Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

As soon as Iran hands over its stock of HEU, the US will no longer worry about a potential nuclear outbreak and will exert 10x more pressure on Iran even if they decide to honor the agreement, which they won't (like the JCPOA).

There is no “potential” nuclear outbreak. There never was. Iran was always 2 years away from nuclear bomb assembling. The West/Israel just led a successful propaganda train to make people think it was always 1-6 months away.

Iran was content at sitting as a threshold state like Japan where it could one day decide if the world got hectic or chaotic to go for a nuclear weapon.

But iran overplayed its hand thinking that a threshold state has the deterrence benefits of a bomb state. It doesn’t.

Iran’s nuclear weapons program mostly died in 2003 and was cemented when they killed the reactor at Arak that would have made 4-7 plutonium bombs a year.

So wether Iran gives away its uranium or doesn’t, it’s not a threat in the eyes of the West because the components to assemble the bomb have long been mothballed and shuttered.

 

[Meengla]

Your outsider's perspective is most likely wrong because your information about Iran and social fabric and history cannot top an Iranian's knowledge of his country.

Firstly, pardon me, but based on the expat Pakistanis' perspective about Pakistan, I have grown to be quite skeptical of such Pakistanis and by extension of the expats in general: They are usually in some 'expansive' mode/mood because of their own comfortable, relatively disengaged situation. You may or may not be one of them.

Time will tell. I have already written my prediction about the situation. Would love to know yours as well, and we will be able to judge who is right or wrong a few months/years from now. There is no need to hurry or talk about theory when the real thing is unfolding in front of our eyes in real time.

My prediction is that Iran will be plunged into an worse situation than now should a regime change happens backed by outside powers. Netanyahu will ideally like to see a fragmented Iran and if that's not happening then at least a toothless Iran like Lebanon is. What is YOUR prediction, and my apologies if I had missed them?

 

[Immortals]

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[ShapurII]

Points 1 , 2 & 3 are unacceptable

The whole thing is an insult to our country.
They are defanging us and do not even offer any sort of economic benefits for it. Iran's main issue at the moment is economic collapse, which is not going to be addressed in the negotiations with that proposed framework.

This is what happens when your enemy sees you're weak and divided.

There is no “potential” nuclear outbreak. There never was. Iran was always 2 years away from nuclear bomb assembling. The West/Israel just led a successful propaganda train to make people think it was always 1-6 months away.

Iran was content at sitting as a threshold state like Japan where it could one day decide if the world got hectic or chaotic to go for a nuclear weapon.

But iran overplayed its hand thinking that a threshold state has the deterrence benefits of a bomb state. It doesn’t.

Iran’s nuclear weapons program mostly died in 2003 and was cemented when they killed the reactor at Arak that would have made 4-7 plutonium bombs a year.

So wether Iran gives away its uranium or doesn’t, it’s not a threat in the eyes of the West because the components to assemble the bomb have long been mothballed and shuttered.

Rationally, there is a reasonable concern that if the status quo in Iran changes, Iran might end up with a transitional system that could potentially consider nuclear deterrence for its survival. That's why they prefer to take out the HEU in Iran and secure it. Even if they don't, they will never let Iran get its hands on it.

 

[Meengla]

There is no “potential” nuclear outbreak. There never was. Iran was always 2 years away from nuclear bomb assembling. The West/Israel just led a successful propaganda train to make people think it was always 1-6 months away.

Right.
As I said some days ago in this thread, the Iranian nukes are a 'red herring', a distraction, not dissimilar to Saddam's Yellow Cakes.
How nukes are made, how they are turned into credible threat, one needs to look into Pakistan's nuclear weapons program which started in early 1972 and how long for Pakistan to materialize with even some tacit approval of the Americans and probably some help from the Chinese.
Iran, if it ever had the nuclear weapons option, doesn't have it anymore, and will not have it into the foreseeable future. It is a waste of mental and digital bandwidth to talk about Iran's nuclear option ATM.

 

[ShapurII]

Firstly, pardon me, but based on the expat Pakistanis' perspective about Pakistan, I have grown to be quite skeptical of such Pakistanis and by extension of the expats in general: They are usually in some 'expansive' mode/mood because of their own comfortable, relatively disengaged situation. You may or may not be one of them.



My prediction is that Iran will be plunged into an worse situation than now should a regime change happens backed by outside powers. Netanyahu will ideally like to see a fragmented Iran and if that's not happening then at least a toothless Iran like Lebanon is. What is YOUR prediction, and my apologies if I had missed them?

OK. Thanks for sharing your prediction with us.

Here's mine:
1. Without lifting sanctions, there will be riots one after another every now and then. Back in 2009, minimum salary in Iran was about $370 per month. Now it has plummeted to $87 per month. People can barely afford basic living necessities like food. In the last 8 years, on average, we have had new protests every 2 years. And each time, it got more violent than the last time and people chanted more slogans against the system.

2. People will start to go for armed rebellions. Ethnic groups in Iran like Lurs and Arabs are already armed. Kurds and Baluch people have trained separatist groups with the backing of NATO. Since the 12 day war, the Israelis and the Americans have realized that the best way to deal with Iran is internally. Why should they stop trying that when it worked for them last time?

3. The newer generations of Iranians, particularly born after 1985, are quite Westernized. As the West continues to isolate Iran and disconnects Iran from the world, more internal pressure will build up to overthrow the regime, in addition to economic hardship that the regime seems unable to resolve.

Bottom line is that in the next 3 years, Iran will either go through a bloody revolution (civil war) or foreign intervention, or maybe both.

 

[Meengla]

OK. Thanks for sharing your prediction with us.

Here's mine:
1. Without lifting sanctions, there will be riots one after another every now and then. Back in 2009, minimum salary in Iran was about $370 per month. Now it has plummeted to $87 per month. People can barely afford basic living necessities like food. In the last 8 years, on average, we have had new protests every 2 years. And each time, it got more violent than the last time and people chanted more slogans against the system.

2. People will start to go for armed rebellions. Ethnic groups in Iran like Lurs and Arabs are already armed. Kurds and Baluch people have trained separatist groups with the backing of NATO. Since the 12 day war, the Israelis and the Americans have realized that the best way to deal with Iran is internally. Why should they stop trying that when it worked for them last time?

3. The newer generations of Iranians, particularly born after 1985, are quite Westernized. As the West continues to isolate Iran and disconnects Iran from the world, more internal pressure will build up to overthrow the regime, in addition to economic hardship that the regime seems unable to resolve.

Bottom line is that in the next 3 years, Iran will either go through a bloody revolution (civil war) or foreign intervention, or maybe both.

Thank you for sharing your 'prediction'.
IF what you share is true then maybe it is better for Iran to be another country like Jordan. And as a senior member here constantly says in most threads: 'It is up to XYZ to decide'.

 

[mangekyo]

The whole thing is an insult to our country.
They are defanging us and do not even offer any sort of economic benefits for it. Iran's main issue at the moment is economic collapse, which is not going to be addressed in the negotiations with that proposed framework.

This is what happens when your enemy sees you're weak and divided.

They are vassalising Iran more and more into China. They already import 80-90% of our oil.

 

[StrategicBear]

Young Iranians are "Westernized" but are not Leftists? Many Leftists in the West hate Racist White People and want to defang conservatives in their own countries. Spain's Leftists recently Legalized previously illegal immigrants from Africa hoping to "replace" the Native Conservative voter base.

If those Westernized Iranians are Leftists they would want the Leftists in the West to overthrow Conservatives like Trump too, right?

 

[dbc]

IMHO, Trump is not going to attack Iran. He has a razor thin margin in the legislative branch. Any unprovoked attack on Iran is not supported by public opinion. Besides, the current administration will not risk any US casualties so worst case we're looking at long range stand off munitions. I believe the administration is posturing or waiting for a false flag justification that will turn public opinion. I personally don't want hostilities between our nations and I'm hopeful the American public are finally waking up to the fact that this hostility is engineered by a third party.

 

[ShapurII]

Young Iranians are "Westernized" but are not Leftists? Many Leftists in the West hate Racist White People and want to defang conservatives in their own countries. Spain's Leftists recently Legalized previously illegal immigrants from Africa hoping to "replace" the Native Conservative voter base.

If those Westernized Iranians are Leftists they would want the Leftists in the West to overthrow Conservatives like Trump too, right?

We do have a lot of anti-Israel Westernized people in Iran as well.

The thing is that the regime has been acting so horrifically with its internal policies that it has left no room for people to support it anymore. So, for many people, the situation is now about siding with the Bad against the Worse.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

My prediction is that Iran will be plunged into an worse situation than now should a regime change happens backed by outside powers. Netanyahu will ideally like to see a fragmented Iran and if that's not happening then at least a toothless Iran like Lebanon is.

Actually regime change on intervention of foreign powers is always negative as foreign powers are always seeing their own interests and not the interests of natives.

If Iranian people wants to bring a new regime then its a different story.

 

[Mehdipersian]

1) The Iranian 1979 revolution's foreign policy has failed: It had annoyed not only the Western/Zionist interests in the region but also neighboring Arab countries.

Unfortunately, the Arabs in the region have no will of their own and are completely under the control of America and Israel. The reason for their hostility towards Iran is not due to their national interests:

 

[mulj]

IMHO, Trump is not going to attack Iran. He has a razor thin margin in the legislative branch. Any unprovoked attack on Iran is not supported by public opinion. Besides, the current administration will not risk any US casualties so worst case we're looking at long range stand off munitions. I believe the administration is posturing or waiting for a false flag justification that will turn public opinion. I personally don't want hostilities between our nations and I'm hopeful the American public are finally waking up to the fact that this hostility is engineered by a third party.

Irrelevant what you and public think, how many times it has to be repeated that americans do not have agency about those matters under this kind of socio political setup within state frame. Trump will obey or videos will emerge, consequences are irrelevant.
Iran is threat to the occupiers in palestine due effectiveness and impact of their missile forces and it has to be neutered by all means in perspective of ziojews.
So, they say jump americans answer how high, that is reality of things.

 

[mulj]

Unfortunately, the Arabs in the region have no will of their own and are completely under the control of America and Israel. The reason for their hostility towards Iran is not due to their national interests:
View attachment 177063

It is fake pic.