Arabic Coffee shop

[_Arabia_]

I didn't comment about where-you-might-be-right-or-wrong. I tagged you because I'm interested in your opinion of the tweeted statement: one, whether you think it's genuine, and two, what your opinion is of the vision it presents for a future Iran.

I am more interested in your reply to what I wrote. I suggest you read my post again and take your time to reply. I am sure I am not the only one that would be interested in your reply given that you are the only Jewish voice on this forum. I am of course unable to force you to make a reply but I recall trying to start similar discussions in the past to no avail. This is quite sad as without dialogue we are going nowhere.

We don't have to agree at all, like we will not, but the discussion by itself should be seen as something positive.

If you insist, once again, it is not for me to decide what a future Iran should look like. However it is unnecessary to mention that it speaks volume that the most educated class among the Iranians are even thinking about such initiatives. That should give people a clue about how much disliked the current Iranian regime is. You don't need this news to confirm this, you can just take a look at recent events in Iran back in January.

Anyway, I will have to depart for a while. Obligations.

 

[جوبا]

what is with all the insults on this thread
we come onto this forum to LARP as wanna be defence analysts not for some jahhiliya period insults

 

[جوبا]

KSA is already winning the most out of this conflict - oil revenues are going to spike and at the same time regional adversaries like the Houthis and UAE have been degraded.
Most OPEC+ members are suffering from interrupted oil supplies while KSA has the Red Sea to supply from

 

[_Arabia_]

View attachment 182646
KSA is already winning the most out of this conflict - oil revenues are going to spike and at the same time regional adversaries like the Houthis and UAE have been degraded.
Most OPEC+ members are suffering from interrupted oil supplies while KSA has the Red Sea to supply from

Well, that might be the case, but unfortunately or fortunately, KSA is not some isolated island in the region but deeply interconnected with practically all parts of the neighborhood. Aside from being the by far largest country in the region that practically borders every major country or is located just next door.

Recent developments are not beneficial in any way which is why KSA was always against this nonsense war/conflict.

However you have valid and correct point.

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[Serendipity]

There is some chatter on Twitter that Paksitan warned Iran that excessive attacks on KSA would invoke the defence pact. Is this true?

I was also right about my suspicion of UAE being the biggest target not Israel. Still trying to figure out why. Maybe the cheaper short range missiles have it in striking range so its an easier strategic option :

12:39 AM
UAE says subject to over 1,000 Iranian attacks, higher than total of all other targeted nations
In a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the UAE said that the country "has been subjected to more than a thousand attacks, a number exceeding the combined total of attacks suffered by all other targeted countries, and our armed forces have responded to these attacks with utmost professionalism, efficiency, and distinction."

 

[_Arabia_]

There is a lot of propaganda currently being posted by pro-Iranian regime accounts. In reality they are getting pummeled heavily. Which the 1000's of videos and satellite footage clearly confirms.

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Looks like another calm day in KSA.

Anyway the worst case scenario for the small GCC states is relatively mild. Further degraded oil and gas infrastructure (which can and will be rebuilt) and some additional material damage.

China as well as the US (whose economy in many ways is reliant on the petrodollar) will never allow any long-term disruptions of energy in the region or any closure of any waters. This was clearly confirmed by Trump's statement today.

Iran's frequency of ballistic missiles used is already severely decreasing after just 4 days. This will only continue as the USAF and IDF have a free reign over the sky of Iran and they continue to destroy missile launchers and ballistic missile bases.

An example of this:

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Ballistic missile and drones alone cannot win any wars let alone any large battle. Look at Ukraine and Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities. They have been targeted daily by far, far greater attacks yet they are still standing. Despite many of the missiles and drones not being intercepted. Have no illusions, the scale of Russian production of both missiles and drones is infinitely greater than that of Iran - let alone an Iran that is daily and hourly carpet bombed.

 

[جوبا]

There is some chatter on Twitter that Paksitan warned Iran that excessive attacks on KSA would invoke the defence pact. Is this true?

Yes

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A diplomatic way of saying **** around and find out FAFO

 

[_Arabia_]

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Extremely worrying for the Iranian regime if those numbers are accurate:

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[جوبا]

Well, that might be the case, but unfortunately or fortunately, KSA is not some isolated island in the region but deeply interconnected with practically all parts of the neighborhood. Aside from being the by far largest country in the region that practically borders every major country or is located just next door.

Recent developments are not beneficial in any way which is why KSA was always against this nonsense war/conflict.

However you have valid and correct point.

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Forget politics tell me have you been to yanbu Alnakhl?
beautiful quaint little town

 

[_Arabia_]

Forget politics tell me have you been to yanbu Alnakhl?
beautiful quaint little town

Yes, I used to dip my feet as a child in those waters. Later we became more daring and started swimming a bit but never very far from the coastline. The Red Sea is infested with sharks.

In recent years, I believe it is ongoing as I saw this in person 1 year ago, they are restoring a lot of the abandoned and old houses and quarters. From what I saw they did a very good job of restoring it in traditional local Hejazi architecture. Sadly a lot of it has also been lost and erased (many, many decades ago) in the name of modernity. However in the past 10 years KSA has done a really excellent job at restoring a lot of old buildings and heritage in general across the entire country.

Not that far (in KSA terms ) from Yanbu you have Umluj and some of the almost 2000 Saudi Arabian islands in the Red Sea (volcanic, tropical, desert). As well as many of the new island resorts etc.

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In general there are a lot of charming small sleepy Hejazi coastal towns that you never hear about mostly. Many of them have retained their traditional architecture and are very traditional. Much like southern Hejaz and Southern KSA which is a time lapse in terms of architecture much like next door Yemen is.

 

[_Arabia_]

Example of some of the restoration work in Yanbu (they are far from done from what I recall):




compared to:









Many more photos but we are limited to 5 per post. The old town is 2500 years old.

What is amazing is that a lot of the building material is made up of coral reef. As you might know - the Red Sea is home to the world's second largest coral reef and the only one that is not diminishing in size but actually growing. In particular the part in northwestern KSA. I remember reading some scientific paper about this phenomenon where it was stated that the coral reefs and fauna have developed a specific microclimate and in general being extremely adaptive to changes in sea temperature.

There is some chatter on Twitter that Paksitan warned Iran that excessive attacks on KSA would invoke the defence pact. Is this true?

I was also right about my suspicion of UAE being the biggest target not Israel. Still trying to figure out why. Maybe the cheaper short range missiles have it in striking range so its an easier strategic option :

12:39 AM
UAE says subject to over 1,000 Iranian attacks, higher than total of all other targeted nations
In a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the UAE said that the country "has been subjected to more than a thousand attacks, a number exceeding the combined total of attacks suffered by all other targeted countries, and our armed forces have responded to these attacks with utmost professionalism, efficiency, and distinction."

Could have played a role indeed but KSA is a military regional power on its own. We have the most powerful air force in the region after the Israeli one. Same with our ballistic missile forces. As well as the number of drones - local as well as foreign. Not relevant to talk about the land forces etc. here in this context.

I am 100% sure that KSA leadership made it very clear to Iran that any large scale attacks or continued attacks (KSA has barely been targeted and the few targets have come from Iraqi militias according to most reliable reports) will not be tolerated and subject to a military reply - something that Iran cannot afford that much right now and would probably prefer not to occur, lol. But even despite that you have Saudi officials and independent journalists openly talking about the possibility of a direct reply.

KSA has all the cards as we can wait. The situation in Iran is only going to get worse by each day. Of course as long as status quo remains in place which has been the case for over 4 days now. If the Iranian regime goes full retard and say suddenly starts attacking the oil and gas sectors heavily or civilian areas or cities - we would have to reply and ideally in a fierce and decisive manner.

 

[Falcon29]

Yes, I used to dip my feet as a child in those waters. Later we became more daring and started swimming a bit but never very far from the coastline. The Red Sea is infested with sharks.

In recent years, I believe it is ongoing as I saw this in person 1 year ago, they are restoring a lot of the abandoned and old houses and quarters. From what I saw they did a very good job of restoring it in traditional local Hejazi architecture. Sadly a lot of it has also been lost and erased (many, many decades ago) in the name of modernity. However in the past 10 years KSA has done a really excellent job at restoring a lot of old buildings and heritage in general across the entire country.

Not that far (in KSA terms ) from Yanbu you have Umluj and some of the almost 2000 Saudi Arabian islands in the Red Sea (volcanic, tropical, desert). As well as many of the new island resorts etc.

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In general there are a lot of charming small sleepy Hejazi coastal towns that you never hear about mostly. Many of them have retained their traditional architecture and are very traditional. Much like southern Hejaz and Southern KSA which is a time lapse in terms of architecture much like next door Yemen is.

I wish I had the money to be able to vacation around the world. Travel is truly a pleasure once you get older. Didn't care to in my teens but as I'm getting older I really desire for it

Any good Instagram pages to follow for Arab vacation destinations? I would think it's not that costly and I'd love to explore Arab world.

 

[جوبا]

Yes, I used to dip my feet as a child in those waters. Later we became more daring and started swimming a bit but never very far from the coastline. The Red Sea is infested with sharks.

In recent years, I believe it is ongoing as I saw this in person 1 year ago, they are restoring a lot of the abandoned and old houses and quarters. From what I saw they did a very good job of restoring it in traditional local Hejazi architecture. Sadly a lot of it has also been lost and erased (many, many decades ago) in the name of modernity. However in the past 10 years KSA has done a really excellent job at restoring a lot of old buildings and heritage in general across the entire country.

Not that far (in KSA terms ) from Yanbu you have Umluj and some of the almost 2000 Saudi Arabian islands in the Red Sea (volcanic, tropical, desert). As well as many of the new island resorts etc.

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In general there are a lot of charming small sleepy Hejazi coastal towns that you never hear about mostly. Many of them have retained their traditional architecture and are very traditional. Much like southern Hejaz and Southern KSA which is a time lapse in terms of architecture much like next door Yemen is.

Family has been bugging me since a long time to visit Umluj- but I was always hesitant to go to a recently developed site and get stuck with no hotels.
Btw Yanbu AlBahr is now expanded so much especially the industrial area so you don’t have the same swimming experiences anymore unfortunately if you are coming from Yanbu AlNakhl

 

[Eşbah]

As I wrote from the very beginning there is no way that the Iranian regime can win any battle let alone the wider war/conflict.

They don't want to win; they want to survive and so far the Iranian regime is quite successful.

 

[جوبا]

Personally I would love to visit Syria again. I was there 100 years ago (15-20 years ago as a small child). Revisit and explore more of Damascus, Palmyra, Homs, coastal areas etc. Could be combined with a visit next door to Jordan which is also very underrated in terms of heritage sites. A lot to offer for such a small country in this regard.

Oh man I have been waiting since 2024 for stuff to finally settle down so I can visit the historic sites in Palmyra- it would make for the perfect roadtrip from KSA through Amman on to old Damishq