Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[tsunset]

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[Hassan Al-Somal]

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Is this claim believable? If true, what was the point of massing all of that military might to the Arabian Sea in the first place?

Or perhaps this claim, if true, is designed for Iran to let its guard down.

Lastly, the US CSG came from South China Sea, so why would it go back to the US?

 

[VCheng]

what was the point of massing all of that military might in the Arabian sea in the first place?

Both sides try to build a position of strength as best as possible, before engaging in negotiations. It is common sense.

 

[Michael]

With no access to Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil has apparently become '"strategic"for China. China likle buys alot of volume kf Iranian oil ,just in secret, so many, like you, will think its not occurring that much, and that means china won- it will keep buying Iranian oil as long as it can, it has no other option if it wants to maintain amd grow its large amd expanding economy.

You have been misled by Western media on much of this information.

1. China is indeed the world's largest oil importer. However, many people overlook the fact that China is also the 6th or 7th largest oil producer globally.
Among the world's oil-producing countries, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have long been in the top tier, with daily production exceeding 10 million barrels; Canada, Iraq, and China have similar production levels, with daily production of 4.3-4.6 million barrels; the UAE produces 3.9 million barrels per day; Iran produces approximately 3.4 million barrels per day...
China's oil production is even higher than Iran's...

2. In 2025, China's total crude oil imports will be approximately 550 million tons, while China's domestic crude oil production will be 216 million tons. The total amount of crude oil supplied by Iran to China is less than 5% of China's total consumption. How can this constitute a strategic impact?

3. For a long time, the total amount of crude oil actually supplied by Venezuela to China has been negligible. If you doubt this, you can check Venezuela's total oil production.

4. China began industrial system reforms many years ago. Currently, the proportion of crude oil converted into refined oil is already below 50%. With the development of China's new energy strategy and chemical industry, this proportion is continuously falling, approaching 40%. The use of crude oil as an energy source is rapidly declining. Currently, the main use of crude oil in China is shifting towards chemical derivatives.

On the one hand, the United States is the largest oil producer, and their goal in waging oil wars is to get China to buy more American oil. No matter what they do, they ultimately need buyers. And China is the world's largest buyer.

On the other hand, China is accelerating industrial system reforms and continuously reducing its dependence on oil. Most of the crude oil imported by China in recent years has not been used for consumption but has been stockpiled. This fully demonstrates that China's industrial system reforms are working. Once China completely completes its industrial system reforms, we will no longer need to import large quantities of oil.

Whether Iranian oil can be sold to China, or at what price, has very little impact on China.

Given the current circumstances in Iran, if they are willing to sell oil to China at a low price, we will buy some and store it. If they are unwilling to sell, or the price is too high, we simply won't buy it. This will have no impact on China's current economic production. This is just standard business practice.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Broke US is trying to break Iran, in order to break China's oil supply and power growth, to stop China from breaking US's hegemony in fhe world because US's control of the world is broken.

Did I get that right or ??

I think their (Trump administration) issue is not Iranian oil going to China; it is the trade conducted outside the US Dollar and Iran receiving revenues from this trade conducted outside their control.

 

[mangekyo]

BRICS is benign. IRI-Russia-PRC seem to be inclined towards a semi-block of their own. IRI-Russia post 2020 seem have strengthened their military relations a bit more. Russia has thrown IRI under the bus on atleast 6-7 times before so distrust is there. IRI and China have dozens of billion USD worth trade which is increasing. In 2010 it was 1/15 of what it is now.

You need to bring something to the table for such partnerships. Iran brings nothing unique to the table but headache. PGCC has a combined wealth fund of around 6 trillion dollars. China imports 80-90% of Iranian oil with huge discounts. They have a death grip on Iranian economy. Any lost Iranian oil can be replaced with Saudi oil.

Israels debt to GDP ratio rose by almost 10% from 12 days of war with Iran. Israeli Stockmarket skyrocketed. How is that possible? The capital is coming from PGCC funds. Especially from UAE.

Next step is to continue burdening Israel with debt, while PGCC asset strips Israel. China wants the middle east to be China-PGCC. This is also in line with transnational capital. Anyone in Iran who objects to chinas plan for the Middle East gets liquidated by Iranian internal coup; Soleimani, Raisi, Hajizadeh etc. Iran is just nice to have for discounted oil while the transition of power happens.

 

[VCheng]

Whether Iranian oil can be sold to China, or at what price, has very little impact on China.

You make great points, but please keep in mind the inherent tendency here to tend to overestimate one's own nation's importance on the world stage.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

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[ToddE]

You need to bring something to the table for such partnerships. Iran brings nothing unique to the table but headache. PGCC has a combined wealth fund of around 6 trillion dollars. China imports 80-90% of Iranian oil with huge discounts. They have a death grip on Iranian economy. Any lost Iranian oil can be replaced with Saudi oil.

For Saudi oil, Chinese will need to pay back in USD which they will need to purchase against something of their own considering nobody is gonna exchange RMB to USD in such huge numbers. Also the oil will come at market rate. Its not this simple.

Israels debt to GDP ratio rose by almost 10% from 12 days of war with Iran. Israeli Stockmarket skyrocketed. How is that possible? The capital is coming from PGCC funds. Especially from UAE.

Israelis dont have to worry at all because most of the creditors are in their pocket or their own people sitting inside financial institutions of west. Israel had such economic dents before. Just like weaponry, they summon money out of nowhere and get back to it.

Next step is to continue burdening Israel with debt, while PGCC asset strips Israel. China wants the middle east to be China-PGCC. This is also in line with transnational capital. Anyone in Iran who objects to chinas plan for the Middle East gets liquidated by Iranian internal coup; Soleimani, Raisi, Hajizadeh etc. Iran is just nice to have for discounted oil while the transition of power happens.

I think this new group we keep seeing in IRI has no interest in Israel and rightly so. They are kinda systematically getting rid of likes of staunch anti-Israeli elements like Gen. Soleimani, Raisi, Hajizadeh types. Khamenei is old and will be gone naturally in time. Process gets accelerated if war + riots happen again.

 

[LX1111]

That $5 figure used to be correct (almost), but it is outdated now.
After the June war with Israel, China has ramped up oil imports from Iran (even Trump tweeted about it and claimed he had allowed it) and Iran has increased its discount to China as well. Also, add deferred payments and payment in RMB to the equation too. That gives China even more economic profit.

China will not bail out Iran. China's diplomatic strategy in the Middle East has always been based on the Pakistan-Gulf countries-Iraq line.
Other countries can also supply the oil that Iran provides. If the United States wants to cut off the oil transport route from the Persian Gulf to China, then China will be unable to obtain Iranian oil, just like Saudi oil.Therefore, the existence of the current Iranian regime cannot improve the security of China's oil import routes.
Therefore, China will not invest too many resources in the current Iranian regime.

 

[LX1111]

For Saudi oil, Chinese will need to pay back in USD which they will need to purchase against something of their own considering nobody is gonna exchange RMB to USD in such huge numbers. Also the oil will come at market rate. Its not this simple.

China holds the rights to two-thirds of Iraq's oil fields, so we don't lack sources of oil imports. China's trade surplus last year was $1.2 trillion, so China isn't too worried about oil prices. What China is concerned about is the security of shipping routes from the Persian Gulf to China—how to ensure they aren't cut off by the Americans.

 

[kastor ville]

I wonder what is going on in Tel-Aviv nowadays. They're constantly in the news with Gaza and Epstein. Their crown jewel of an organization AIPAC is getting defeated in the US regional races. They're economy is in the toilet...They're borrowing money to keep afloat. We just heard their strongest advocate in the House of Lords...Just resigned, which may eventually bring down the Starmer government. I mean, from close up it looks like theyre winning battles, but they're losing the war.

 

[ToddE]

US destroyed the 3 largest and core nuclear sites of Iran and there is not a shred of doubt about that.

Can you provide actual published evidence for this statement? I will comment further when you bring the evidence of exact level of destruction but for now even IAEA or credible watchdogs TT's like CFR have not confirmed anything or been to the site so how does one know what really happened hundreds of feets below surface ?

Iran cannot enrich any further Uranium.

Then what do you think US and IRI are bargaining on in Oman? If enrichment was "gone beyond doubt” then the core US demand would be about stockpiles + monitoring, not “no enrichment” that US is constantly demanding. The demand itself suggests the capability is viewed as sustained, not magically erased.

US didn't claim that they destroyed the Uranium which was already enriched.

You are wrong. Trump literally said "nothing was taken out", and Hegseth said "nothing" was moved i.e. they were publicly saying that HEU got caught in the attack. And Ratcliffe also said later that most enriched uranium is trapped under rubble.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-known-intelligence-that-iran-moved-uranium-us-defense-chief-says-2025-06-26/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/26/iran-underground-nuclear-us/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

If bombs reached wherever it was stored then you are not talking about shipable cylinders anymore, you are talking about debris of earth, concrete, sand, rocks, half a tonne HEU mixed into it spread everywhere. The recovery itself will need probably hundreds of millions of USD and extremely well equipped teams (who is gonna provide that?) for recovery and radiological cleanup with uncertain material accountancy. Even the IAEA has indicated it couldnot account for HEU stockpile after the strikes. So what exactly is US asking for here?

There is some amount of 60% enriched uranium with Iran (Weapon grade is 90% though). 60% enriched Uranium can be used to make a low powerful but a physically a very large sized bomb (like a school bus). Cannot be transported via BMs. Possible through containers.

And water is wet. I guess everybody knows what LEU, HEU, EGU is. Some of us including me (since its our matter) have even written paragraphs on how many tactical-theatre level fission or boosted fission devices can be made out of available HEU->WGU using spread out cascades of IR-4M->IR-8/9 and where etc. I actually posted a thread on it. Anyways.

 

[mulj]

I stomped on some propaganda video about launching rockets underwater, video was russian one but is there any possibility that Iran extended tunnels below sea level at least to have some fixed launching points under sea bed for while in case of potential war?

 

[ToddE]

I wonder what is going on in Tel-Aviv nowadays. They're constantly in the news with Gaza and Epstein. Their crown jewel of an organization AIPAC is getting defeated in the US regional races. They're economy is in the toilet...They're borrowing money to keep afloat. We just heard their strongest advocate in the House of Lords...Just resigned, which may eventually bring down the Starmer government. I mean, from close up it looks like theyre winning battles, but they're losing the war.

They are going nowhere. AIPAC, IAC etc are just one way of keeping grip over Congress and other venues in US.

Epstein files leverage seem to be lost though. People are not reacting to it the way Jews would have hoped.