Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Immortals said:
If Khamenai is assassinated, it’s hard to see how the Supreme Leader led (Velāyat-e Faqih) Republic will survive. When the leader of your country is murdered like he is some Al-Queda or ISIS leader it hurts the foundation of the revolution. It dilutes the message. It sows doubt into the system. It sows fear. It gives rise to treachery and corruption.

So while Iran can remain a republic, it can no longer rely on the Velāyat-e Faqih as its foundation. It will likely use the event to rise to military rule to “avenge” the old system or it will implode and the strongest faction will win.

Was Stalin assassinated? Was Mao assassinated? Was Chavez assassinated? Was Castro Assassinated? Was Mussolini assassinated? Was Napoleon assassinated? Was Kim Jung Un’s father or grandfather asssinated?

Again, It just doesn’t happen in strong long lasting central figure based systems.
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If what you say is true, Shiism would have ended after the battle of Karbala. The great Satan killing Iran’s spiritual leader. Wouldn’t that prove Khomeinis view of the west to be true?

Your guess is as good as mine, but I dare to say there is a good chance it would empower the ultra conservatives who thinks Khamenei is too soft. A perfect environment for a coup though.
 
Immortals said:
Wow they Realized this only after:

  • Hundreds of officers/generals dying in syria due to air strikes
  • Solemani assassination
  • Iran Embassy being bombed
  • Countless sabotage acts inside Iran
  • Countless nuclear scientist killed
  • Fakhrizadeh assassination
  • Hezbollah decapitation
  • Syria falling
  • 12 day war
  • Nuclear program being blown up
  • A large Assassination attempt on political officials during the war by bombing their bunker
  • Threats of asssination against Iran’s leader



Why does this Sound like Iran doesn’t plan to strike the U.S. and instead strike Israel to“punish” the U.S.

Shamkhani never had any guts.
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If it looks like trump is going in for the kill why would Iran higher ups have to loser honestly nothing trump starts bombing Iran all over the country including areas where civilians are located to military and political sites honestly only plays into Irans favor those who were leaning against Iran or wished for change their attitude kind of changes when you have have thousands of your loved ones dying not for the Iranian people but Israel so yeah if this comes to blows Iran will have to go all out because whatever trump may say isn’t to be believed if this starts it won’t end until Persian gulf is a graveyard of ships or bases all over the middle are decimated and the world’s economies come tumbling with massive strikes on neighboring countries oil and gas and yeah let’s throw Israel in the mix hit dimona
 
Bharatah said:
I disagree with you, my friend.

1st = You made a mistake by repeating one of the oldest Zionist fake news stories, which is "only 20% of the people support the government," that's on the level of "40 beheaded babies."
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IRi has support, no doubt but nobody knows to what extent.
Bharatah said:
2st = Kameney is an elderly man of almost 90 years old, who is physically disabled and has to take a series of medications and medical care. Kameney has less power in Iran than Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, or Maduro in Venezuela. He is a symbol and will normally be replaced by another symbol in the future (since, regardless of assassination attempts, he is already almost senile). Iran has more than 15 million theologians , and there are many others living abroad; remember that Ayatollah Khomeini came from France(1979) to Iran, this could also happen if necessary.

The US plan would be to kill or kidnap him and create another "victory narrative" in the media, but in practice (in the long term) it could have the opposite effect :
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For the West, Khamenei would be an amazing trophy to kidnap and a satisfying kill if possible. Trump has claimed back in July he stopped the Israelis from assassinating him, but that was because Trump wanted a "deal". The deal being presented is a surrender instrument and most likely will be rejected, hence even Trump has no use for him now.
Bharatah said:
1- Iran's atomic bomb would be free to happen (if it hasn't already happened and only needs the official announcement).
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Yes, which suits the West and GCC just fine. They need bad guys to sell weapons.
Bharatah said:
2. It opens the door to the assassination of Netanyahu and other Zionist leaders.
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They have already taken this risk and have the strictest security. It's why they go around assassinating everyone else.
Bharatah said:
3. It radicalizes Iran and Muslims in general (even Sunnis), leading to a race for revenge and arms race because Western media portray it as a "defeat of Islam".
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Sunnis did nothing over a genocide in Gaza , why would they bother with Khamenei ? The Sunnis could care less, just look at that revolting "board of peace". Long term if Iran and Shias are further radicalized , that fits nicely with the "New Middle East" that Abraham's Accords and Abraham's Shield are building towards. That New Middle East envisions Shia as the bad guys anyway against the civilized, progressive Muslims and their Western/Israeli allies.

To me it all adds up and these other scenarios are a disinformation.
 
Watandar said:
IRi has support, no doubt but nobody knows to what extent.

For the West, Khamenei would be an amazing trophy to kidnap and a satisfying kill if possible. Trump has claimed back in July he stopped the Israelis from assassinating him, but that was because Trump wanted a "deal". The deal being presented is a surrender instrument and most likely will be rejected, hence even Trump has no use for him now.

Yes, which suits the West and GCC just fine. They need bad guys to sell weapons.

They have already taken this risk and have the strictest security. It's why they go around assassinating everyone else.

Sunnis did nothing over a genocide in Gaza , why would they bother with Khamenei ? The Sunnis could care less, just look at that revolting "board of peace". Long term if Iran and Shias are further radicalized , that fits nicely with the "New Middle East" that Abraham's Accords and Abraham's Shield are building towards. That New Middle East envisions Shia as the bad guys anyway against the civilized, progressive Muslims and their Western/Israeli allies.

To me it all adds up and these other scenarios are a disinformation.
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Would be the stupidest thing to kill a guy who will either be dying of old age soon or be incapacitated by old age they kill him will just make him rallying cry for those who still adore and respect him which is large portion of the religious Shia or Iran and many Shias across the world better to leave him be than actually attempt to take him out even if people outside Iran and even those who hate Israel and trump would wish to die so they could do what they wish
 
mangekyo said:
If what you say is true, Shiism would have ended after the battle of Karbala. The great Satan killing Iran’s spiritual leader. Wouldn’t that prove Khomeinis view of the west to be true?

Your guess is as good as mine, but I dare to say there is a good chance it would empower the ultra conservatives who thinks Khamenei is too soft. A perfect environment for a coup though.
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Mr Khomeini proved wrong on many things but his 1980s description of the US as the "Great Satan" and Israel as the "Little Satan" , with regards to how hostile and destructive these countries are towards the people of Middle East, has been proven correct many times over.

Well maybe Mr Khomeini was even somewhat incorrect in this as to who really is the "Great Satan" but you get the jist lol.
 
I think Khamenei might order a preemptive strike on US Naval forces. This is his decision after Jamkaran mosque. Since war doesn't seem likely to be avoided due to Trump and Israeli belligerence, Iran might well "use it before they lose it" when they now have the perfect number of ASBMs and drones to saturate a carrier group with. Any move on US forces is fair game since Trump has killed Soleimani and ordered Midnight Hammer before, so now Iran has casus belli to respond first.
Watch the next 24-48 hours.
 
Persian Gulf said:
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“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face” Tyson...

Bully only knows one thing... let him run to moma! Remember all the good advice he skipped...

Only good coming out of this would be a demolition of zion and their demilitarization... Nuremberg style trials for miliekowsky, et al!
 
Bharatah said:
I disagree with you, my friend.

1st = You made a mistake by repeating one of the oldest Zionist fake news stories, which is "only 20% of the people support the government," that's on the level of "40 beheaded babies."
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I refer to the latest presidential election participation figures and votes for Jalili

Bharatah said:
2st = Kameney is an elderly man of almost 90 years old, who is physically disabled and has to take a series of medications and medical care. Kameney has less power in Iran than Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, or Maduro in Venezuela. He is a symbol and will normally be replaced by another symbol in the future (since, regardless of assassination attempts, he is already almost senile). Iran has more than 15 million theologians , and there are many others living abroad; remember that Ayatollah Khomeini came from France(1979) to Iran, this could also happen if necessary.
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there are no similar symbols with Khamenei's profile

sure Khamenei didn't have much profile in 1989 but Iran didn't face a legitimacy crisis then like it does now

Bharatah said:
The US plan would be to kill or kidnap him and create another "victory narrative" in the media, but in practice (in the long term) it could have the opposite effect :

1- Iran's atomic bomb would be free to happen (if it hasn't already happened and only needs the official announcement).

2. It opens the door to the assassination of Netanyahu and other Zionist leaders.

3. It radicalizes Iran and Muslims in general (even Sunnis), leading to a race for revenge and arms race because Western media portray it as a "defeat of Islam".
Click to expand...
none of these are likely

abducting Khamenei is much harder since Tehran is far from the coast and Khamenei is less likely to be betrayed by those around him, even Israel could not track him
 
Persian Gulf said:
it plunges IRI into chaos because there is no ready replacement

and rule by a leadership council will struggle to replace a leader which has the strong support of c. 20% of the population
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In fact, they want that as an opening salvo... one that assumes that if the decapitation is successful the underlings will and/or can be cowed...
They'd not be motivated, nor have a sense of direction or feel for objectives... therefore could be persuaded for less.
 
Shadi hassan said:
If it looks like trump is going in for the kill why would Iran higher ups have to loser honestly nothing trump starts bombing Iran all over the country including areas where civilians are located to military and political sites honestly only plays into Irans favor those who were leaning against Iran or wished for change their attitude kind of changes when you have have thousands of your loved ones dying not for the Iranian people but Israel so yeah if this comes to blows Iran will have to go all out because whatever trump may say isn’t to be believed if this starts it won’t end until Persian gulf is a graveyard of ships or bases all over the middle are decimated and the world’s economies come tumbling with massive strikes on neighboring countries oil and gas and yeah let’s throw Israel in the mix hit dimona
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may I suggest that you use more full stops and line breaks to make your posts easier to read.
 
I am a conservative American who is very much anti-Iran because its actions and rhetoric have destabilized the Middle East for 45 years, thereby necessitating far too much American involvement, costing us American lives and trillions of dollars of "treasure". However, I do believe that if Trump starts a war with Iran, he will lose millions of conservative Americans like me. We do not want to be the World's policeman, nor do we want to enable Israel to dominate and bully it's neighbors. If Trump attacks Iran, he will definitely lose the House of Representatives and there will be no JD Vance or other Republican successor in 2028. He might get away with a pin prick attack, but not something that precipitates a major conflict and destruction across many Middle Eastern nations. Because of Trump's huge bombast and bullying this past year, rather than concentrating on domestic problems, he is already on very thin ice with voters like me. An attack on Iran in the present circumstances is totally unjustified. If he does it, he will become a lame duck President. Unfortunately, a very dangerous one. VCheng is correct. We all need to survive the next 2-3 years and he will be gone. Pray for that.
 
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My post above presupposes that Iran makes a US attack on itself very costly for the region. If Iran just "accepts" a US attack and doesn't badly hurt Israel and ME states that host American attack aircraft, then Trump will "get away" with it and will just keep on bullying.
 
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