Variants of that sentence are playing on repeat mode in mind day and night ever since I saw how powerless the country was when the very first plumes of smokes appeared over Tehran at Zero Hour. I will never forget the sorrow and shock I had for my fellow Iranians in the country. Never. I saw it live, upon waking up to that nightmare and having a dozen missed called and even more message from panicked friends...
Let us hope things can evolve post war in a way that prevents a least a part of the gross, terrifying mistakes when it came to procurement guidelines and doctrines, mismanagement and misallocation of funds, and ultimately mass production can be attained, rerouted and properly undertaken.
TLDR , assuming this mayhem stops in a couple days(far from certain considering the US can sit this out and "leave it to Bibi" like it's written verbatim in the Pentagon's 2012 policy paper) which it seems to be :
-The navy can wait for years, even though their loss is painful to watch, those ships bar maybe the Dena and the Soleimani class, where already useless for modern warfare, let's face it, and were diverting way too much ressources and funds with regards to their actual value in theater.
-Ground forces seems to have absorbed the shock for the most part as well, and not the prime targets AFAIK.
-Missiles and drone infrastructure have most of their R&D + production chains under thick rock and/or reactive concrete so i'm not (too) worried, timelines could be in the 2-3 year range, if the June war can be an indicator from which we infer that way more intense war.
But Iran must initiate a major industrial effort both through joint cooperation deals particularly with China from which most of its best system take their roots, *and* go after major extensions to their existing manufacturing capabilities and lines for their own air defense tech. The 100% self-reliance goal cannot be realistically attained for a few years of recovery to come, and be a priority, quite unfortunately. Iran must go after ToT to exponentially incrase its own homegrown capabilities. It's a quarter mile until they're here, really...
- lots of loud barks but no effectiveness against enemies with solid military capabilities. I have no idea what purpose the Israeli airforce attacks actually serve- its almost the predictor that israel will lose a war.
