Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

Doesn't look like Trump has changed his mind.

he's reposting an old video from several weeks ago (with a dumb caption from a random account, of course).

 

[Immortals]

could be just stall tactics but they give up enrichment

They have already given up enrichment albeit not by consent. Iran has not enriched uranium since June. That’s 7 months ago. The longer they don’t enrich, the more risk there is that offering ‘no enrichment’ doesn’t work because the West will say you haven’t enriched in 2 years (for example).

Even if Iran wanted to start enrichment tomm, it would take time to rebuild centrifuges and do installation and inspections, Its honestly doubtful Iran could begin enrichment within 12 months even with no threat of U.S./Israeli attack. The most logical spot to do enrichment would be Pick Axe mountain, but it’s still not complete and requires centrifuges that we don’t know if Iran has spares of in significant quantities of IR-4 or IR-6.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They have already given up enrichment albeit not by consent. Iran has not enriched uranium since June. That’s 7 months ago. The longer they don’t enrich, the more risk there is that offering ‘no enrichment’ doesn’t work because the West will say you haven’t enriched in 2 years (for example).

Even if Iran wanted to start enrichment tomm, it would take time to rebuild centrifuges and do installation and inspections, Its honestly doubtful Iran could begin enrichment within 12 months even with no threat of U.S./Israeli attack. The most logical spot to do enrichment would be Pick Axe mountain, but it’s still not complete and requires centrifuges that we don’t know if Iran has spares of in significant quantities of IR-4 or IR-6.

If I was them I would get any centrifuges left in storage up and running in Natanz-2 (Pick Axe mountain site) as well as laser enrichment in several undeclared sites across the country (harder to detect if above ground)

 

[Shags101]

They have already given up enrichment albeit not by consent. Iran has not enriched uranium since June. That’s 7 months ago. The longer they don’t enrich, the more risk there is that offering ‘no enrichment’ doesn’t work because the West will say you haven’t enriched in 2 years (for example).

Even if Iran wanted to start enrichment tomm, it would take time to rebuild centrifuges and do installation and inspections, Its honestly doubtful Iran could begin enrichment within 12 months even with no threat of U.S./Israeli attack. The most logical spot to do enrichment would be Pick Axe mountain, but it’s still not complete and requires centrifuges that we don’t know if Iran has spares of in significant quantities of IR-4 or IR-6.

Yeah I still think pick axe could be their Trojan horse in plain sight but who knows like you say

 

[Immortals]

Iran says that what America says in private negotiations and what they say publicly about their terms are different

I’m not so sure anymore. Iran has to say that to save face.

FBI leaks show that they were concerned that Israel had too much influence on Trump in his first term vis a vi his son-in-law Jared. And we see it right now, Jared was in Moscow meeting with Putin alongside Witkoff. He was in Israel meeting with Bibi about Gaza post war plan.

The problem for Iran is that Trump’s Middle East envoy is basically his son in law…his JEWISH son in law to add. I just don’t think Jared will allow Iran to keep any enrichment or accept even a cessation.

Plus both terms (no enrichment and no LR missiles) require heavy monitoring which means Iran will have to agree to U.S. inspectors on its soil access to even military facilities to verify there isn’t secret nuclear program happening.

The issue here is, Putin is getting favorable deal terms because despite losing tens of thousands of soldiers (maybe even hundreds depending on who you believe) it was due to him not budging and continuing the war that gained Trumps respect.

Iran never had that moment. Never went to war when Israel was genociding, never went to war when Nasrallah was killed, never went to war when Embassy was blown up. Didn’t go to war over Solemani. He doesn’t respect Iran’s leaders, you even heard him say this past month that Solemani was a tough man. Alluding that this leadership isn’t built the same.

It’s hard to see how Iran let red line and red line go unanswered can now get the U.S. to “fear” the consequences of asking for capitulation and potentially getting no deal.

 

[Immortals]

Yeah I still think pick axe could be their Trojan horse in plain sight but who knows like you say

It’s not as Trojan as you think. Because even if it’s hard or impossible to destroy, its entrances are vulnerable. And even the vibrations from the explosions can upset the centrifuges that are very delicate.

Plus all it does is bring Iran back somewhat to pre-June status quo, with enrichment that’s good for pissing off the West, but too obvious for a sprint to the nuke. Its uranium metal conversion facility (you need to take the enriched uranium and convert it into the uranium metal core for a bomb) was destroyed in Isfahan. So a pilot facility will need to be built or an existing area retrofitted to do the job.

The game theory on this is just a mess quite frankly.

 

[Takayoshi]

Was the blast in Bandar Abbas the result of death of IRGC Navy commodore? According to Wikipedia page for Alireza Tangsiri, he died today.

 

[Shags101]

It’s not as Trojan as you think. Because even if it’s hard or impossible to destroy, its entrances are vulnerable. And even the vibrations from the explosions can upset the centrifuges that are very delicate.

Plus all it does is bring Iran back somewhat to pre-June status quo, with enrichment that’s good for pissing off the West, but too obvious for a sprint to the nuke. Its uranium metal conversion facility (you need to take the enriched uranium and convert it into the uranium metal core for a bomb) was destroyed in Isfahan. So a pilot facility will need to be built or an existing area retrofitted to do the job.

The game theory on this is just a mess quite frankly.

More that people thinking it’s not functional when it’s actually been functional all along and enrichment has been ongoing and now the bomb is coming……I know that’s most likely not true but a brother can dream

 

[Bahrami]

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[Shags101]

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So you do know the farther away they actually are the better it is to defend against an Iranian attack and harder for Iran to see an attack coming the farther away they are but I’m just spitting out stuff could be fake news unless anyone can confirm it

 

[tsunset]

Was the blast in Bandar Abbas the result of death of IRGC Navy commodore? According to Wikipedia page for Alireza Tangsiri, he died today.

This is all fake news, Iran never hides its martyrs, the wikipedia is being edited by AngloJew NAFO shills, it got removed because of the lack of source

Only civilians died in the gas leak

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Around 2am Iran time all is quiet which means not going to happen this weekend I think when the 2nd carrier is in position then the weekend proceeding its arrival we'll likely see something.

What 2nd CSG?

I've not been following this too closely.

 

[Shags101]

What 2nd CSG?

I've not been following this too closely.

Reports indicate that another carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is expected to deploy in the coming months, though it is currently finishing training.

I think he’s jumping the gun there

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

What can Iran possibly offer to the Americans to stop the war? Handing over enriched uranium? Ceasing the civil Iranian nuclear program? Curbing the number and range of its ballistic missiles? End its support for the Houthis and Hezbollah? Abandoning Iraq? Would the IRI leadership accept a dictated peace? Is the IRGC ready for its Treaty of Versailles?

It doesn't make sense to me unless they genuinely and truly have surrendered.

Never has an imbalance and surrender of defensive or offensive capabilities resulted in lasting peace. It's most stark examples lie in native Indian and US treaties... that were not worth the paper they were written on... it resulted in them being routed later...
Who's to guarantee Iranian or its population's survival once they have lost all abilities to defend themselves... handicapped and donned a straight jacket?
Relegated to another Mahmood Abbas and PLO status till the time comes to undo political borders.

Ones refusing to make hard choices are digging holes for their own children and posterity!

Ask any Palestinian now what they'd give to turn the clock back some 60 odd years with even greater losses back then for freedom and security today?

Yet they face genocide for the compromises they made.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Reports indicate that another carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is expected to deploy in the coming months, though it is currently finishing training.

I think he’s jumping the gun there

Thanks. I rarely track ship movements.