Reichsmarschall
Elite Member
It takes years to train crews and operationalize jets... not to mention doctrine/tactics development
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
It takes years to train crews and operationalize jets... not to mention doctrine/tactics development
ShapurII
Trusted Member
The first 12 hours of the upcoming war will determine its result.
The USAF will undoubtedly dominate the skies of all regional countries, including Iran. Iran's only chance is to cripple the USN in the first hours of the war.
If it doesn't happen by then, the US will be able to inflict unimaginable destruction on Iran's nuclear, ballistic and energy infrastructures without losing much in return.
As I had said before, since Iran is not a nuclear power, a pre-emptive strike against the current formation of the US forces is out of question. The US knows that and that's why their military formation is so vulnerable to a pre-emptive attack. So, Iran is a sitting duck waiting for the US to make the first move. And when they do, the leadership of Iran would be wise to bring their A-game in the first 12 hours and do not try to ration it.
Iran needs 3 things not to lose this war:
1. A high number of ballistic & cruise missiles and drones. Does Iran have that? We will see, but I'm not very optimistic.
2. Resilience. Will Iranians accept potential hyper-inflation and famine after the US attacks Iran? We will see, but again, I'm not optimistic. Iranians are tired of the oligarchy and corruption in Iran.
3. Internal legitimacy. Will Iranians side with the regime like the 12-day battle or side with the Americans and see this as an opportunity to topple the regime? We will see, but the situation has changed a lot after January protests.
And that's what Iran needs not to lose the war. There is absolutely no scenario where Iran can win this war. No scenario at all.
Even in the best case scenario, the US will still get what they want by forcing Iran to fire most of its missiles and drones. So, no matter what happens, whether the US destroys them or Iran fires its own missiles and drones, by the end of the war, the US will have achieved their target of effectively containing our BM threat.
The USAF will undoubtedly dominate the skies of all regional countries, including Iran. Iran's only chance is to cripple the USN in the first hours of the war.
If it doesn't happen by then, the US will be able to inflict unimaginable destruction on Iran's nuclear, ballistic and energy infrastructures without losing much in return.
As I had said before, since Iran is not a nuclear power, a pre-emptive strike against the current formation of the US forces is out of question. The US knows that and that's why their military formation is so vulnerable to a pre-emptive attack. So, Iran is a sitting duck waiting for the US to make the first move. And when they do, the leadership of Iran would be wise to bring their A-game in the first 12 hours and do not try to ration it.
Iran needs 3 things not to lose this war:
1. A high number of ballistic & cruise missiles and drones. Does Iran have that? We will see, but I'm not very optimistic.
2. Resilience. Will Iranians accept potential hyper-inflation and famine after the US attacks Iran? We will see, but again, I'm not optimistic. Iranians are tired of the oligarchy and corruption in Iran.
3. Internal legitimacy. Will Iranians side with the regime like the 12-day battle or side with the Americans and see this as an opportunity to topple the regime? We will see, but the situation has changed a lot after January protests.
And that's what Iran needs not to lose the war. There is absolutely no scenario where Iran can win this war. No scenario at all.
Even in the best case scenario, the US will still get what they want by forcing Iran to fire most of its missiles and drones. So, no matter what happens, whether the US destroys them or Iran fires its own missiles and drones, by the end of the war, the US will have achieved their target of effectively containing our BM threat.
tsunset
The Legend
Pahlavi is an existential threat to Iran and the whole region
The Pahlavi dynasty should come to a permanent end so that no one else will be able to proclaim himself as the Clown Prince of Iran
The Pahlavi dynasty should come to a permanent end so that no one else will be able to proclaim himself as the Clown Prince of Iran
Mehdipersian
Trusted Member
You take him too seriously. He's just a clown.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
That's exactly what the US is trying to convey by that formation in the open air.
See how nicely we have arranged them for you to come after you later? Fire at them if you have the balls. That's what they are telling us.
This is where you can see the difference between a nuclear state and a non-nuclear state with a loudmouth.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
I didn't suggest otherwise
aerospace_enthusiast_newb
Registered Member
Even complete U.S. air dominance is not sufficient to destroy Iran's ability to block oil & gas transport in the Persian Gulf. It really doesn't take much to block ships from transitting. I actually predict that Iran's oil & gas facilities won't be hit in the first days of the conflict. The U.S. knows that will trigger Iranian action against the rest of the of oil & gas infrastructure in the region. I suppose that is Iran's "nuclear" option, if they are willing to use it.
And no, the U.S. does not have enough interceptors to prevent that from happening. Absolutely not. Too many defensive points across a vast area. They need to cover the entire Persian Gulf + sea-adjacent land in the Persian Gulf monarchies, northern Iraq, Israel, Jordan. They need to cover some areas in Yemen / Red Sea.
They also need to fly sorties over a mountainous country the size of western europe (3 times the size of Ukraine).
They need to take out MRBMs, SRBMs and their smaller launchers, take out the cruise missiles, take out the drones and other type of loitering munitions. This is in addition to destroying Iranian security / military C2, ballistic missile manufacturing & assembly facilities. They need to destroy nuclear facilities & targets associated with them.
Remember when Trump fired 80 tomahawk-cruise missiles on Syria in his first term? They struck that airport. Within a week, they had repaired the damage and it was up and running. Think of all of the munitions that Russia has fired on Ukraine, a country 1/3 the size of Iran. Yet most of Ukraine actually looks completely untouched by the war.
Let's not underestimate the amount of munitions that is needed to destroy large countries.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
agree IRI is a non-nuclear state with a loudmouth which gets it into lots of trouble and writes checks it cannot cash
aerospace_enthusiast_newb
Registered Member
Does that account have a credible history? I'm not on Twitter much.
ToddE
Trusted Member
You mean Khamenei.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
This is no longer 2006. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not convince the US to stop the war prematurely. In fact, that would hurt China and Europeans more than the US at this point. In fact, it would hurt China first and foremost. What makes you think that the US will stop its military aggression prematurely over something that does not directly impact them and is in fact bad for their main adversary?
The US will destroy nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure as the primary targets. But besides that, they will target the energy infrastructure and food silos like they did in Iraq in 2003. Then move on to anti-riot forces, Basij and IRGC centers.
When the US dollar hits 300 IRT, when food shortage hits Iran and people start to starve, when anti-riot forces have been neutralized, do you seriously think Iranians, who were massacred by the regime just a month ago after peaceful protests, will accept that and say OK, let's give this regime another chance to rule over whatever wasteland remains of Iran after the war and funnel our money to Hamas and Hezbollah or their oligarchy? Good luck with that.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
it's not just Khamenei
it's embedded throughout the upper echelons of the military
from Salami to Hajizadeh to Mousavi etc
ToddE
Trusted Member
Iranians have extreme level individual egoes, stubbornness and narcissism. The self loathing fetish is rampant. Then there is this "I told you so" soothsayer syndrome crowd to whom being proven right is above even national integrity. IRI ruined Iranian mind to the core.
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