Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Meengla]

You know why it doesn't happen? Because Iran knows that it cannot play the madman. There is no reason to be afraid of a false flag operation when it is your legal right to take pre-emptive action against a country whose president has publicly stated that they're preparing to attack you. False flag? If we could, we would've done it and accepted responsibility for it proudly. But we can't.

Firstly, I do believe that the Arab countries don't want an attack on Iran. Those days are gone; Geopolitics changes.

As to the quoted part, I don't think you are making sense. What is your point? Are you saying a mere 'legal right' is good enough to fall into Netanyahu's trap? This is a Superpower we are talking about!

 

[ToddE]

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[StrategicBear]

I also believe IRGC still keeps Top Secret "Trump Card" weapons they have not revealed publicly yet. It's co-developed and co-researched with either Chinese or NK engineers and scientists.

 

[mulj]

Here is a hypothetical but likely scenario for the war, if it happens:

1. The USN will stay way out of the range of Iran's AshBMs initially.
2. The USAF and the IAF will bomb Iranian missile sites and OTH radars in the opening hour of the war aggressively. They will also assassinate top commanders of Iranian forces, particularly the IRGC.
3. After Iran's OTH radars and missile sites have been neutralized, the USN will get close to Iranian shores to strike the remaining targets using cruise missiles, particularly the police, Basij and anti-riot forces.

In the meantime, Kurdish and Baluch separatists will start attacking Iranian border cities while the remaining anti-IR forces in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz and other major cities will attack police stations and strategic targets like the IRIB, the parliament, the airports, etc.

This way the US will incur minimal casualties and Trump will be able to save face by saying that he did take care of Iran's BM threat and helped Iranians.

You know that Iran now has real time data when attack is conducted?
By knowing that c&c will be much easier with lot of options for counter attacks and air defence ambushes.

 

[ShapurII]

Why 2500km? OSINT sources on X clearly shows one of the USN aircraft carriers still within less than 1000kms away from Iran's coast. If I'm not mistake, around the waters of Oman?

This is the most recent location of Abraham Lincoln CSG that I could find online, as of Feb. 23rd.

War is multi-domain and everything becomes possible if other party escalates. So far US and Iranian engagements have lacked escalation from both sides for the reasons I stated. But saying that options do not exist is stupidity. If we go by your theory of just bundling up because enemy is a superpower than why even build a military complex ? Ukraine should have welcomes Russians in Kiev instead of fighting.

US and Iranian engagements have lacked escalation from both sides? The US assassinated the head of Quds force in Iraq and bombed our nuclear facilities by entering our air space. That's not escalation in your book?
So far, the US and Israel have been escalating regularly and Iran has been overlooking them and trying to de-escalate.

Ukraine had the support of NATO including the US + non-NATO allies of the US. We are on the opposite side of the spectrum here.

 

[ShapurII]

You know that Iran now has real time data when attack is conducted?
By knowing that c&c will be much easier with lot of options for counter attacks and air defence ambushes.

And you claim that based on what? People who say China is providing Iran intel? How do you know it's real time and what it includes?

 

[Meengla]

And you claim that based on what? People who say China is providing Iran intel? How do you know it's real time and what it includes?

Alastair Crooke is generally credible and not hard to believe what he's saying.

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[mulj]

And you claim that based on what? People who say China is providing Iran intel? How do you know it's real time and what it includes?

I claim it on reports that chinese deliver real time intel from their sats which they already leaked into public.
In that scenario you will have probably attacks from one direction jewistan/jordan which should be manageable for defenders. I do not see realistic scenario where americans conduct sudden attack from multiply directions with impunity.

 

[ToddE]

View attachment 180675
This is the most recent location of Abraham Lincoln CSG that I could find online, as of Feb. 23rd.


US and Iranian engagements have lacked escalation from both sides? The US assassinated the head of Quds force in Iraq and bombed our nuclear facilities by entering our air space. That's not escalation in your book?

High chances or hints exist that Soleimani was burnt from inside. Do you think its a coincidence that one after another, all the staunch Revolutionary minded Anti-Israel elements inside Iran have been either killed in targeting Soleimani, Bagheri, Salami, Fakhrizadeh, Davani or through some strange accident like Raisi and Abdollahian were assassinated and their own government just called it an accident within an hour. Meanwhile likes of Larijani, Zarif, Rohani, Araghachi, Ghalibaf types keep on going, even elevated ? What about generals that have coordinated with US in past like Yahya Raheem Safavi, Ghaani, Mousavi, Hatami ? We live in a revolutionary system with polarized society. Did not Zarif himself called Soleimani an extremist in a subtle way? You can call this a coincidence but what about unexplainable currency fall every-time Reformists take office even with massive export money in hand that magically disappear from bank Merkazi? It has happened twice within last 10 years and people start to protest against mullahs.

Revolution is over, there is a deep state + elite class that exists in IRI now. If you go by think tanks, they are resetting the system.

So far, the US and Israel have been escalating regularly and Iran has been overlooking them and trying to de-escalate.

IRI cant nuke washington if you are looking for that. So far IRI has missiled Israeli cities, shattering western tech and Israeli invincibility aura they had created over decades by giving severe beatings to arab countries. IRI has challenged petro base of USD by threatening the very hydrocarbon entire US empire is standing on (remember 2019), even right now they are escalating by circulating hundreds of USD worth RMB in markets which dents USD with every cycle of trade. Trump is not stupid that he is basically asking Iran to get back into western fold and leave Chinese RMB. Am I in favor of this? not exactly but facts are facts.

Ukraine had the support of NATO including the US + non-NATO allies of the US. We are on the opposite side of the spectrum here.

Ukraine has 1/20th military capability of IRI but it kept going because its a normal country and so is IRI. War is money then comes alliances then military capability and IRI has done some nasty business in past. Do not forget when push came to shove these very same people have coordinated with US, Israelis themselves. Nothing has changed. Your theory of we should just bundle up against US is not how things work.

 

[ShapurII]

High chances or hints exist that Soleimani was burnt from inside. Do you think its a coincidence that one after another, all the staunch Revolutionary minded Anti-Israel elements inside Iran have been either killed in targeting Soleimani, Bagheri, Salami, Fakhrizadeh, Davani or through some strange accident like Raisi and Abdollahian were assassinated and their own government just called it an accident within an hour. Meanwhile likes of Larijani, Zarif, Rohani, Araghachi, Ghalibaf types keep on going, even elevated ? What about generals that have coordinated with US in past like Yahya Raheem Safavi, Ghaani, Mousavi, Hatami ? We live in a revolutionary system with polarized society. Did not Zarif himself called Soleimani an extremist in a subtle way?

I think you are missing the point. It doesn't matter who ratted him out or whether there was internal collaborators or not. The United States took him out and accepted full responsibility for it. That is escalatory, isn't it? You claimed that both Iran and the US were not escalating. That isn't how things have happened in the last 8 years.

So, what's next? You will claim that Israel's attack on Iran and the US strikes on our nuclear facilities were inside jobs too? So, they aren't escalatory?

IRI cant nuke washington if you are looking for that. So far IRI has missiled Israeli cities, shattering western tech and Israeli invincibility aura they had created over decades by giving severe beatings to arab countries. IRI has challenged petro base of USD by threatening the very hydrocarbon entire US empire is standing on (remember 2019), even right now they are escalating by circulating hundreds of USD worth RMB in markets which dents USD with every cycle of trade. Trump is not stupid that he is basically asking Iran to get back into western fold and leave Chinese RMB. Am I in favor of this? not exactly but facts are facts.

Nobody said that the IRI should nuke Washington.
The IRI has every right to take pre-emptive measures because the US president has publicly stated that they're preparing for an attack on Iran. We are basically waiting for the US to make the first move and impose the war on us.

Ukraine has 1/20th military capability of IRI but it kept going because its a normal country and so is IRI. War is money then comes alliances then military capability and IRI has done some nasty business in past. Do not forget when push came to shove these very same people have coordinated with US, Israelis themselves. Nothing has changed. Your theory of we should just bundle up against US is not how things work.

Ukraine has 5% of Iran's military capability? Says who? Based on what? lol

 

[ShapurII]

Alastair Crooke is generally credible and not hard to believe what he's saying.

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I claim it on reports that chinese deliver real time intel from their sats which they already leaked into public.
In that scenario you will have probably attacks from one direction jewistan/jordan which should be manageable for defenders. I do not see realistic scenario where americans conduct sudden attack from multiply directions with impunity.

I don't know about the nature of this real-time intel. All I have seen so far are a bunch of satellite photos of the US military assets in neighboring countries that weren't that detailed and could've been purchased.

When Israel attacked Iran, the Iranian leadership knew about it at least one hour beforehand. It didn't stop Israel from assassinating our top IRGC generals.

In fact, Gen. Salami called Jebeli (the head of the IRIB) around 1:30 AM that night and said Israel would attack us tonight. So, they knew it was going to happen but the Israelis still managed to assassinate them and caught us by surprise.

 

[Immortals]

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[Meengla]

I don't know about the nature of this real-time intel. All I have seen so far are a bunch of satellite photos of the US military assets in neighboring countries that weren't that detailed and could've been purchased.
When Israel attacked Iran, the Iranian leadership knew about it at least one hour beforehand. It didn't stop Israel from assassinating our top IRGC generals.
In fact, Gen. Salami called Jebeli (the head of the IRIB) around 1:30 AM that night and said Israel would attack us tonight. So, they knew it was going to happen but the Israelis still managed to assassinate them and caught us by surprise.

The real time intelligence from China is a theory even if a credible analyst like Mr. Crooke is saying that. It may or may not be true. These matters are usually very secretly guarded.
However, unless the so-called 'Spheres of Influence' theory is credible, where China is given a lot of control in the Pacific Ocean, it is in China's interests to bog down American resources in yet another Middle Eastern war for Israel. The Chinese have already been benefiting from the Israel-firsters in America. And so supplying satellite intelligence is a non-kinetic measure with potentially big returns.
PS. One day, the way things are going, probably in our own lifetime the Israel Firsters in America are going to be put in their places like once the mighty KKK was put in their place.

 

[ToddE]

I think you are missing the point. It doesn't matter who ratted him out or whether there was internal collaborators or not. The United States took him out and accepted full responsibility for it. That is escalatory, isn't it? You claimed that both Iran and the US were not escalating. That isn't how things have happened in the last 8 years.

If system was as Staunch anti Israeli/US as it seems then they would have ripped apart JCPOA, NPT right there and would have declared nuclear capability right there but they resorted to striking US bases only. Is that less of a hint that IRI no long is the revolutionary fundamentalist state it used to be? Soleimani's FM called him an extremist, thanks for ignoring it.

So, what's next? You will claim that Israel's attack on Iran and the US strikes on our nuclear facilities were inside jobs too? So, they aren't escalatory?

Attack on nuclear facilities was mutually planned as was Iranian strike on US bases in Iraq and then in Qatar otherwise Trump would not have been asking for the very same half a tonne HEU to be shipped to a 3rd party country that Trump himself, Hegseth, Rubio, Vance, Ratcliffe all claimed to have destroyed/obliterated last year along with cascades of IR-4M/8 that they now are magically claiming to be producing weapons grade uranium. Literally they all said it was all inside the underground storage and we know site has not been touched so what are they asking for now?

Also please clarify me why don't they take out Ayatollah Khamenei himself ? why dont they attack Iranian oil terminals, why not attack reformist politicians or generals that have had dealings with US before? If you know Iranian history, this is not the first time foriegn entities are being used for internal political fighting. I asked you a question before which I will ask again, 112 billion USD worth money came in exports last year against half the imports and expenditures, how did Bank Merkazi got emptied to the point that market hit inflation twice all during reformist government?

Nobody said that the IRI should nuke Washington.
The IRI has every right to take pre-emptive measures because the US president has publicly stated that they're preparing for an attack on Iran. We are basically waiting for the US to make the first move and impose the war on us.

There is no "We" inside Iran. Its a polarized society because government is a revolutionary Islamo-Marxist system that people hate with passion. 47 years have passed, if we filter out the system atleast 70-80% of the politicians including "conservatives" would want the reset.

Remember, Khamenei appointed Larijani as the all in all leader of IRI now, does he seem like a mullah to you ? would this have been possible in 80s or 90s ?

Ukraine has 5% of Iran's military capability? Says who? Based on what? lol

Ukraine has rudimentary strike capability, it has no proper infrastructure to entrench inside dozens underground bases on a territory larger than Europe itself. They have no means of continously striking back deep inside Russian territory at cities, at bases, at infrastructure to actual give socio-economic pain to Russia. They do time to time unsustainable tactics like inside Russia terrorism of targetting some general with assasination or some quadcopter or kamikaze attack but thats now how wars are fought. There is no integrated IADS, no long range EW, no missile cities or aerospace command with thousands of missiles, drones at their disposal. Their naval options are minimal as well, they are not sitting on naval choke points nor do have the means of hurting Russian trade. IRI has a million soldiers at its hand that they can mobilise and have done it before (80s war), Ukraine cant do that, they are resorting to mercenaries and forced military service now. Their war chest is empty, they are relying upon military and war aid that comes from western countries, IRI even after a bloody war is pumping 5+ MBPD. I dont want to remind how much money they recieved in hydrocarbon exports last year after fighting US and Israel. If you cant see beyond all of this just because of our national sports of self-loathing then we are done here.

 

[Aryobarzan]

But the USN will not be part of the surprise attack. They will be completely out of the war initially. The initial phase of the attack will be done by the USAF and the IAF in my scenario.

How do you want to destroy their naval assets when they're out of the range of our AShBMs? Shahed drones? Cruise missiles? A single CSG has 60-70 jet fighters, Aegis, SeaRAM, Phalanx CIWS, etc. Cruise missiles and drones alone will not be able to penetrate all those layers of defense on their own.

I have no idea why you claim Iran's A2/AD range is more than 5,000 KM. Even China doesn't make such claims or maybe I am mistaken or misunderstood you.

As for the US troops in the region, they will be evacuated before shit hits the fan.

Fully agree with your assessment..it is estimated that Tehran will fall to the people within 4 to seven day after the start....will not be surprised to see " nationalist forces trained outside Iran being parashooted some locations close or even inside Tehran....people are being armed as we speak and told to takeover government sites..both domestic and international airports will be taken by ***

I expect new national transition council to announce its existence within first week after the fall of Tehran.