EugeneP
Trusted Member
Generally true, but I see some differences.The situation is unfolding as expected.
I believed the USAF and IDF would wait until Iran's missiles were sufficiently depleted before launching attacks on oil infrastructure.
Once Iran's retaliatory capabilities are neutralized, it will be unable to strike back at Arab oil fields or Israeli refineries.
The US will observe Iran's depletion and declining morale, then gradually expand bombing of civilian infrastructure, destroying oil fields and power plants to send Iran back to the Middle Ages.
The concept of controlling escalation absolutely cannot work against the USAF, supported by a global supply network and capable of projecting virtually unlimited ammunition.
Iran has devised a completely flawed strategy based on the illusion that the enemy's ammunition will eventually run out.
Aggression will not cease unless attacks inflict pain on the enemy and cause human casualties.
Controlling escalation is only possible when there is a balance of power between the two sides. Iran is currently fighting alone against the industrial might of the entire planet; balance is impossible. Therefore, under its current strategy, being forced into unconditional surrender is only a matter of time.
1. I think they focused a lot on eliminating the leadership. Now, it seems it was a good decision, as Iran is fighting the war autonomously without leadership, making it less effective.
2. First few days, the focus was on eliminating missile & drone capacity. They seem to have achieved it as the reports of missile and drone intensity suggest it has come down from day 1.
3. They are focusing now on energy and infrastructure. That should reduce missile and drone capabilities.
4. But I don't think there will be an unconditional surrender or need for it. If the missile and drone capabilities are gone, there is no sense in continuing the war. Trump will be eager to declare victory and go home. He likes quick wins.








