Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

If the US foolishly goes in for those 2 provinces, then Iran should go scorched-earth and take out every Gulf Arab oil refinery, massively mine Hormuz, and hit back at the US Navy with all anti-ship missiles they have.

Population-wise, Iran can overwhelm any US "boots on the ground" easily with suicide drones, suicide vehicles and mass mobilization of Basijis.

Provided that Iran has enough suicide drones, but we probably don't. We fired fewer than 1,000 drones at Israel in the 12-day war. In comparison, Russia fires over 1,000 Shahed drones at Ukraine in a single day recently.

Also, do not even think that our ground forces or Basij would be able to get close to the US troops if the Americans manage to set foot on the Iranian soil. I mean how do we want to do that without aviation support for our troops? How do we want to transport our troops when the USAF dominates the sky and the IRIAF will be nowhere to be found?

 

[hasssanali8998]

We fired fewer than 1,000 drones at Israel in the 12-day war

i think that is because israel is very far that would not be the case if US takes over iranian provinces .

 

[ShapurII]

i think that is because israel is very far that would not be the case if US takes over iranian provinces .

Yes, but Israel is still within the range of Shahed-136 and our strategy to counter the superior technology of the US and NATO has always been to overwhelm their defenses with swarm attacks. In fact, this was one of the main reasons for the introduction of Shahed in the first place, and we failed to execute that as planned.

There is no doubt that technology-wise, we're decades behind the US. We always counted on the low price of our equipment to mass-produce them in large enough numbers to use swarm attacks and asymmetric tactics to compensate for that gap.

 

[LX1111]

Provided that Iran has enough suicide drones, but we probably don't. We fired fewer than 1,000 drones at Israel in the 12-day war. In comparison, Russia fires over 1,000 Shahed drones at Ukraine in a single day recently.

Also, do not even think that our ground forces or Basij would be able to get close to the US troops if the Americans manage to set foot on the Iranian soil. I mean how do we want to do that without aviation support for our troops? How do we want to transport our troops when the USAF dominates the sky and the IRIAF will be nowhere to be found?

If I were Iran, I would buy North Korean missiles. North Korean missiles are clearly more advanced than Iranian ones. Iran's most advanced medium-range missiles are still traditional liquid-fueled missiles, while North Korean missiles are far more advanced.


Purchasing a small number of North Korean missiles would be enough to destroy Israel's THAAD and Arrow-3 systems.

 

[Mehdipersian]

could be true, given our history.

But, I dont think, Epstein is the man to deal with us.

It could involve more rooted and proven setup like CIA and others (hard to identify and separate out like Esptein).

Most of these Arabs and Emiraties, are the owners of companies with thousands of employees. DP world is the largest port in the ME with thousands of employees. Why would they need Epstein for his services?!

The trade of large numbers of children as sex slaves is not natural and requires high levels of financial, political, security and judicial influence.

The only group in Europe and America that can do this are the Jews.

 

[ShapurII]

If I were Iran, I would buy North Korean missiles. North Korean missiles are clearly more advanced than Iranian ones. Iran's most advanced medium-range missiles are still traditional liquid-fueled missiles, while North Korean missiles are far more advanced.
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Purchasing a small number of North Korean missiles would be enough to destroy Israel's THAAD and Arrow-3 systems.

I think our missile force was probably our only force that did well in the 12-day war, as much as could be done with physical limitations of ballistic missiles.

Our problem is our lack of industrial capability, poor planning and lack of proper investment by the regime. Our military spending used to be extremely low for a country of our size with our powerful enemies.

I did read your comments about Iran's air defenses. I think we had good air defense systems, but we did not have them in enough numbers (also, Israel really surprised us by taking them out from within our territory). When you do not have an air force to create a buffer zone that puts your air defenses out of the firing range of Israeli or US air forces, you have to have a much denser AD network with lots of redundancy for sensitive areas and with anti-ballistic capabilities. We had none. Four battalions of S300-PMU2 and one operational Bavar-373 are too few for a country as large as Iran. We needed 10x more, at least.

Also, Iranian terrain is ideal for cruise missiles. Lots of mountains with blind spots for radars. We had OTH radars, but again, not in enough numbers. Israel took most of our OTH radars in its initial attack before the 12-day war, effectively blinding us against ALCMs.

 

[Mehdipersian]

If I were Iran, I would buy North Korean missiles. North Korean missiles are clearly more advanced than Iranian ones. Iran's most advanced medium-range missiles are still traditional liquid-fueled missiles, while North Korean missiles are far more advanced.
View attachment 177816
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Purchasing a small number of North Korean missiles would be enough to destroy Israel's THAAD and Arrow-3 systems.

You know nothing about Iranian missiles. The only thing the North Koreans have done that Iran hasn't done is missiles with a range of over 2,000 kilometers that are designed for nuclear strikes.

 

[LX1111]

You know nothing about Iranian missiles. The only thing the North Koreans have done that Iran hasn't done is missiles with a range of over 2,000 kilometers that are designed for nuclear strikes.

This is Iranian arrogance. North Korea has already exported large quantities of ballistic missiles similar to the Iskander to Russia, and has also conducted test launches of hypersonic missiles. According to South Korean reports, the tests were successful.Moreover, it is a warhead that truly travels at Mach 5 throughout its entire atmospheric journey, unlike the Iranian missiles that can only accelerate in a straight line at the final stage.

The Iranians are still working to upgrade their 2,000km-class liquid-fueled missiles to solid-fueled ones.

 

[ShapurII]

This is Iranian arrogance. North Korea has already exported large quantities of ballistic missiles similar to the Iskander to Russia, and has also conducted test launches of hypersonic missiles. According to South Korean reports, the tests were successful.Moreover, it is a warhead that truly travels at Mach 5 throughout its entire atmospheric journey, unlike the Iranian missiles that can only accelerate in a straight line at the final stage.
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The Iranians are still working to upgrade their 2,000km-class liquid-fueled missiles to solid-fueled ones.

We have had solid-fueled MRBMs since 2007. Read about the Sejjil missile. Its terminal speed is Mach 13 and it was used against Israel in the 12-day war in the last days.

 

[LX1111]

think our missile force was probably our only force that did well in the 12-day war, as much as could be done with physical limitations of ballistic missiles.

Our problem is our lack of industrial capability, poor planning and lack of proper investment by the regime. Our military spending used to be extremely low for a country of our size with our powerful enemies.

Iran's missile forces do indeed possess the capability to launch attacks despite enemy air strikes.

did read your comments about Iran's air defenses. I think we had good air defense systems, but we did not have them in enough numbers (also, Israel really surprised us by taking them out from within our territory). When you do not have an air force to create a buffer zone that puts your air defenses out of the firing range of Israeli or US air forces, you have to have a much denser AD network with lots of redundancy for sensitive areas and with anti-ballistic capabilities. We had none. Four battalions of S300-PMU2 and one operational Bavar-373 are too few for a country as large as Iran. We needed 10x more, at least

For Iran's limited resources, investing in a large number of advanced air defense systems would be too expensive. For example, purchasing 20 battalions of S-400 or HQ-9B missiles would be far more costly. I believe the Iranians should purchase two squadrons of J-10C or Su-35 fighters. Although they might not be able to defeat the F-35I, this would force the Israelis to commit a large number of fighter jets to air combat, greatly increasing the difficulty of Israeli air strikes and buying time for the relocation and launch of missile units.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

This is actually very plausible and it is one of the scenarios that I have long considered to be the final blow.

This is why I say that the Islamic Republic has lost their last card: public support. It all started after Aban 98, but it got much worse after Mahsa Amini protests and the last month's protests. If the US manages to occupy Iranian territory in Khuzestan and Bushehr (two provinces of Iran that possess most of our oil and gas infrastructure), Iran is over. We will face severe cash shortage that could cause hyper inflation and famine.

In fact, Iranian economy has three pillars: 1. Tehran, as it contributes the most to our government's budget and GDP through taxing and industry, 2. Bushehr, and 3. Khuzestan. And all of these provinces are extremely anti-IR to the point that they will give Americans a heroic welcome instead of fighting back.

Question: What is to stop the Iranians from hitting oil tankers or fields in the Persian Gulf at that point? They can be hit from almost anywhere in central Iran. Large, stationary targets.

You might claim that this would trigger a devastating American retaliation, but if they sieze Iran's ports and oil&gas, what is to stop them from doing it? I'm fairly certain they aren't that stupid. The logistics of such an undertaking is too cumbersome with little upside. Too risky.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

We have had solid-fueled MRBMs since 2007. Read about the Sejjil missile. Its terminal speed is Mach 13 and it was used against Israel in the 12-day war in the last days.

Yes, that is correct.

 

[ShapurII]

Iran's missile forces do indeed possess the capability to launch attacks despite enemy air strikes.

For Iran's limited resources, investing in a large number of advanced air defense systems would be too expensive. For example, purchasing 20 battalions of S-400 or HQ-9B missiles would be far more costly. I believe the Iranians should purchase two squadrons of J-10C or Su-35 fighters. Although they might not be able to defeat the F-35I, this would force the Israelis to commit a large number of fighter jets to air combat, greatly increasing the difficulty of Israeli air strikes and buying time for the relocation and launch of missile units.

I have always been an advocate for the revival of Iranian air force. However, some people might argue that nobody was willing to sell us jet fighters at the time. OK, but we could still purchase air defense systems as they are purely defensive. We spent over 50 billion USD in Syria to save a sex-addict gamer that escaped to Moscow after 11 days. In comparison, 4 battalions of S-300 cost Iran $700-$800 million dollars in 2007.

 

[ShapurII]

Question: What is to stop the Iranians from hitting oil tankers or fields in the Persian Gulf at that point? They can be hit from almost anywhere in central Iran. Large, stationary targets.

You might claim that this would trigger a devastating American retaliation, but if they sieze Iran's ports and oil&gas, what is to stop them from doing it? I'm fairly certain they aren't that stupid. The logistics of such an undertaking is too cumbersome with little upside. Too risky.

The USAF and the regional IADS operated by NATO. We can certainly have a shot at it, and we will most likely succeed to destroy some of these oil and gas terminals, but it will not liberate our occupied territory, will it? Without Bushehr and Khuzestan, we won't have money to feed our citizens, let alone continue the war.

I think the real factor here is the lack of will to do that. Both by the regime and the people. First of all, the Iranian system is too corrupt and we have too many people with their families living abroad, or with multi-billion dollar businesses abroad, among the elites in the political system. Secondly, the Iranian people are not willing to fight on behalf of the regime. The gap between the people and the establishment have grown too much in the last 3 years and it has never been as huge as now since last month.

 

[LX1111]

We have had solid-fueled MRBMs since 2007. Read about the Sejjil missile. Its terminal speed is Mach 13 and it was used against Israel in the 12-day war in the last days.

The missile you're referring to is probably similar to North Korea's Hwasong-10 missile, with a warhead weighing only 500 kg. The information I can find is that Iran's main deterrent missile against Israel is the Khorramshahr-2 missile, which can carry a 2-ton warhead, but it is still a liquid-fueled missile.