SMASH SLBM Testing - Nov 2025

[Corax]

but human capital is never the biggest expense when setting up these sorts of facilities

That may well be true, but then shifting the benefits from any potential large scale orders abroad would be counter productive too. I bet it would still be cheaper to expand production capacity in Pakistan from any export order rather than shifting that production abroad.

 

[puttputt]

I find the idea of Pakistan exporting ToT for scaling productions somewhat ironic given that it mostly imports ToT from elsewhere, like the JF17, it would be far easier and cheaper to scale production in Pakistan given the abundance of human capital at a fraction of the cost of other places. Secondly, while it may be relatively easy to export products like F1/F2 that have wider appeal amongst foreign militaries, it may not be so easy in the case of SMASH, which seems like a throwaway idea by the Pak navy and military, it's like they were brainstorming one afternoon in a board meeting and someone said "I know, let's stick F2 on a ship!" lol probably because they couldn't come up with a more appropriate design and this was far easier and cheaper solution.

What NESCOM, HIT, etc offer is that they can do the design and development work at a lower cost. So, if you are some manufacturer in Central Europe, going to Pak can help you fast track a product from R&D into production. In return, Pak will buy the machining and tooling from the the manufacturer.

 

[StrategicBear]

Talwar class is 15 meter beam.
If we draw a circle of 10m radius on a 15 m wide square.
37% of the circle area will be outside of the square.
That is a 63 % chance of hitting i guess.
Not great in a top down attack. But 63% chance of hitting is good enough if two missiles are fired per target.

In an real war scenario, commanders would usually want to fire 2-3 ASBMs per ship, and also up to a massive salvo of 50-100 ASBMs to sink not only a carrier but the entire carrier battle group.

But missiles are cheaper and faster to produce than Naval Ships and Carriers, so even expending 100+ ASBMs to attack an Indian carrier group(which has inferior AD compared to US CVBG which definitely needs 200+ for higher chances of success) is good enough.

 

[safriz]

In an real war scenario, commanders would usually want to fire 2-3 ASBMs per ship, and also up to a massive salvo of 50-100 ASBMs to sink not only a carrier but the entire carrier battle group.

But missiles are cheaper and faster to produce than Naval Ships and Carriers, so even expending 100+ ASBMs to attack an Indian carrier group(which has inferior AD compared to US CVBG which definitely needs 200+ for higher chances of success) is good enough.

پائی جی۔
مٹھا تھوڑا گھٹ رخسو

 

[Corax]

What NESCOM, HIT, etc offer is that they can do the design and development work at a lower cost. So, if you are some manufacturer in Central Europe, going to Pak can help you fast track a product from R&D into production. In return, Pak will buy the machining and tooling from the the manufacturer.

That depends what product we're talking about, there's a limit to what can be designed and developed in Pakistan. Even F1/F2 probably involved quite a bit of "borrowed" tech from the Chinese.

 

[puttputt]

That depends what product we're talking about, there's a limit to what can be designed and developed in Pakistan. Even F1/F2 probably involved quite a bit of "borrowed" tech from the Chinese.

Yep, for sure, it'd be the products we already have experience with, especially munitions.

 

[safriz]

But that's only one trajectory. Please see the post I quoted.

Ok now try my way of calculation.
I saw a Mach wave in the video. You may have seen it too. Here is the screenshot.

Can you see the very faint Parabola?



Here it is again, i hand drew a line over it .




Now i used the Mach wave formula as explained here





The Mu angle i Gimped and i seems to be anywhere between 33 and 36 degrees.

So as per that formula, and the mean angle of 34 degrees of the shock wave, the velocity at impact is 2191 Kph or Mach 1.78.


The mach wave screenshot was from this Potato cam video from ISPR which is 360p , and you can see the Supersonic shockwave moving on the ground.
There is only one frame of the moment just after the impact where the missile impact point and the Mach wave are in the same picture. I used that frame.
Here is the reference video.

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[JamD]

Ok now try my way of calculation.
I saw a Mach wave in the video. You may have seen it too. Here is the screenshot.

Can you see the very faint Parabola?
View attachment 177500


Here it is again, i hand drew a line over it .

View attachment 177501


Now i used the Mach wave formula as explained here


View attachment 177502


The Mu angle i Gimped and i seems to be anywhere between 33 and 36 degrees.

So as per that formula, and the mean angle of 34 degrees of the shock wave, the velocity at impact is 2191 Kph or Mach 1.78.


The mach wave screenshot was from this Potato cam video from ISPR which is 360p , and you can see the Supersonic shockwave moving on the ground.
There is only one frame of the moment just after the impact where the missile impact point and the Mach wave are in the same picture. I used that frame.
Here is the reference video.

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For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Unfortunately, you're making two mistakes:
1. You're guestimating the angle
2. You're assuming the missile is coming in perfectly horizontally when in fact the real situation is like this (image thanks to power of AI), which is making you only see a hyperbola (NOT a parabola, if you remember your conic sections), whose tangent lines are making an angle on the ground that you are underestimating the angle and thus overestimating the speed:

This picture shows what is likely happening (exaggerated) - the actual Mach angle is super big (lower Mach) but on the ground you see a HYPERbola with much smaller angle and you think it is faster:

 

[JamD]

Unfortunately, you're making two mistakes:
1. You're guestimating the angle
2. You're assuming the missile is coming in perfectly horizontally when in fact the real situation is like this (image thanks to power of AI), which is making you only see a hyperbola (NOT a parabola, if you remember your conic sections), whose tangent lines are making an angle on the ground that you are underestimating the angle and thus overestimating the speed:
View attachment 177504
This picture shows what is likely happening (exaggerated) - the actual Mach angle is super big (lower Mach) but on the ground you see a HYPERbola with much smaller angle and you think it is faster:
View attachment 177505

Actually I misspoke. It is a parabola and it is i who doesn't remember their conic sections. Regardless of this the rest of my point stands valid all the same.

 

[hasssanali8998]

parabola

ah lets just call it hyperbola but restricted to x>0

 

[Ali_Baba]

Does Pakistan have any plans to develop ALBM missiles based of the Fatah series?

Would be a great reuse of the infrastructure to build/support these systems if there were air launched variants(albeit smaller) that the PAF could use.

Commonality will bring cost savings in lower procurement costs compared to the smaller ALCM that are procured in smaller batches and therefore will be a lot more expensive per unit.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Does Pakistan have any plans to develop ALBM missiles based of the Fatah series?

Would be a great reuse of the infrastructure to build/support these systems if there were air launched variants(albeit smaller) that the PAF could use.

Commonality will bring cost savings in lower procurement costs compared to the smaller ALCM that are procured in smaller batches and therefore will be a lot more expensive per unit.

I think no such known plans. CM400AGK doing job for now.

 

[Ali_Baba]

I think no such known plans. CM400AGK doing job for now.

It is doing the job in taking care of S400s for sure, but it is an expensive platform for exclusive use on equally expensive targets. PAF has procured only 50 of them for that reason.

 

[safriz]

Her

It is doing the job in taking care of S400s for sure, but it is an expensive platform for exclusive use on equally expensive targets. PAF has procured only 50 of them for that reason.

48 remaining.
2 had been put to good use.
So good that Nerender Modi himself had to go and do the cover up drama

 

[safriz]

Unfortunately, you're making two mistakes:
1. You're guestimating the angle
2. You're assuming the missile is coming in perfectly horizontally when in fact the real situation is like this (image thanks to power of AI), which is making you only see a hyperbola (NOT a parabola, if you remember your conic sections), whose tangent lines are making an angle on the ground that you are underestimating the angle and thus overestimating the speed:
View attachment 177504
This picture shows what is likely happening (exaggerated) - the actual Mach angle is super big (lower Mach) but on the ground you see a HYPERbola with much smaller angle and you think it is faster:
View attachment 177505

Here is the angle .



Can you make adjustments to the mach wave as seen on the ground at the moment of impact ?
With this angle in mind.

That shape on the ground gives you almost precise shape of the cone when thr missile is travelling at the angle shown in the screenshot.

This parabola is pretty well defined.