Doesn't Russia still dominate Indian military supply