Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Ali_Baba]

Iran must keep "finger on trigger" alert levels at all times. Must remain alert day or night, Sehri or Aftaar timings. If many military personal / leaders get busy during Sahoor or aftaar than its a golden window for americans which they can utilize.

There's no off-ramp here for US now. They will not go without doing any sort of strikes. Strikes could be limited or weeks long that is another debate. But Iran must do all preparations considering worst case scenarios.

Given the nature of "don't attack Iran, Mr President by Generals", it feels like we are days before war, maybe right after the next meeting between the USA and Iran. Everything coming out of Washington should be dismissed as fake.

 

[muhammed45]

Here is a hypothetical but likely scenario for the war, if it happens:

1. The USN will stay way out of the range of Iran's AshBMs initially.
2. The USAF and the IAF will bomb Iranian missile sites and OTH radars in the opening hour of the war aggressively. They will also assassinate top commanders of Iranian forces, particularly the IRGC.
3. After Iran's OTH radars and missile sites have been neutralized, the USN will get close to Iranian shores to strike the remaining targets using cruise missiles, particularly the police, Basij and anti-riot forces.

In the meantime, Kurdish and Baluch separatists will start attacking Iranian border cities while the remaining anti-IR forces in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz and other major cities will attack police stations and strategic targets like the IRIB, the parliament, the airports, etc.

This way the US will incur minimal casualties and Trump will be able to save face by saying that he did take care of Iran's BM threat and helped Iranians.

That scenario was tested and failed already. A scenario like that requires the factor of surprise attack which USN lacks.

All the separatist and terrorist elements hiding behind the scene were brought on screen and most of them are already prisoned or executed.

USA has no way other than backing off or else their naval assets will be badly striken.

Iran's drones are taking care of USN's destroyers deployed to front. They have to protect the hiding carriers and hence vulnerable to Iranian missile attacks.

The forward base ships are carrying 1,500 Km cruise missiles guided by stealth drones plus anti ship ballistic missiles. They can be deployed to 2,000 Km away from Iranian shores.

Iran's A2/AD range is more than 5,000 Km.

Given that USN will be initiator of any possible conflict, they will be pushed back to that distance while their bases in Qatar will be razed to the ground.

They have stationed almost 13 thousand troops at Kuwait base mostly under protected. USA will be paralyzed in the region as the outcome of this conflict.

 

[BonPlan]

On of the things Israel is worried about is the Iraqis and Syrians arming themselves, getting A.D and starting building their Air Force

Indeed.
And as they have a huge air superiority in the region, they will never agree to let any neighbor challenge that.

A sam, a radar, before being operationnal can be destroyed. An air force nees time to be built, and can also be destroyed at the vey beginning.
This is the way israel will follow.

 

[ShapurII]

That scenario was tested and failed already. A scenario like that requires the factor of surprise attack which USN lacks.

All the separatist and terrorist elements hiding behind the scene were brought on screen and most of them are already prisoned or executed.

USA has no way other than backing off or else their naval assets will be badly striken.

Iran's drones are taking care of USN's destroyers deployed to front. They have to protect the hiding carriers and hence vulnerable to Iranian missile attacks.

The forward base ships are carrying 1,500 Km cruise missiles guided by stealth drones plus anti ship ballistic missiles. They can be deployed to 2,000 Km away from Iranian shores.

Iran's A2/AD range is more than 5,000 Km.

Given that USN will be initiator of any possible conflict, they will be pushed back to that distance while their bases in Qatar will be razed to the ground.

They have stationed almost 13 thousand troops at Kuwait base mostly under protected. USA will be paralyzed in the region as the outcome of this conflict.

But the USN will not be part of the surprise attack. They will be completely out of the war initially. The initial phase of the attack will be done by the USAF and the IAF in my scenario.

How do you want to destroy their naval assets when they're out of the range of our AShBMs? Shahed drones? Cruise missiles? A single CSG has 60-70 jet fighters, Aegis, SeaRAM, Phalanx CIWS, etc. Cruise missiles and drones alone will not be able to penetrate all those layers of defense on their own.

I have no idea why you claim Iran's A2/AD range is more than 5,000 KM. Even China doesn't make such claims or maybe I am mistaken or misunderstood you.

As for the US troops in the region, they will be evacuated before shit hits the fan.

 

[BonPlan]

I imagine it is equally difficult for the American fleet to be in those ships for a long time; already some reporting big toilet issues on one air craft carrier.

big issue ? may be not so big.
They have to wait 45 minutes to go to toilet. Not easy, but not impossible to bear.

 

[hussain0216]

Indeed.
And as they have a huge air superiority in the region, they will never agree to let any neighbor challenge that.

A sam, a radar, before being operationnal can be destroyed. An air force nees time to be built, and can also be destroyed at the vey beginning.
This is the way israel will follow.

It's inevitable

Turkey is really starting to stretch itself both militarily and diplomatically

The same as the Arabs

Previously Israel through it's parasitic nature had influence and control of U.S and western politicians (still does) so the flow of weapons could be curtailed

In 2025, things are changing between China and multiple states developing their own weapons, the choices have increased

As Israel repeatedly knocks it's head against irregular militia like Hamas and Hezbollah, others have space

Israels fear is, that it's pariah that's losing support amongst the public in the west amongst all sides right and left

Big powers like Turkey, Saudi/GCC are rising as well making alliances and working together with Pakistan, Egypt, Indonesia etc brining in the smaller Arab states to make an alliance all the while Iran builds up a loaded gun pointed at Israel

At the same time the Jews just burn themselves and become a comic book villain trying to deal with a fast increasing and young Palestinian population



That's why they are trying to Jew the U.S into action NOW because it see's the writing on the wall

 

[Mehdipersian]

Do Iranian missile boats come into equation in this conflict? Iran likely has 100s of missile boats but what's the range of those boats and whats the range of the missiles onboard those boats? If Iran deploy those boats then I assume these should be accompanied by boats for limited air defense (like AA guns, shoulder fired SAMs ) as US can use gunship helis / A-10s against those boats

@Persian Gulf

Missile boats carry missiles ranging from short-range missiles of 10 km to those with a range of 80 km. These are designed for the Persian Gulf, not open waters.

 

[Watandar]

Given the nature of "don't attack Iran, Mr President by Generals", it feels like we are days before war, maybe right after the next meeting between the USA and Iran. Everything coming out of Washington should be dismissed as fake.

I see it as similar to the supposed rift that Netanyahu and Trump had before the July attack, when in reality they had been working hand in hand all along and the US allowed Israel to attack. Now they have replaced Netanyahu with the Joint chiefs chairman in this new drama. An attack is most likely happening, you don't build up forces to this level and give so much support to Monarchist opposition just for negotiations. The question is what kind of attack will it be and what will be the Iranian response.

Still we pray for no war and for a good deal.

 

[muhammed45]

But the USN will not be part of the surprise attack. They will be completely out of the war initially. The initial phase of the attack will be done by the USAF and the IAF in my scenario.

USAF has to use its assets deployed to Jordan and Iraqi airbases. IAF is in range of Iranian missiles such as K-family.

Jordanian airbases will be bombed if they help IAF and USAF in their country. Turkey is an exception, they have announced that they will not allow USAF or IAF to use Incerlik AB. Even if they do so, Incerlik is well within range too.

Iran will sustain damages too, no one denies it. But the army and IRGC will function well due to their preparedness.

How do you want to destroy their naval assets when they're out of the range of our AShBMs? Shahed drones? Cruise missiles? A single CSG has 60-70 jet fighters, Aegis, SeaRAM, Phalanx CIWS, etc. Cruise missiles and drones alone will not be able to penetrate all those layers of defense on their own.

We have already penetrated their so called layers in Yemen. Leave Yemen, this is Iran. We can literally screw USN at sea.

War is not a joke, it will take weeks or even months for us and for them also. The geographical advantage that Iran possesses, will provide Iran with upper hand.

Major problem is their destroyers which will be deployed to the closest borders of the front to protect the carriers. ACs are sitting ducks at sea.

No they won't be evacuated, stop joking

 

[ShapurII]

USAF has to use its assets deployed to Jordan and Iraqi airbases. IAF is in range of Iranian missiles such as K-family.

Jordanian airbases will be bombed if they help IAF and USAF in their country. Turkey is an exception, they have announced that they will not allow USAF or IAF to use Incerlik AB. Even if they do so, Incerlik is well within range too.

Iran will sustain damages too, no one denies it. But the army and IRGC will function well due to their preparedness.

Of course, it is theoretically possible for Iran to attack Jordan, Turkey and Israel. There is no doubt that in theory, that is certainly possible on paper. But how likely is that based on Iran's recent conflict with Israel and past behaviors? Not much in my opinion.

We have already penetrated their so called layers in Yemen. Leave Yemen, this is Iran. We can literally screw USN at sea.

War is not a joke, it will take weeks or even months for us and for them also. The geographical advantage that Iran possesses, will provide Iran with upper hand.

Major problem is their destroyers which will be deployed to the closest borders of the front to protect the carriers. ACs are sitting ducks at sea.

No they won't be evacuated, stop joking

I don't get why the USN shows up in your calculus again. They will be out of the range of our AshBMs and out of the war in initial phase. Let's say they're like 2,500 km away from our shores. How do you want to screw them? What tools do we have at our disposal to target them that far?

By the way, ACs are not sitting ducks. I thought they were sitting ducks too until I was proven wrong by one of the members here; they're impressively agile for their size and enormous weight.

What geographical advantage does Iran have in the Indian Ocean? The US will not have boots on the ground. So, what geographical advantage are we discussing now? Closing the Strait of Hormuz?

 

[muhammed45]

I don't get why the USN shows up in your calculus again. They will be out of the range of our AshBMs and out of the war in initial phase. Let's say they're like 2,500 km away from our shores. How do you want to screw them? What tools do we have at our disposal to target them that far?

Forward base ships capable of firing anti ship ballistic missiles.

فیلم/ «ناو بالستیک‌زن» سپاه را بیشتر بشناسید

www.mashreghnews.ir

Google' Iranian forward base ship firing ballistic missile' in case the link doesn't work. These ships are protected by Soleimani class of air defense capable catamarans. They will deter USN's fighter jets. These FBSh are carrying small boats inside their belly also

By the way, ACs are not sitting ducks. I thought they were sitting ducks too until I was proven wrong by one of the members here; they're impressively agile for their size and enormous weight.

Yes they are capable of super-manuever. But against how many anti ship missiles? The optically guided Qassem-Basir anti ship ballistic missile can manuver before the impact. They are modified versions to attack naval targets.

What geographical advantage does Iran have in the Indian Ocean? The US will not have boots on the ground. So, what geographical advantage are we discussing now? Closing the Strait of Hormuz?

The advantage of approximity to the mainland. It is important at war times.

 

[Falcon29]

Iranian TV: Ground forces of the Revolutionary Guards begin maneuvers in the south of the country

 

[Falcon29]

 

[ShapurII]

Forward base ships capable of firing anti ship ballistic missiles.

فیلم/ «ناو بالستیک‌زن» سپاه را بیشتر بشناسید

www.mashreghnews.ir

Google' Iranian forward base ship firing ballistic missile' in case the link doesn't work. These ships are protected by Soleimani class of air defense capable catamarans. They will deter USN's fighter jets. These FBSh are carrying small boats inside their belly also

I am well aware of the existence of Shahid Mahdavi. It was a commercial vessel that has been converted to be a drone/helicopter carrier.
It is extremely slow, super huge and has extremely limited maneuverability. It's just a huge chunk of metal with just 4 Navvab missiles + a gun and no long-range air defense. If you want to use the word sitting duck in war, this is the real one.

Yes they are capable of super-manuever. But against how many anti ship missiles? The optically guided Qassem-Basir anti ship ballistic missile can manuver before the impact. They are modified versions to attack naval targets.

But what anti-ship missiles can reach 2,500 km?
Qassem-Basir has a range of 1,200 km (I thought it was 1,500 km but I double-checked it on Wikipedia and it says 1,200 km). Also, it is slow in terminal phase.

The advantage of approximity to the mainland. It is important at war times.

But the USN will not approach Iranian shores before it has suppressed our littoral assets. And it will not get that close anyway. Only close enough to launch Tomahawk missiles.

 

[muhammed45]

Sayyad-3G being fired from a naval platform. According to American F-16 pilot, it has an speed of almost 5 Mach and 150 Km range.