so you probably think Iran was able to clog toilets on the USS Ford as well? At this point you guys are cling on to fantasies. The only trump card Iran has is blockade of the strait. Missile / drone strikes aren't really discouraging attacks against Iran.
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
so you probably think Iran was able to clog toilets on the USS Ford as well? At this point you guys are cling on to fantasies. The only trump card Iran has is blockade of the strait. Missile / drone strikes aren't really discouraging attacks against Iran.
RescueRanger
Meme Lord
As the article is subject to copyright always add a track back link please. The forum has been in trouble before by other magazines when members copy and paste from mags.A great article by the Economist on Trumpster's plans to get tankers going via Strait of Hormuz
Can America clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iran’s drones and mines?
Escorting convoys of oil tanker with warships may give Iran juicy American targets
THE STRAIT of Hormuz is tricky for mariners at the best of times—narrow, shallow, congested and often hazy with humidity and dust. In times of conflict, it is a potential death-trap, overlooked by barren mountains and bereft of reliable navigational aids. Tankers carrying oil, refined fuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have all but stopped sailing through the passage since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the American and Israeli air war against Iran, brought a shuddering energy shock. Amid reports that Iran is preparing to mine the strait, can America clear the waterway by military force?
Donald Trump, the American president, has repeatedly threatened to escalate the war if Iran blocked the flow of oil. American forces have already sunk much of Iran’s navy, are trying to destroy the weaponry that could threaten shipping and on March 10th declared that the bombing would intensify. Mr Trump did not confirm reporting by CBS News and CNN that Iran was preparing to lay mines, or had started to do so, using small boats. But he warned Iran in a social-media post: “If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.” The Pentagon claims that 16 mine-laying boats in the Strait have been “eliminated”.
The president has also promised to support ship-owners, both by helping to bring down insurance costs and proposing military escorts for tanker convoys. This is an echo of Operation Earnest Will in the 1980s, at the height of the Iran-Iraq war, when America reflagged Kuwaiti tankers and protected them in transit. On March 10th the American energy secretary, Chris Wright, posted and promptly deleted a message on social media claiming that a US warship had escorted a tanker. Meanwhile, European countries and Pakistan are also talking of sending escorts.
More than a quarter of global seaborne oil exports pass through the waterway. Unlike the Suez Canal, which has also been heavily disrupted by conflict, ships transporting fuel from the Gulf cannot avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Laden tankers are thus bunching up on the western side of the strait; empty ones on the east.
Chart: The Economist
In the month leading up to the start of the war on February 28th, an average of 46 tankers sailed through the passage every day, according to data from Vortexa, a market-intelligence firm. Since then only a brave handful—five or fewer a day—have run the gauntlet, hoping the profits will justify the risk. China is reported to be trying to negotiate safe passage for its ships, so far to little avail.
The threat from Iran, which has long prepared for such strife, comes in many forms. In the air, it can use ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones. On the sea it has fast-attack boats armed with missiles, explosives or rocket-propelled grenades. Under the waves, it can deploy thousands of sea mines and unmanned vehicles, not to mention divers who can place limpet mines on ships at anchor. How much of this has been destroyed is unclear. Several ships have already been attacked, though the circumstances are not always clear.
Mr Trump has urged ship owners to “show some guts”. But American warships also seem wary. The protected convoys have yet to be formed. “The one thing I wouldn’t do right now is do a convoy until the conditions are set,” says Mark Montgomery, a former American rear-admiral now at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a hawkish think-tank in Washington, DC. American forces have not yet reduced Iran’s capabilities to the point at which escorts can deal with remaining threats. In any case, he adds, American destroyers used for air defence are mostly busy protecting aircraft-carriers in the region. If convoys materialise, says Mr Montgomery, they will involve constant surveillance, war planes and armed helicopters overhead, and escorts by newly deployed destroyers. It will not be easy, or cheap.
During the Gaza war the Houthis, a militia in Yemen allied to Iran, stopped much of the sea traffic in the Red Sea and Suez Canal by threatening ships in the Bab al-Mandab strait with fairly cheap drones and missiles. America struggled last year to destroy their forces and reopen the strait, losing an aircraft that fell off a carrier as it dodged Houthi attacks. It ended with a partial ceasefire. Traffic has yet to return to pre-crisis levels, and the Houthis have vowed to resume attacks in solidarity with Iran.
Maritime chokepoints favour the defender. In the past American commanders have said they would be able to reopen the strait within days or weeks, were Iran to attempt to close it. But experts point to the cautionary tale of Britain’s failed campaign in the first world war to force open the Dardanelles, part of the passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Ottoman forces had laid down complex defences consisting of mines, fortresses and mobile artillery. The allies lost several ships trying to fight their way through from the sea. The Gallipoli landings to seize the passage by land turned into an even bloodier debacle.
Iran, though pummelled from the air, also enjoys layered defences and forbidding terrain in the Strait of Hormuz, notes Jonathan Schroden of the Centre for Naval Analyses, another American think-tank. “You have to peel the layers of the onion,” he says. “If Iran were to mine the straits you would first have to tackle the missiles and the drones and the fast boats before you would go after the mines.” And today, as in 1915, minesweepers are poorly protected and would struggle to operate under fire. America is replacing wooden-hulled minesweepers with littoral-combat ships carrying mine-warfare “packages”, including unmanned drones, though some worry the concept is untested.
In the Dardanelles as in the Strait of Hormuz, notes Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, geography allows the defender to draw enemy vessels close to its shores, where they can more easily be attacked. “Some of the weapons have changed—I am more worried about projectiles than mines—but the concept has not changed,” she says.
America’s technological advantages are blunted in confined waters. Drones and missiles take less time to reach their targets, for instance. Moreover, warships are in some ways more vulnerable to damage than larger tankers. Unlike modern oil tankers, destroyers have single hulls, so are easier to sink; and their superstructure carries expensive equipment, such as air-defence radars. In the 1980s, escort ships typically sailed behind tankers, not in front of them, to avoid being damaged by mines.
A big difference with Operation Earnest Will, says Professor Talmadge, is that in the 1980s Iran was seeking to avoid all-out war with America at sea, despite various clashes, as it struggled to hold back Iraqi forces on land. “The idea that Iran will be restrained because of fear of escalation seems fanciful,” she argues, “It’s already engaged in an existential war for regime survival.”
Alarmed about the economic and financial impact of the oil crisis, Mr Trump has in recent days mixed words of reassurance with his threats. He announced on March 9th that the conflict will stop “very soon”. That soothed markets for a time. But having survived the American-Israeli onslaught, the remnants of the clerical regime seem determined to set the terms for how the war ends. If it has mined the Strait of Hormuz, Mr Trump may find it impossible to declare victory quickly. ■
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
UKBengali
Elite Member
They cannot stop attacks but are limiting the “target. bank”.
Iran threatened to take out electricity infrastructure in ME if its own electricity infrastructure was hit.
There is a good reason that Zio-US does not hit Iranian power stations like it did to Iraq in GW1.
Yes and Iran will also take out Zionist power stations in Palestine as it will focus all missiles on those large targets and forget strikes on Tel Aviv.
TallGuy
Registered Member
@Persian Gulf @RescueRanger
In DRCONGO, Kinshasa - bureau of Speculation department is ripe with news that "Israel PM no more with brother, 02 sons and wife"
did you hear anything?
In DRCONGO, Kinshasa - bureau of Speculation department is ripe with news that "Israel PM no more with brother, 02 sons and wife"
did you hear anything?
Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
RescueRanger
Meme Lord
SteppeWolff
Trusted Member
That cannot happen in a scenario where America dangles the carrot and beats you with the stick. Their guarantees are useless. Theyll just use that time to regroup and attack again.
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
What Iran needs is a permanent end to the war, not another ceasefire and Irans wants all of USA allies to "pressure the USA".
India is one of the pressure points, given the degree of American investments in India that would be negatively affected by this.
It is therefore in Iran's interests to pressure India, as Iran is with the PGCCC.
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
RescueRanger
Meme Lord
Oh it's finally being also reported in the media now:
Iran appears to have conducted a significant cyberattack against a U.S. company, a first since the war started
The company, Stryker, said a cyberattack disrupted its “Microsoft environment.”
www.nbcnews.com
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
Iran attack - Taliban, Modi, and Netanyahu on One Page
>> Interesting video of the role of the Taliban on the war in Iran and balkanisation plans for Iran. Looks like Pakistan has taken "care" one of the elements of Modi's / Netanyahu's plans off the table.
>> Interesting video of the role of the Taliban on the war in Iran and balkanisation plans for Iran. Looks like Pakistan has taken "care" one of the elements of Modi's / Netanyahu's plans off the table.
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