Operation Ghazab Lil Haq (Pakistan - Afghanistan War)

On the topic of a potential seizure of the Wakhan corridor PA has done large scale airborne operations with helicopters before in 2009, the Taliban are probably far less entrenched in Wakhan then the TTP were in buner back in 2009.

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side-winder said:
Lol 😂
Not so graveyard of empires - eh?

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Side note: Khalilzad looks to be going the way of Palpatine when he was rapidly drained of his powers in Revenge of the Sith.

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Hopefully Pessimistic said:
@side-winder Give us some new khabar brother, are we heading towards ceasefire like some rumours or increased ops tempo?
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I don't think we are heading towards a ceasefire - but can't say when we strike next - the ATOs are directly sent to flying sqns.
 
side-winder said:
I don't think we are heading towards a ceasefire - but can't say when we strike next - the ATOs are directly sent to flying sqns.
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I see, the Khorosan diary and some Afghans are saying private de-escalation was held in the background to attempt a permanent ceasefire using some senior clerics. A few politicians have also called for it.

I guess we'll find out soon enough if true because there are conflicting reports, like last night drones were loitering. And rumours of meetings with Northern community figures.
 
Wonder what the next phase of this war/conflict will look like, maybe gather intelligence and start to take out Taliban leadership ?
 
Signs of a ceasefire?

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Starlord said:
Wonder what the next phase of this war/conflict will look like, maybe gather intelligence and start to take out Taliban leadership ?
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Best case (good): Hopefully the TTP attacks will stop/drastically reduce (a drop of 95% or greater). What will also be important is to see Taliban as doing their level-best to clamp down on both TTP and even BLA within their borders (which can only be happen if their benefactors in Qatar, KSA and Turkey prevail). This could lead to full restoration of diplomatic/economic ties.
Probability: 20%

Medium case (poor): The current situation will be prolonged after the lull and the Taliban will continue to use their proxies to attack Pakistan albeit with lesser frequency and with greater plausible deniability so they can avoid further kinetic punishment from Pakistan. The two countries will remain in a Cold War of sorts if this continues. Pakistan could selectively target some leaders and centers of gravity of the Taliban.
Probability: 70%

Worst case (abysmal): The Taliban pick it up where they left off after things have cooled down in the Gulf and go back to sending large TTP/Afghan/BLA tashkeels back into Pakistan to cause mayhem. Pakistan will hit back hard given the new norm set up incase of any such ingresses and attacks/ambushes/bombings etc. If this persists, your recommendation would apply fully along with a potential attempt to change the Afghan regime.
Probability: 10% (this because Taliban know that they will be the ones suffering more and could potentially be pushed out of power).
 
Blain2 said:
Best case (good): Hopefully the TTP attacks will stop/drastically reduce (a drop of 95% or greater). What will also be important is to see Taliban as doing their level-best to clamp down on both TTP and even BLA within their borders (which can only be happen if their benefactors in Qatar, KSA and Turkey prevail). This could lead to full restoration of diplomatic/economic ties.

Medium case (poor): The current situation will be prolong after the lull and the Taliban will continue to use their proxies to attack Pakistan albeit with lesser frequency and with greater plausible deniability so they can avoid the kinetic punishment from Pakistan. The two countries will remain in a Cold War of sorts if this continues. Pakistan could selectively target some leaders and centers of gravity of the Taliban.

Worst case (abysmal): The Taliban pick it up where they left off after things have cooled down in the Gulf and go back to sending large TTP/Afghan/BLA tashkeels back into Pakistan to cause mayhem. Pakistan will hit back hard given the new norm set up incase of any such ingresses and attacks/ambushes/bombings etc. If this persists, your recommendation would apply fully along with a potential attempt to change the Afghan regime.
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With issues like Durand line and Taliban Rhetoric to take back territory up to Attock we can't have a lasting peace with them, remember that whole TTP fighting for Shariah is a sham and supported/funded by India, because if Shariah is so much desirable for the TTP then they will live in Afghanistan happily as it is in the heads a "Islamic Emirate" you wanted a Shariah ruled country, there you have it and now live there in peace? why it is so important to bring Shariah into Pakistan, when Islam doesn't even recognize the Border states? so Pakistan or Afghanistan you have Shariah and freedom to practice your faith the way you wanted, its like When Rasool Allah was driven from Mecca he made a peaceful life for his followers in Medina, he wasn't sending Raids on Mecca, until Meccan's decided to attack/steal the properties of Muslims first, TTP is the attack dog of Afghan Taliban where Shariah is the cover for the ethnic BS of Pushtoonistan or Greater Afghanistan or whatever they wanna call it, I don't see a lasting peace between the two countries, Afghans are guns for hire and they have no industry or economy, sooner or later the warlords will be selling suicide bombers in a market for highest bidders.
 
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