Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mulj]

China's top crude oil sources (2024-25): Russia, KSA, Iraq, Malaysia, UAE.

So? All easily choked out except russian one. His initial assumption is correct.

 

[Watandar]

China's top crude oil sources (2024-25): Russia, KSA, Iraq, Malaysia, UAE.

Four of these will quit supplying China tomorrow if the US pushes hard. The Chinese can continue ignoring what's happening and focusing on business but the West is coming for them. The longer West is stuck in Ukraine or Mideast or somewhere else, the safer China is.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

If China helps noone, then it will be alone when the West finally comes for it.

West is coming to China already but not in the way you are saying. Canadian PM visited China a week ago, now UK's PM visiting it. West wants to do business with China.

As far as war is concerned, China obviously will remain neutral in Iran Vs US. But just to make a point, if there's a situation where a country must have to pick a side then China will take the side of the United States.

Reason is obvious.

United States is largest trading partner of China. China-US trade is in excess of half a Trillon dollars Where, trade balance is overwhelmingly in China's favor whooping 400+ billions of dollars in China's favor.

Humanity, rules, personal wishes, nothing works in geopolitics. Only interests.

 

[LX1111]

Oversimplified perspective. Too many generalisations here, especially the highlighted part. I doubt Arabs are particularly "offended" by the pro-Iran stance of anyone else.

It is only really Indians who believe in this reductionist version of realpolitik, whereby for example, if Azerbaijan says something nice about Pakistan then a 5000 year curse must be leveraged on Baku by "supporting" Armenia.

I don't think Beijing follows such crude generalisations. Beijing must certainly do what is in its interests though.

Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to restore relations

The regional rivals are expected to reopen their embassies within two months after talks in Beijing.

www.aljazeera.com

China has long avoided taking sides between Sunni and Shia Muslims. China has made significant efforts to promote reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and in 2023, China directly facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
China supported Iran at that time because Iran had established a Shia crescent stretching from Xinjiang, China, to the Eastern Mediterranean. China believed that Iran could completely challenge the dominance of the United States and the West in the Middle East, and the Shia crescent was part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
but With Hamas eliminated, Hezbollah severely damaged, and the Assad regime in Syria, into which China had invested countless political resources, collapsing, Iran has lost its significance for China. At this point, supporting Iran would offend everyone, including the Arab world, Israel, Türkiye, and the United States.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

relax people, nothing is going to happen (that has'nt happened before)

 

[mulj]

Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to restore relations

The regional rivals are expected to reopen their embassies within two months after talks in Beijing.

www.aljazeera.com

China has long avoided taking sides between Sunni and Shia Muslims. China has made significant efforts to promote reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and in 2023, China directly facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
China supported Iran at that time because Iran had established a Shia crescent stretching from Xinjiang, China, to the Eastern Mediterranean. China believed that Iran could completely challenge the dominance of the United States and the West in the Middle East, and the Shia crescent was part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
but With Hamas eliminated, Hezbollah severely damaged, and the Assad regime in Syria, into which China had invested countless political resources, collapsing, Iran has lost its significance for China. At this point, supporting Iran would offend everyone, including the Arab world, Israel, Türkiye, and the United States.

I see western slime political verbalisms reached chinese shores rather well.

 

[Watandar]

West is coming to China already but not in the way you are saying. Canadian PM visited China a week ago, now UK's PM visiting it. West wants to do business with China.

As far as war is concerned, China obviously will remain neutral in Iran Vs US. But just to make a point, if there's a situation where a country must have to pick a side then China will take the side of the United States.

Reason is obvious.

United States is largest trading partner of China. China-US trade is in excess of half a Trillon dollars Where, trade balance is overwhelmingly in China's favor whooping 400+ billions of dollars in China's favor.

Humanity, rules, personal wishes, nothing works in geopolitics. Only interests.

What ?? The interests of the energy lobby , Military industrial lobby mixed with Western instinct of domination is what has been operating for last few centuries and will continue to do so. China is an obstacle to this.

With regards to Canada or EU signing business deals with Beijing, they will abandon China to the wolves the minute America resumes the gravy train.

 

[LX1111]

The proper lesson to learn is that being timid and backing down from US escalation leads to a slow and inevitable encirclement. All those oil sources you mentioned other than Russia will bend to US pressure when the time comes, and if they don't, simply have a color revolution and replace them with someone who will. Even Russia will bend if it's offered reintegration into Europe.

There isn't much China can do for Iran anyways at this point but China will be slowly choked out just like the Soviet Union was. It takes less effort to destroy than it does to create.

Iran's political credibility is bankrupt in China's eyes, and supporting Iran is of little significance in ensuring oil security. China has invested heavily in oil fields in Iraq and Angola, but most of its oil investments in Iran have failed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard often seizes oil refineries or oil fields that China has already built. After the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the Iranian government directly handed over the oil fields that were originally operated by China to the West.
China is not unwilling to support countries that oppose the United States. Last month, when Trump threatened to completely destroy Cuba, China declared its support for Cuba's sovereignty and independence and provided Cuba with 30,000 tons of rice as emergency aid to alleviate its food crisis. It's worth noting that Cuba has no real value to China; China lacks the capacity to extend its influence into America's backyard. Nevertheless, China still supported Cuba.

 

[Watandar]

Iran's political credibility is bankrupt in China's eyes, and supporting Iran is of little significance in ensuring oil security. China has invested heavily in oil fields in Iraq and Angola, but most of its oil investments in Iran have failed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard often seizes oil refineries or oil fields that China has already built. After the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the Iranian government directly handed over the oil fields that were originally operated by China to the West.

This makes no sense at all.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

This makes no sense at all.

makes sense to me!

if your strategy does not confuse your *enemy and winds him down, then, what good is your strategy!

here, weakness is $, for both parties!

rather, on the flip side, here USA found it easy to constraint IR, which was too reliant on $.

 

[BigMela2onin]

The Soviet Union once supported many anti-American countries. However, these countries not only failed to offer any assistance to the security of the Soviet Union, but also caused the Soviet Union to spend a large amount of foreign currency. This was a very important reason for the ultimate failure of the Soviet Union.
China will learn from the lessons of the Soviet Union.

Last month, when Trump threatened to completely destroy Cuba, China declared its support for Cuba's sovereignty and independence and provided Cuba with 30,000 tons of rice as emergency aid to alleviate its food crisis. It's worth noting that Cuba has no real value to China; China lacks the capacity to extend its influence into America's backyard. Nevertheless, China still supported Cuba.

You are arguing against yourself. You are wasting money aiding Cuba against the US when it provides no benefit to you but are arguing against supporting Iran because it would put your relationship with US puppet regimes at risk?

It doesn't matter that you don't get the majority of your oil from Venezuela or Iran now, it matters that when you are cut off from your current source, Iran and Venezuela will will no longer be viable alternatives for you.

 

[LX1111]

This makes no sense at all.

Four of these will quit supplying China tomorrow if the US pushes hard. The Chinese can continue ignoring what's happening and focusing on business but the West is coming for them. The longer West is stuck in Ukraine or Mideast or somewhere else, the safer China is.

I don't believe the Americans would do that. Cutting off oil imports from China would only cause international oil prices to plummet, directly destroying the US shale oil revolution. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries would lose their biggest buyers.This would lead to a complete collapse of relations between the United States and the Arab world, and the end of the petrodollar. Don't forget, the United States is the world's largest oil producer, and the United States and Arab countries are competitors.
Furthermore, China has seen too many examples of Iran betraying China for a single piece of candy from the West. We even believe that the energy resources of Arab countries may be more stable than Iran's oil resources.

 

[LX1111]

You are arguing against yourself. You are wasting money aiding Cuba against the US when it provides no benefit to you but are arguing against supporting Iran because it would put your relationship with US puppet regimes at risk?

It doesn't matter that you don't get the majority of your oil from Venezuela or Iran now, it matters that when you are cut off from your current source, Iran and Venezuela will will no longer be viable alternatives for you.

The aid to Cuba cost less than $80 million, a very low price. Moreover, China's aid to Cuba was never intended to use Cuba to confront the United States, but rather as a gesture of basic brotherhood between socialist countries.
Aid to Iran is different. It would cost at least $200 billion, along with massive amounts of arms and countless political and military resources. And we wouldn't get enough in return.

 

[BigMela2onin]

I don't believe the Americans would do that. Cutting off oil imports from China would only cause international oil prices to plummet, directly destroying the US shale oil revolution. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries would lose their biggest buyers.This would lead to a complete collapse of relations between the United States and the Arab world, and the end of the petrodollar. Don't forget, the United States is the world's largest oil producer, and the United States and Arab countries are competitors.
Furthermore, China has seen too many examples of Iran betraying China for a single piece of candy from the West. We even believe that the energy resources of Arab countries may be more stable than Iran's oil resources.

Petrodollar is backed by US military strength. You are assuming the US will just let the arab kings pivot away without a fight. We are in a world where international law is meaningless. There are no shortage of Saudi princes who would be willing to take MBS's place and MBZ is such a hardcore zio he hires western mercs to protect himself from his own army. You seem to just assume the CIA and US military will just sit around and do nothing and built all those bases for fun.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Four of these will quit supplying China tomorrow if the US pushes hard. The Chinese can continue ignoring what's happening and focusing on business but the West is coming for them. The longer West is stuck in Ukraine or Mideast or somewhere else, the safer China is.

The problem for the Chinese is that the Americans are starting to own all the "watering holes", which in this case is oil. Without access to safe supplies of oil, all of China's waiting will mean nothing. If the Americans get hold of Iranian oil, then the only source left is Russia, but the Russians are also quite unreliable. One for China to figure out.