Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

I originally didn't want to participate in this discussion, but there are too many people on this forum spreading misinformation about China for their own purposes.

1. China does import oil from Iran, but the data differs significantly from what some Iranians here are claiming.
In recent years, Russia has consistently been China's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for approximately 17.5%-19.5% of China's total imports. It has never reached 20%. Saudi Arabia ranks second.
In recent years, China's oil imports from Iran have mainly been conducted through transit trade via third countries. Currently, the largest transit country is Malaysia. Malaysia is also a transit country for China-Venezuela oil trade. That is, the China-Malaysia oil trade data (according to Chinese official data) actually equals the sum of oil trade between China and Iran, Venezuela, and Malaysia. In 2025, China-Malaysia oil trade accounted for 11.9% of China's total imports, ranking third. This data cannot be broken down to show Iran's data separately.

2. The price of oil supplied by Iran to China. The quality and delivery methods of crude oil vary greatly among countries. Using China's CIF price as a benchmark, Russian crude oil has the lowest price, usually $5-10/barrel lower than the international benchmark price. Crude oil supplied to China from other Middle Eastern countries is based on the international benchmark price. Crude oil from some countries like Brazil has different quality and therefore a higher price.
The price China actually pays for Iranian oil is lower than the international benchmark price, but higher than the price of Russian crude oil.

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In 2025, China's total crude oil imports were 557.73 million tons. The average daily import volume was approximately 11.55 million barrels/day.
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1. The primary purpose of China's current crude oil imports is strategic reserves, not actual consumption. That is, the vast majority of crude oil imported by China is being stored and not put into consumptive use.

2. China has been undergoing a capacity transformation for many years, with the proportion of crude oil converted into chemical products gradually increasing, while the proportion converted into refined oil products is gradually decreasing. Currently, China's refined oil conversion and consumption rate is already below 50% and continues to decline.

Iran used to give a $6-$8 discount on each barrel, but currently is giving an $11-$12 discount on each barrel to China, with deferred payments. China imports about 1.4 - 1.8 million barrels per day. That adds up to $5B-$7B of discount per year.

Of course, the actual figure is confidential but those estimates are widely believed to be close to the truth per Iranian/Western sources. Also, it doesn't matter whether China is importing this oil for consumption or storage. It's still a billion-dollar profit for China.

 

[Michael]

Iran used to give a $6-$8 discount on each barrel, but currently is giving an $11-$12 discount on each barrel to China, with deferred payments. China imports about 1.4 - 1.8 million barrels per day. That adds up to $5B-$7B of discount per year.

Of course, the actual figure is confidential but those estimates are widely believed to be close to the truth per Iranian/Western sources. Also, it doesn't matter whether China is importing this oil for consumption or storage. It's still a billion-dollar profit for China.

You don't seem to have seriously understood this data.

China does import crude oil from Iran. The actual delivered price is lower than the international benchmark price, but higher than the price Russia charges China. As for the $11-12 per barrel discount you mentioned, that's possible. But that's not China's true cost. Malaysia, acting as an intermediary in this trade, would charge a fee. China's actual cost is only about $5 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price.

As for the volume of China-Iran oil trade, it certainly doesn't reach the level of 1.4 million barrels per day. The total volume of oil trade between China and Malaysia, when converted, is approximately 137 barrels per day, which represents the total crude oil trade between Malaysia, Iran, Venezuela, and China. (The latest news is that Indonesia has also joined the ranks of these oil trade intermediaries.)

In conclusion, oil trade between China and Iran exists, but it is far from reaching a significant strategic level. If this trade were interrupted, it would indeed have some impact on China, but the impact would be minimal.

 

[ShapurII]

You don't seem to have seriously understood this data.

China does import crude oil from Iran. The actual delivered price is lower than the international benchmark price, but higher than the price Russia charges China. As for the $11-12 per barrel discount you mentioned, that's possible. But that's not China's true cost. Malaysia, acting as an intermediary in this trade, would charge a fee. China's actual cost is only about $5 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price.

As for the volume of China-Iran oil trade, it certainly doesn't reach the level of 1.4 million barrels per day. The total volume of oil trade between China and Malaysia, when converted, is approximately 137 barrels per day, which represents the total crude oil trade between Malaysia, Iran, Venezuela, and China. (The latest news is that Indonesia has also joined the ranks of these oil trade intermediaries.)

In conclusion, oil trade between China and Iran exists, but it is far from reaching a significant strategic level. If this trade were interrupted, it would indeed have some impact on China, but the impact would be minimal.

Because your data is seriously flawed and wrong. *137 barrels per day?* lmfao
That's hilarious. How can you say such nonsense with such confidence? Nobody sends oil tankers for 137 barrels per day. Do you know how much oil and gas a tanker carries?

Iran's oil income in last fiscal year was close to 40 billion USD. This is something that can be independently verified based on Iranian budget and multitude of economic indicators.
Assuming that China imports 80%-90% of Iran's oil exports, a figure that is undisputed by both Iranian and Chinese members here, that is about $34 billion USD. In fact, the Chinese members love to brag about buying 80% of Iranian oil all the time; hence, I doubt you would like to challenge that figure.

Divide 34 billion USD by 365 to get the daily export volume in US dollar and then divide it by $55-$60 per barrel to the get the daily volume of export in barrels, including the discount in our calculations because last year's Brent price was about $70 per barrel. You will get something close to 1.6 million barrels per day, which is consistent with all credible information online, and it makes logical sense too.

 

[Michael]

Because your data is seriously flawed and wrong. 137 barrels per day? lmfao
That's hilarious. How can you say such nonsense with such confidence? Nobody sends oil tankers for 137 barrels per day. Do you know how much oil and gas a tanker carries?

Iran's oil income in last fiscal year was close to 40 billion USD. This is something that can be independently verified based on Iranian budget and multitude of economic indicators.
Assuming that China imports 80%-90% of Iran's oil exports, that is about $34 billion USD.

Divide 34 billion USD by 365 to get the daily export volume in US dollar and then divide it by $55-$60 per barrel to the get the daily volume of export in barrels. You will get something close to 1.6 million barrels per day, which is consistent with all credible information online, and it makes logical sense too.

When I entered the number, I missed the word "万." The actual amount is 1.37 million barrels.

Chinese national statistics show that total imports from Malaysia are approximately 1.37 million barrels per day. This represents the total volume of crude oil exported to China from Malaysia, Iran, and Venezuela combined. You can estimate Iran's share of this figure as you see fit.

 

[ShapurII]

When I entered the number, I missed the word "万." The actual amount is 1.37 million barrels.

Chinese national statistics show that total imports from Malaysia are approximately 1.37 million barrels per day. This represents the total volume of crude oil exported to China from Malaysia, Iran, and Venezuela combined. You can estimate Iran's share of this figure as you see fit.

OK. Glad that you clarified it because 137 barrels per day was clearly way off. 1.37 million barrels per day makes a lot more sense.

Obviously, Malaysia is not a major oil exporter. So, only Iran and Venezuela are left. Now, even if we assume Iran is responsible for 50% of that, it's still a billion dollar profit for China. Not bad at all, is it?

 

[Pak-Warrior]

US is asking IRI to transfer the half a tonne HEU to third country, that Trump claimed USAF destroyed through B2s. Wtf lol

US destroyed the 3 largest and core nuclear sites of Iran and there is not a shred of doubt about that. Iran cannot enrich any further Uranium.

US didn't claim that they destroyed the Uranium which was already enriched.

There is some amount of 60% enriched uranium with Iran (Weapon grade is 90% though). 60% enriched Uranium can be used to make a low powerful but a physically a very large sized bomb (like a school bus). Cannot be transported via BMs. Possible through containers.

 

[Michael]

OK. Glad that you clarified it because 137 barrels per day was clearly way off. 1.37 million barrels per day makes a lot more sense.

Obviously, Malaysia is not a major oil exporter. So, only Iran and Venezuela are left. Now, even if we assume Iran is responsible for 50% of that, it's still a billion dollar profit for China. Not bad at all, is it?

You can calculate the specific figures yourself.

The actual cost China pays for Iranian oil is approximately $5 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price. The price of crude oil supplied by Russia to China is approximately $5-10 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price. I'm referring to the cost at the point of delivery in China.

Malaysia is also an oil-producing country. However, their oil trade data is clearly anomalous.

Returning to the main topic, oil trade between China and Iran does exist, but it has not yet reached a strategic level. Using this trade to infer China's strategic decisions is clearly meaningless.

 

[ShapurII]

You can calculate the specific figures yourself.

The actual cost China pays for Iranian oil is approximately $5 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price. The price of crude oil supplied by Russia to China is approximately $5-10 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price. I'm referring to the cost at the point of delivery in China.

Malaysia is also an oil-producing country. However, their oil trade data is clearly anomalous.

Returning to the main topic, oil trade between China and Iran does exist, but it has not yet reached a strategic level. Using this trade to infer China's strategic decisions is clearly meaningless.

That $5 figure used to be correct (almost), but it is outdated now.
After the June war with Israel, China has ramped up oil imports from Iran (even Trump tweeted about it and claimed he had allowed it) and Iran has increased its discount to China as well. Also, add deferred payments and payment in RMB to the equation too. That gives China even more economic profit.

 

[925boy]

The USA military power with multiple carriers is already 10 times more powerful than UK+France combined(I don't include Germany since their navy doesn't even have 1 Aircraft Carrier), so Iran shouldn't worry about fighting all of NATO since the USA is NATO, and Turkey as a Muslim power would sit one out, so I think Iran should bomb that Cyprus NATO base with IRBMs if necessary to take out that air base so UK F-35s can't operate out of that base.

1.US apparently only has a 3rd of its carriers on active duty- rhe rest are in long term maintenance.

2. There is no guarantee turkey will not be instructed to attack Iran during rhe upcoming US - israeli - nato operation against Iran. Any neighbour of Iran might joon in the attack in Iran. And so when ira ian officials recently said they are ready for any eventuality, i hope they r really correct.

 

[925boy]

You can calculate the specific figures yourself.

The actual cost China pays for Iranian oil is approximately $5 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price. The price of crude oil supplied by Russia to China is approximately $5-10 per barrel lower than the international benchmark price. I'm referring to the cost at the point of delivery in China.

Malaysia is also an oil-producing country. However, their oil trade data is clearly anomalous.

Returning to the main topic, oil trade between China and Iran does exist, but it has not yet reached a strategic level. Using this trade to infer China's strategic decisions is clearly meaningless.

With no access to Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil has apparently become '"strategic"for China. China likle buys alot of volume kf Iranian oil ,just in secret, so many, like you, will think its not occurring that much, and that means china won- it will keep buying Iranian oil as long as it can, it has no other option if it wants to maintain amd grow its large amd expanding economy.

 

[ShapurII]

US destroyed the 3 largest and core nuclear sites of Iran and there is not a shred of doubt about that. Iran cannot enrich any further Uranium.

US didn't claim that they destroyed the Uranium which was already enriched.

There is some amount of 60% enriched uranium with Iran (Weapon grade is 90% though). 60% enriched Uranium can be used to make a low powerful but a physically a very large sized bomb (like a school bus). Cannot be transported via BMs. Possible through containers.

Exactly. I don't even know what "destruction" of enriched uranium with bombing means in the first place? It is clear that you cannot destroy enriched uranium, you can only destroy uranium enrichment facilities.

I mean uranium is an element. You cannot destroy an element by bombing it, wtf?
It can burn or explode in chemical reactions such as oxidation, or get dispersed into smaller, finer pieces, but you cannot destroy an element by bombing it because chemical reactions do not provide enough energy to cause a nuclear reaction.

Only a nuclear reaction can change an element to other elements, i.e. "destroy" an element. Needless to say that isolation of uranium by chemical reactions is not that hard and energy/time consuming. It is physical separation of uranium isotopes that is difficult.

On your second note, THEORETICALLY, 60% enriched uranium can be used in a weapon, but you will need insane compression power with extremely precise timing in nano/femto seconds to cause an implosion which makes it impossible in practice.

You're right: Your critical mass will be huge, but since critical mass of a uranium sphere is proportional to the inverse-square of density, one may hope that with really high compression, generous neutron initiation and proper tamping, you can even use 60% uranium in a weapon. Still, since 40% of atoms in the core absorb neutrons but do not contribute to the chain reaction, the chain reaction will come to a stop prematurely. Also, compression has serious practical limits due to heating, phase shifts and unpredictable hydrodynamics.

 

[tsunset]

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Is this claim believable? If true, what was the point of massing all of that military might to the Arabian Sea in the first place?

Or perhaps this claim, if true, is designed for Iran to let its guard down.

Lastly, the US CSG came from South China Sea, so why would it go back to the US?

 

[VCheng]

what was the point of massing all of that military might in the Arabian sea in the first place?

Both sides try to build a position of strength as best as possible, before engaging in negotiations. It is common sense.

 

[Michael]

With no access to Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil has apparently become '"strategic"for China. China likle buys alot of volume kf Iranian oil ,just in secret, so many, like you, will think its not occurring that much, and that means china won- it will keep buying Iranian oil as long as it can, it has no other option if it wants to maintain amd grow its large amd expanding economy.

You have been misled by Western media on much of this information.

1. China is indeed the world's largest oil importer. However, many people overlook the fact that China is also the 6th or 7th largest oil producer globally.
Among the world's oil-producing countries, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have long been in the top tier, with daily production exceeding 10 million barrels; Canada, Iraq, and China have similar production levels, with daily production of 4.3-4.6 million barrels; the UAE produces 3.9 million barrels per day; Iran produces approximately 3.4 million barrels per day...
China's oil production is even higher than Iran's...

2. In 2025, China's total crude oil imports will be approximately 550 million tons, while China's domestic crude oil production will be 216 million tons. The total amount of crude oil supplied by Iran to China is less than 5% of China's total consumption. How can this constitute a strategic impact?

3. For a long time, the total amount of crude oil actually supplied by Venezuela to China has been negligible. If you doubt this, you can check Venezuela's total oil production.

4. China began industrial system reforms many years ago. Currently, the proportion of crude oil converted into refined oil is already below 50%. With the development of China's new energy strategy and chemical industry, this proportion is continuously falling, approaching 40%. The use of crude oil as an energy source is rapidly declining. Currently, the main use of crude oil in China is shifting towards chemical derivatives.

On the one hand, the United States is the largest oil producer, and their goal in waging oil wars is to get China to buy more American oil. No matter what they do, they ultimately need buyers. And China is the world's largest buyer.

On the other hand, China is accelerating industrial system reforms and continuously reducing its dependence on oil. Most of the crude oil imported by China in recent years has not been used for consumption but has been stockpiled. This fully demonstrates that China's industrial system reforms are working. Once China completely completes its industrial system reforms, we will no longer need to import large quantities of oil.

Whether Iranian oil can be sold to China, or at what price, has very little impact on China.

Given the current circumstances in Iran, if they are willing to sell oil to China at a low price, we will buy some and store it. If they are unwilling to sell, or the price is too high, we simply won't buy it. This will have no impact on China's current economic production. This is just standard business practice.