Yes it can, even sink an entire CSG if it wants to
But it can't, because Iran doesn't want to, fearing the retaliation that would ensue
So what’s actually the better form of deterrence here?
1. Take the hits and respond with small symbolic strikes, hoping the other side loses interest and moves on.
2. Hit back as hard as possible to force a stalemate, betting that once the costs rise, Trump rethinks and pulls back.
Iran already tried giving the U.S. an off-ramp with the response in Qatar. That clearly didn’t work, since they’re back again.
There’s also a real use-it-or-lose-it problem here.
Once the missile sites are destroyed and more chaos is set in motion, there’s really no backing down at all. Trump doesn’t respect weakness. Every time Iran tried to give him an off-ramp, he came back and hit harder.
Pretending Trump is going to back down because Iran sets a few refineries on fire is wishful thinking. A couple of damaged refineries and a spike in oil prices is a price Israel will make the West pay if the outcome is eliminating Iran.
Honestly, I don’t really see a solution here. It feels like all paths lead to the same place. At this point, it just looks like the end.