Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present
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_Arabia_
Trusted Member
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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Israel bombs a Lebanese man carrying out maintenance work on his roof in south Lebanon
the man was killed
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #3,139
The occupation army launched 87 airstrikes on Lebanon last month, the highest since the announcement of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and "Israel".
Falcon29
Elite Member
Israeli terrorist Nazi regime has murdered dozens of Palestinians and Lebanese today in numerous attacks across Lebanon
Israeli appetite is increasing at behest of US demented religious fanatical support for Israel
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Israeli appetite is increasing at behest of US demented religious fanatical support for Israel
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Falcon29
Elite Member
In a separate Israeli attack two Palestinians were killed in Ein el Hilweh refugee camp :
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The two martyrs, Bilal al-Khatib and Muhammad al-Sawi, who ascended after the occupation's shelling of Ein el-Hilweh camp in Lebanon.
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The two martyrs, Bilal al-Khatib and Muhammad al-Sawi, who ascended after the occupation's shelling of Ein el-Hilweh camp in Lebanon.
Persian Gulf
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8 Hezbollah members killed in Israel's bombing in Bekaa. 4 of them were reportedly senior rocket/missile officers.
along with 10 civilians killed and 24 others injured, including 3 children
Hezbollah continues to not respond
but we cannot blame Hezbollah, everyone is in the same situation
Persian Gulf
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upsetting that these guys are still meeting in person in the same buildings during wartime conditions. I understand they need to communicate and meet sometimes, but surely they have tunnels under the mountains and can limit to smaller groups and constantly change locations ...
anyway, I am sure they do their best and know better than me.
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
Hezbollah needs to change their modus operandi if they want to survive as anything other than a localized political movement.
A start would be to merge with the actual Lebanese army and military. Which for starters would give them international legitimacy and would prevent Israel from hiding behind the "terrorist label" that they also use and have used against every Palestinian resistance group, whether Islamic, secular, nationalist, pan-Arab etc. in nature.
Likewise correct their past and current mistakes and reach out to the other Lebanese communities (Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze) in order to truly create an unified Lebanese voice which currently does not exist - only on paper.
You cannot defeat Israel with militias - you need strong national armies.
But even the Lebanese Hezbollah supporters know the truth of what I have written but due to the selfish reasons of the Hezbollah leadership, they will never give away their power and would rather prefer the current status quo and their slow death - than unifying with the Lebanese army.
That is not to mention the entire Syrian chapter where their crimes against the Syrian people are not forgotten and where they are deeply hated. This is a problem as Lebanon is fully surrounded by Syria on all sides aside from the Mediterranean and the southern border with "Israel". So they need to do something in this regard (apologize, give financial aid to Syrian victims - potentially extradite some of their fighters/members who committed crimes against Syria and the Syrian people) but likely none of this will occur so their reputation in Syria next door will not improve either, nor will Syria come to their aid. Which I do not blame them for. Nobody in their position would.
A start would be to merge with the actual Lebanese army and military. Which for starters would give them international legitimacy and would prevent Israel from hiding behind the "terrorist label" that they also use and have used against every Palestinian resistance group, whether Islamic, secular, nationalist, pan-Arab etc. in nature.
Likewise correct their past and current mistakes and reach out to the other Lebanese communities (Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze) in order to truly create an unified Lebanese voice which currently does not exist - only on paper.
You cannot defeat Israel with militias - you need strong national armies.
But even the Lebanese Hezbollah supporters know the truth of what I have written but due to the selfish reasons of the Hezbollah leadership, they will never give away their power and would rather prefer the current status quo and their slow death - than unifying with the Lebanese army.
That is not to mention the entire Syrian chapter where their crimes against the Syrian people are not forgotten and where they are deeply hated. This is a problem as Lebanon is fully surrounded by Syria on all sides aside from the Mediterranean and the southern border with "Israel". So they need to do something in this regard (apologize, give financial aid to Syrian victims - potentially extradite some of their fighters/members who committed crimes against Syria and the Syrian people) but likely none of this will occur so their reputation in Syria next door will not improve either, nor will Syria come to their aid. Which I do not blame them for. Nobody in their position would.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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- #3,147
Hezbollah exists because the central Lebanese government abandoned south Lebanon, and it was Hezbollah who resisted Israel's occupation of the south and expelled them from 1982-2000.
Strong national armies never defeated Israel even when they all worked together, let alone now. We don't need to go through the history of that.
The Lebanese army is too busy giving up Hezbollah tunnels for Israel to consider merging with Hezbollah. And the Lebanese government is subject to intense influence by the US government.
But clearly Hezbollah is in a very precarious situation and if radical steps are available to improve their legitimacy and pursue their objectives in other ways, they should consider them.
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
There has never been any strong "central government" in Lebanon to begin with which is part of the problem. Hence the civil wars. A reason for this is that Lebanon was specifically carved out of Syria to act like a French Christian fiefdom. Or rather more specifically what is modern-day Lebanon is a Druze Arab creation of this tribe and former ruling family:
Emirate of Mount Lebanon - Wikipedia
Israel has never occupied all of Lebanon. It occupied parts of the south due to geographic proximity.
Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon (1982–2000) - Wikipedia
They certainly prevented Israel from expanding. They are certainly a much better alternative than a militia. Not to mention from a diplomatic/political viewpoint.
I don't think you understand how much Israel has gained politically by labelling all of their enemies as "terrorists". They would not be able to come away with that if they faced or attacked a unified Lebanese military composed of every religious group in Lebanon.
That is because the Lebanese state and military is being hijacked by Hezbollah.
In no sane state would a militia, largely founded by outside powers (Iran) be accepted to run the game as they have been doing. Iran would not accept it.
Well my solution is the only viable solution because the Israelis have the military and political overhand and they will not tolerate Hezbollah regaining their previous influence or power. They will constantly attack them and they will have the support of even the Lebanese government and military.
If they are somehow worried that they will not be properly represented in a "new Lebanon", they need to handle that through political means and this would also require structural changes within Lebanon itself and that can only be solved by Lebanese themselves.
At the end of the day this is all about the weakness of Lebanon itself as a country and the lack of unity among Lebanese factions. The country remains deeply divided despite the Ta'if agreement that ended the civil war.
Take this from someone who has actually visited the country. Beirut to this day is heavily segregated (parts of it) based on religious affiliation. I don't recall ever seeing that anywhere in the Arab world other than in Baghdad during the height of the civil war post-US invasion. So this should tell you about how bad it is in terms of lack of political unity.
That is without mentioning their economic collapse and rampant corruption.
Which ironically prevents the powerful and influential Lebanese diaspora (there are many more Lebanese people outside of Lebanon than within Lebanon) from contributing and rebuilding the country. One of the largest Lebanese diaspora in the region are based in KSA. Many Lebanese Christians in particular. They are not incapable people so this is all due to lack of unity and structural problems that they themselves have created and are not ready/eager to change. Their whole political system is sectarian in nature as well. I see no attempts from them of changing this to electing capable people regardless of origin for instance. So it is difficult to help a society that does not want to help itself.
I wish nothing but the best for Lebanon and the Lebanese people, even the ordinary Hezbollah foot soldiers who wishes no harm/has no hatred for fellow Arab Muslims, KSA and who did not support the killing of their Syrian brothers and sisters on behalf of Al-Assad and who does not agree with the drug smuggling of Hezbollah (completely illegal in Islam) etc. But even if none of this applies, I have respect for those among them who protect their families and land. But Lebanon is much more than just Hezbollah and the Shias of the South with all due respect.
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kobra
Registered Member
Looks like Hezbollah has accepted their fate. They have given up hope and have lost the will to fight anymore. Its better to give in into lebanese government demand and save precious young lives. In one year sincr ceasefire, israil has killed more than 200 hzb operatives in their homes and vehicles, while they havent fired a single bullet. What sort of ceasefire is this? What a tragic end to one of the bravest and lethal resistance force on Earth.
Falcon29
Elite Member
They operate like Islamic Jihad in Gaza does. Same exact ways and I'm telling you from experience. Hamas helped Islamic Jihad with their comms system/restructuring of chain of command and helped secure protection of their commanders ever since the Joint Operations Room was formed so they got better but when they act on their own they operate this way. Hamas gained something out of integrating them into JoR (additional firepower so Hamas can quietly focus on bigger military projects for future conflicts ie Toofan Al-Aqsa that they were secretly preparing for ) . But also Hamas had more control over escalation dominance so other factions in Gaza don't act unilaterally. And if they have to, then they need to consult JoR so Hamas can make necessary political preparations with allies and mediators incase situation goes out of control. While also letting them know they're not alone, Hamas has their back if Israel gets too escalatory and/or starts targeting civilians heavily, thus they can measure their response....
I can tell you Hezbollah does not have an extensive tunnel network to move weapons around which is due to the difficult terrain in Lebanon, small less densely populated villages in southern Lebanon (they need most rockets there because ranges are short), and their freedom of operation is somewhat limited across all of Lebanon as they avoid some areas to avoid domestic tensions
I do not believe that Israel actually believed Hezbollah could fire 1-3K rockets per a day. There's no way they believed that.
Hezbollah was never really that invested in rockets. Hamas was because it drove out settlers that previously occupied parts of Gaza. Hezbollah tries to operate as a more tactical force. This was showcased by their attempts to throw in a mix of artillery/drones at the Israeli bases/military infrastructure in the north. But their weapons are too weak to be able to achieve that. It's like they're trying to be a Ukrainian like force that mount tactical strikes on Russia. Ukrainians have more advanced heavy weaponry to do that and a huge number of drones.
Imo it makes sense for Hezbollah to shift its military doctrine and embrace being a tactical force that can deliver more strategic and precise hits. Katayusha rockets can still play a role of keeping Israeli defense systems/radars busy. They would have to be used in large numbers in early days of any future skirmish. But otherwise they need to procure cruise missiles, more effective drones, short range ballistic missiles and their firing ground needs to be from deep in Lebanon like Beqaa and Beirut, and also the central Lebanon regions. South Lebanon is too exposed.
Hezbollah should aim to deliver precise strikes on strategic targets like Ukraine does with Russia and like Russia does with Ukraine. On a much smaller scale because they lack certain platforms like aerial ones, but it can be done in an asymmetric nature.
However that requires Hezbollah to think big and stop playing it safe. Ie step out comfort zone, stop treating northern Lebanon as a safe zone off limits to conflict so they don't uspet the local population. South Lebanon lacks strategic depth. I believe Hezbollah also mistakened their presence in Syria as adding more strategic depth for the movement, as in thinking southern Syria could be a front against Israel as well. It wasn't and the infrastructure was never laid.
It's odd how not a single cruise missile was fired by Hezbollah during the entire conflict. But Iran equips Ansarallah or gives them the know how ?
Hezbollah has to evolve now or face permanent regression.
