Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mangekyo]

Is that why the regime had to shut down the internet for 3 weeks, and kill 3K people and injure 25K people (per their own official statistics) in just 2 days to suppress the pro-Pahlavi protests? lol Like it or not, Pahlavi is by far the most popular choice. He has millions of supporters inside and outside Iran.

People hate the IRGC right now. If you think after January protests, people will support the IRGC, you are wrong. Majority of Iranians are waiting for the US to bomb Iran. You just need to talk to Iranians on Instagram, YouTube, reddit, X, or even your co-workers. They are even calling for the US to take action against the regime in Iran and you think Iranians want the IRGC to continue their plundering of our wealth for the Arabs in Palestine and Lebanon? You can't mean that.

There is no balkanization of Iran at this point. If anything, I would be afraid of the Balkanization of Iran by a regime that has always prioritized Islam and Arabs over national interests of Iran.

They shut down the internet to track Starlink users and dismantle the Mossad networks. Protests broke out due to currency collapses, not because Iranians wanted the US and Israel to bomb Iran and install a dictator!

IRGC is not a single monolith entity. There are many branches consisting of quds revolutionaries, technocrats, reformists etc. If you claim most Iranians hate IRGC, you either don’t understand how power is concentrated in Iran, or you’re being dishonest.

The delusional monarchist LGBTQ diaspora are the ones who are calling for bombing of Iran. The vast majority of Iranians want sanctions relief and a strong Iranian military to protect them from Israeli and American bombs.

Don’t be a useful idiot. Balkanization is what they have planned for us if IRI falls. Do you seriously believe they are going to install a 65 year old foreigner who can’t even control his wife to manage one of the most complicated countries on earth? A country with one of the largest hydrocarbon reserves, controls some of the most important energy corridors on earth, and has a 90M population who most are extremists?

 

[Persian Gulf]

This situation sucks for Iran in the sense window to preemptive attack successfully has kind of gone with all the defenses in the region and early warning radars.

Hamas saw writing on the wall that Israel will attempt takeover of Gaza in Trump's second term so it pre-empted it and caused significant damage on Israel.

Iranian government doesn't want to be seen as irresponsible and can't take risks like Hamas so it didn't preemptively strike. This means Iranian 1st and 2nd wave of retaliations will not be that effective so we will have to be patient if US attacks, people on this forum will be screaming for retaliation or be defeated for a week or so. Iran will then later get back on its footing.

ideally the missiles are locked and loaded from multiple locations and firing systems and can be fired as soon as an attack is clear, rather than having to wait 17 hours and let Israel knock out as many systems as it can in that time first like in June

 

[Persian Gulf]

Is that why the regime had to shut down the internet for 3 weeks, and kill 3K people and injure 25K people (per their own official statistics) in just 2 days to suppress the pro-Pahlavi protests? lol Like it or not, Pahlavi is by far the most popular choice. He has millions of supporters inside and outside Iran.

800 of those were killed by the Mossad armed terrorists

and the protests started well before Pahlavi said anything, so he can't take credit for that

we never saw evidence of 'millions' of supporters inside Iran

People hate the IRGC right now. If you think after January protests, people will support the IRGC, you are wrong.

I guess you missed the recent pro government 22 Bahman rallies

not your fault, social media is engineered to amplify these narratives

 

[Persian Gulf]

After 12 days war, Ideally Iran should have tried and transported some short range missiles to a secret underground facility in Iraq for future conflicts (Provided if they have strong allies over there). If they had planned and had such a base then it could have caused real blow against that Jordanian airbase now. It would have been an element of surprise. Plus Iran could just put the blame on local militias, if it don't want to looked like doing those strikes.

But I think they don't have any such short range missiles base in Iraq otherwise now is a golden opportunity to use it. Since Qasem solemani they are unable to plan things aggressively. Trump killed Solemani because he was a good strategist of IRGC.

several Iraqi militias have underground drone bases. and one showed a SRBM. one new video released yesterday. these drones have range to reach the US air base in Jordan.

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[Persian Gulf]

Other than the Fattah 1, the CVN is deployed beyond the range of the other 3 so the assumption that you can overwhelm the C-RAM with Shaheds wont really work.
If you take into account the multiple KC135s deployed to the region we can say that the CVN would probably operate out of range of the Fattah too causing losing a few tankers and jets is acceptable compared to the CVN

CSG was last seen 700km from coast of Iran

well in range of those options

 

[Persian Gulf]

Persian Gulf missile and Baseer both have EO sensors for the terminal phase.
I don't think Fattah-1 can target an aircraft carrier, but aircraft carriers are really slow moving objects with predictable path in a short span of time (3-5 minutes).

You're talking about something that weighs 110,000 tons and its top speed is barely 60 km/h. It would take minutes for such a huge vessel to change course in a meaningful way.

yes carriers move and that makes targeting harder

but worth noting ASBMs can reach a target 1000km away in < 10 minutes

which does not leave that much time for movement for the US to detect the launch, figure out the carrier is the target, tell the carrier captain to change direction, and the captain does so

 

[Persian Gulf]

they do not call them "Shaheed" they call them (Javeed nam) meaning "eternal name" ..they do not veil but they dance in the funerals..

can you tell us what roots this dancing at funerals has in our proud Iranian history?

 

[Shags101]

It would be difficult to overmatch a USN carrier group, given that it has jets that can protect it from everything but "ballistic, and hypersonic missiles".

All of the slow moving cruise missiles, etc can be intercepted by jets in the first tier of defence before relying on the cruisers to defend the carrier, and then the CIWS.

If this does turn into a hot war, then we will see how effective this layered defence of a carrier group can be. Alot of military lessons for everyone.

I put Iran how Houthi operated send drones cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at a target and hope for the best but Iran would be larger waves of more sophisticated models we saw how close Houthis came to hitting American naval targets with the small amount they had but yeah if a war did erupt it would take hundreds of drones with dozens of cruise missiles and anti ship ballistic missiles to be remotely successful

 

[Persian Gulf]

And the hate continues. What a pity. This is the topic. Continue with this attitude and the entire region will celebrate your dismantling. Go back to your roots, build relations with all the countries reaching out to you and you will have a much better chance at prospering. For now its as Malik Shabaz said the chickens are coming home to roost.

The Pakistanis you keep mocking, in their own forum no less, have been some of the greatest defenders of Iran's interest despite Iran repeatedly betraying them, attacking them and hosting their enemies the Indians.

Either way countries with delusion of past imperial glories often do poorly in protecting the genuine interests of their people.

your new leader went to Trump's new genocidal 'board of peace' along with Israel and started praising how peaceful Trump is while he threatens to attack Iran

what response did you expect from Iranians to that? don't take it so personally.

 

[Watandar]

"This is Not a Dress Rehearsal": U.S. Engaged in Massive Military Buildup as Threat To Bomb Iran Grows

“In case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it,” Trump has said. Iran remains defiant in the face of ultimatums, pledging unprecedented retaliation to any attack.

www.dropsitenews.com

Dropsite writeup on current events.

Best article I have read on the situation so far.

 

[ShapurII]

I believe the latest protests were engineered from outside using extreme financial means on top of Iran's already bad financial situation which is mostly from the decades old sanctions.

Financial situation in Iran is caused by the oligarchy inside Iran. Sanctions had already reached their maximum level in 2019.
The protests were organic and authentic. It was expected to happen after Mahsa Amini protests. And it will happen again soon.

Bolded part: If Iranians living in Iran think like that then Iran has no future as a nation. But I am usually wary of the online noises--knowing well from Pakistan's own current situation.

Iranians see the current system as their actual enemy. That's why a lot of Iranians are willing to work for Mossad and CIA to topple this regime. And the number has grown exponentially since January protests.

Netanyahu really, really needs a fragmented Iran.

And I really need one billion US dollars. It doesn't mean I'll get it.

Here's a fun fact for you: Khuzestan is a province of Iran with the highest amount of oil reserves in Iran. And guess what? Khomeini offered Yaser Arafat to relocate Palestinians there. The demography of Khuzestan has always been maintained to be not completely Arab. That move would've made Arabs completely dominant in our most strategic province. And you think the Ayatollahs are less dangerous than Netanyahu for Iran's territorial integrity? Think again. Masoud Pezeshkian is a pan-Turk president. His son is more pro-Turkey than Turkish citizens.

 

[Persian Gulf]

View attachment 179915

These things can turn very aggressively.

they have a tendency to lose F-18 fighter jets when they do that

 

[Meengla]

please don't get too cocky, we are looking at a dozen or so meaningful impacts from 600 missiles and > 1000 drones

Glad some Iranians like you know the reality of Iran's fighting potentials.
Look at what has been done to Iran in last 1-2 years vs what was done since before that since 1979. Facts speak for themselves and facts point to an Iran greatly weakened in last 1-2 years, leading to this looming frontal war. But when I pointed that out a few days ago, people like @Bharatah and others disagreed with me and some even said I was echoing 'Zionist' propaganda.
But I wasn't. I was connecting the dots, which I usually do and generally better at than discussing the ranges of missiles.

 

[mangekyo]

Financial situation in Iran is caused by the oligarchy inside Iran. Sanctions had already reached their maximum level in 2019.
The protests were organic and authentic. It was expected to happen after Mahsa Amini protests. And it will happen again soon.

Oh really?

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[ShapurII]

They shut down the internet to track Starlink users and dismantle the Mossad networks. Protests broke out due to currency collapses, not because Iranians wanted the US and Israel to bomb Iran and install a dictator!

IRGC is not a single monolith entity. There are many branches consisting of quds revolutionaries, technocrats, reformists etc. If you claim most Iranians hate IRGC, you either don’t understand how power is concentrated in Iran, or you’re being dishonest.

The delusional monarchist LGBTQ diaspora are the ones who are calling for bombing of Iran. The vast majority of Iranians want sanctions relief and a strong Iranian military to protect them from Israeli and American bombs.

Don’t be a useful idiot. Balkanization is what they have planned for us if IRI falls. Do you seriously believe they are going to install a 65 year old foreigner who can’t even control his wife to manage one of the most complicated countries on earth? A country with one of the largest hydrocarbon reserves, controls some of the most important energy corridors on earth, and has a 90M population who most are extremists?

You don't need to shut down the internet to find Starlink users. Starlink dishes are not passive. You can easily detect them with SIGNIT vehicles. This concept is as old as 1980s. Also, the IR has a history of shutting down the internet when protests happen. They did that in Aban 98 and during Mahsa Amini protests. Starlink didn't even exist in Iran then. So, try again.

Millions of Iranians, including me, would rather see Iran balkanized than to live with the Mullahs who want to give Iran to Iraqis, Lebanese and Palestinians. I would happily live in a land-locked Tehran if it means that not even a single penny of my resources will be spent on Arabs who hate Iran with a passion. And I'm sure millions of Iranians share that sentiment. Whoever will be installed, even Maryam Rajavi, will be better than Khamenei and his thugs for sure.

The period of scaring people about Balkanization is over. The Islamic Republic is by far the biggest threat to Iran's territorial integrity and national security.