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This is no longer 2006. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not convince the US to stop the war prematurely. In fact, that would hurt China and Europeans more than the US at this point.
In fact, it would hurt China first and foremost. What makes you think that the US will stop its military aggression prematurely over something that does not directly impact them and is in fact bad for their main adversary?
it's not just Khamenei
it's embedded throughout the upper echelons of the military
from Salami to Hajizadeh to Mousavi etc
US/Israel warming up its bot farms against Iran
They can but at the end of the day, it is the US that decides what to do and we have most recently seen this very clearly in the US tariffs against its allies.In this case, those affected countries can apply pressure on the USA to stop their operations as a counter ?
The Chinese may opt for the easiest option: Be patient, reach an agreement with the US not to intervene and receive oil contracts in the future. I cannot for the life of me imagine China willing to interfere in any positive way for Iran. Also, China has already filled their strategic oil reserves with cheap oil from Russia and Iran for years. They don't need to make an irrational move.I wouldn't worry about China, yes this will strategically affect China as China will effectively lose an oil supplier, but if that does not concern China enough to do anything about it, then no one should worry about what effect it will have on China either.
They can but at the end of the day, it is the US that decides what to do and we have most recently seen this very clearly in the US tariffs against its allies.
The US is currently the only super power in the world, followed by China with a huge margin. The US cannot be pressured into changing its plan after they have been finalized. And it seems that the US administration has made up its mind about the war with Iran. So, in short, nobody can pressure the US into anything.
The Chinese may opt for the easiest option: Be patient, reach an agreement with the US not to intervene and receive oil contracts in the future. I cannot for the life of me imagine China willing to interfere in any positive way for Iran.
Which ones do you predict?I see three regional countries being phugged by IRGCASF when war starts. They have it coming.
It will be a 2-3 weeks long campaign. IRI won't go anywhere neither with IRGC or their missiles. 2-3 months later we will find out, most of it were just punches in clouds from both sides. Like how suddenly both sides are now discussing half a tonne of HEU, that "magically" re-appeared at bargaining tables after Trump, Hegseth, Ratcliffe chimped around for weeks claiming its destruction 6 months ago and IRI nodded. Its almost like both of these sides are fooling their publics as a team.
What makes you think that Trump has given up on that? The US has been busy creating a new world order for the past months. First, they destroyed critical components of Iran's nuclear program and they forced Hamas to accept ceasefire. Then they took care of Venezuela. Now they're back to take care of Iran's BM threat. What makes you think they will stop there? I believe, at the very least, they will force Denmark to give unprecedented rights over Greenland to the US, if not invade it by force.What happened to "sell us Greenland" or we will "invade it" ? Europe told Trump to take a hike, and he did. The USA is totally dependent on logistic support from Europe for this war. There is no other way they can do it without Europe.
China is not an aggressive state and they prefer to focus on their own development instead of betting on Iran, which is a lost cause because it does not enjoy internal security and legitimacy. They can arm Iran in spite of the US, but what guarantee is there that Iran will not lose this war? The Chinese do not care much for the Ayatollahs in Iran and they have proved that times and times again.They can make life difficult for the USA by providing military assistance eg weapons to Iran in the same way USA gave weapons to Ukraine, but they choose not to. Yes, they can make a short term deal but when the "drop" happens between China and the USA, then both Venezuela and Iran will be forced to turn off the taps to China at a time of conflict and China will lose that as a source while the USA will not. So, the USA will gain a significant military advantage over China by controlling all oil supplies to China.
They all came out of eggs laid by Khamenei led IRI. Khomeini while being another Islamic zealot atleast had a nationalistic mind as he dealt with Israel and US. Khamenei sacrificed Iran in name of ideology of fighting Israel-US for Palestine.