Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

Even complete U.S. air dominance is not sufficient to destroy Iran's ability to block oil & gas transport in the Persian Gulf. It really doesn't take much to block ships from transitting. I actually predict that Iran's oil & gas facilities won't be hit in the first days of the conflict. The U.S. knows that will trigger Iranian action against the rest of the of oil & gas infrastructure in the region. I suppose that is Iran's "nuclear" option, if they are willing to use it.

This is no longer 2006. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not convince the US to stop the war prematurely. In fact, that would hurt China and Europeans more than the US at this point. In fact, it would hurt China first and foremost. What makes you think that the US will stop its military aggression prematurely over something that does not directly impact them and is in fact bad for their main adversary?

And no, the U.S. does not have enough interceptors to prevent that from happening. Absolutely not. Too many defensive points across a vast area. They need to cover the entire Persian Gulf + sea-adjacent land in the Persian Gulf monarchies, northern Iraq, Israel, Jordan. They need to cover some areas in Yemen / Red Sea.

They also need to fly sorties over a mountainous country the size of western europe (3 times the size of Ukraine).

They need to take out MRBMs, SRBMs and their smaller launchers, take out the cruise missiles, take out the drones and other type of loitering munitions. This is in addition to destroying Iranian security / military C2, ballistic missile manufacturing & assembly facilities. They need to destroy nuclear facilities & targets associated with them.

Remember when Trump fired 80 tomahawk-cruise missiles on Syria in his first term? They struck that airport. Within a week, they had repaired the damage and it was up and running. Think of all of the munitions that Russia has fired on Ukraine, a country 1/3 the size of Iran. Yet most of Ukraine actually looks completely untouched by the war.

Let's not underestimate the amount of munitions that is needed to destroy large countries.

The US will destroy nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure as the primary targets. But besides that, they will target the energy infrastructure and food silos like they did in Iraq in 2003. Then move on to anti-riot forces, Basij and IRGC centers.

When the US dollar hits 300 IRT, when food shortage hits Iran and people start to starve, when anti-riot forces have been neutralized, do you seriously think Iranians, who were massacred by the regime just a month ago after peaceful protests, will accept that and say OK, let's give this regime another chance to rule over whatever wasteland remains of Iran after the war and funnel our money to Hamas and Hezbollah or their oligarchy? Good luck with that.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

You mean Khamenei.

it's not just Khamenei

it's embedded throughout the upper echelons of the military

from Salami to Hajizadeh to Mousavi etc

 

[ToddE]

Iranians have extreme level individual egoes, stubbornness and narcissism. The self loathing fetish is rampant. Then there is this "I told you so" soothsayer syndrome crowd to whom being proven right is above even national integrity. IRI ruined Iranian mind to the core.

 

[tsunset]

US/Israel warming up its bot farms against Iran

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[Ali_Baba]

This is no longer 2006. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not convince the US to stop the war prematurely. In fact, that would hurt China and Europeans more than the US at this point.

In this case, those affected countries can apply pressure on the USA to stop their operations as a counter ?

In fact, it would hurt China first and foremost. What makes you think that the US will stop its military aggression prematurely over something that does not directly impact them and is in fact bad for their main adversary?

I wouldn't worry about China, yes this will strategically affect China as China will effectively lose an oil supplier, but if that does not concern China enough to do anything about it, then no one should worry about what effect it will have on China either.

 

[ToddE]

it's not just Khamenei

it's embedded throughout the upper echelons of the military

from Salami to Hajizadeh to Mousavi etc

They all came out of eggs laid by Khamenei led IRI. Khomeini while being another Islamic zealot atleast had a nationalistic mind as he dealt with Israel and US. Khamenei sacrificed Iran in name of ideology of fighting Israel-US for Palestine.

 

[Watandar]

US/Israel warming up its bot farms against Iran

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I have noticed such social media campaigns launched in sync with a military op by the Israelis. It is a sign for those who know what to look for.

 

[ToddE]

I see three regional countries being phugged by IRGCASF when war starts. They have it coming.

It will be a 2-3 weeks long campaign. IRI won't go anywhere neither with IRGC or their missiles. 2-3 months later we will find out, most of it were just punches in clouds from both sides. Like how suddenly both sides are now discussing half a tonne of HEU, that "magically" re-appeared at bargaining tables after Trump, Hegseth, Ratcliffe chimped around for weeks claiming its destruction 6 months ago and IRI nodded. Its almost like both of these sides are fooling their publics as a team.

 

[ShapurII]

In this case, those affected countries can apply pressure on the USA to stop their operations as a counter ?

They can but at the end of the day, it is the US that decides what to do and we have most recently seen this very clearly in the US tariffs against its allies.
The US is currently the only super power in the world, followed by China with a huge margin. The US cannot be pressured into changing its plan after they have been finalized. And it seems that the US administration has made up its mind about the war with Iran. So, in short, nobody can pressure the US into anything.

I wouldn't worry about China, yes this will strategically affect China as China will effectively lose an oil supplier, but if that does not concern China enough to do anything about it, then no one should worry about what effect it will have on China either.

The Chinese may opt for the easiest option: Be patient, reach an agreement with the US not to intervene and receive oil contracts in the future. I cannot for the life of me imagine China willing to interfere in any positive way for Iran. Also, China has already filled their strategic oil reserves with cheap oil from Russia and Iran for years. They don't need to make an irrational move.

 

[Arash]

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Either this account I very very well informed OR it is a clown account that ça be dismissed. We will see that this week-end !!!!

 

[Ali_Baba]

They can but at the end of the day, it is the US that decides what to do and we have most recently seen this very clearly in the US tariffs against its allies.
The US is currently the only super power in the world, followed by China with a huge margin. The US cannot be pressured into changing its plan after they have been finalized. And it seems that the US administration has made up its mind about the war with Iran. So, in short, nobody can pressure the US into anything.

What happened to "sell us Greenland" or we will "invade it" ? Europe told Trump to take a hike, and he did. The USA is totally dependent on logistic support from Europe for this war. There is no other way they can do it without Europe. That gives Europe some leverage.

The Chinese may opt for the easiest option: Be patient, reach an agreement with the US not to intervene and receive oil contracts in the future. I cannot for the life of me imagine China willing to interfere in any positive way for Iran.

They can make life difficult for the USA by providing military assistance eg weapons to Iran in the same way USA gave weapons to Ukraine, but they choose not to. Yes, they can make a short term deal but when the "drop" happens between China and the USA, then both Venezuela and Iran will be forced to turn off the taps to China at a time of conflict and China will lose that as a source while the USA will not. So, the USA will gain a significant military advantage over China by controlling all oil supplies to China.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

I see three regional countries being phugged by IRGCASF when war starts. They have it coming.

It will be a 2-3 weeks long campaign. IRI won't go anywhere neither with IRGC or their missiles. 2-3 months later we will find out, most of it were just punches in clouds from both sides. Like how suddenly both sides are now discussing half a tonne of HEU, that "magically" re-appeared at bargaining tables after Trump, Hegseth, Ratcliffe chimped around for weeks claiming its destruction 6 months ago and IRI nodded. Its almost like both of these sides are fooling their publics as a team.

Which ones do you predict?

 

[ShapurII]

What happened to "sell us Greenland" or we will "invade it" ? Europe told Trump to take a hike, and he did. The USA is totally dependent on logistic support from Europe for this war. There is no other way they can do it without Europe.

What makes you think that Trump has given up on that? The US has been busy creating a new world order for the past months. First, they destroyed critical components of Iran's nuclear program and they forced Hamas to accept ceasefire. Then they took care of Venezuela. Now they're back to take care of Iran's BM threat. What makes you think they will stop there? I believe, at the very least, they will force Denmark to give unprecedented rights over Greenland to the US, if not invade it by force.

Europe needs the US a hundred times more than the US needs Europe. The US can literally give Ukraine to Russia if Europe does not provide the logistics the US needs. The real difference between the existence of Ukraine on the map and its complete occupation by Russia is the US support for Ukraine.

They can make life difficult for the USA by providing military assistance eg weapons to Iran in the same way USA gave weapons to Ukraine, but they choose not to. Yes, they can make a short term deal but when the "drop" happens between China and the USA, then both Venezuela and Iran will be forced to turn off the taps to China at a time of conflict and China will lose that as a source while the USA will not. So, the USA will gain a significant military advantage over China by controlling all oil supplies to China.

China is not an aggressive state and they prefer to focus on their own development instead of betting on Iran, which is a lost cause because it does not enjoy internal security and legitimacy. They can arm Iran in spite of the US, but what guarantee is there that Iran will not lose this war? The Chinese do not care much for the Ayatollahs in Iran and they have proved that times and times again.

 

[Meengla]

So is it going to be this weekend? Perhaps, after 5 PM on Friday, NYC time??

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