Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

Trump seems open to his version of a 'regime change' (option 3). But I don't think the current hardliners are open to it.

You know the uranium metal facilities are destroyed. The enemy has air superiority and is watching Esfahan very closely. Any attempt to access the HEU will be detected, and there is not much we can do with it anyway since our main facilities were destroyed. We can always hope there are some undetected sites where our scientists are working in secret, but it seems unlikely.

That HEU and the Strait of Hormuz are our best/only leverage to end this war.

Trump is not the only factor here. He could leave the office as early as 9 months later, if not 3 years later. Israel is not going to accept an Islamic Iran that its core ideology is based on anti-Israel sentiments.

Yes, and we cannot afford to give our last remaining leverages.

There is always the option of buying nukes from North Korea. That's what I meant by comrade Kim helping us out of this situation. Well, not in the middle of a war where the enemy fully dominates our air space, but it is certainly possible. Particularly if China allows this to happen.

 

[Immortals]

we are not using the HEU anyway. the point of leverage like the HEU is to know when to use it to extract concessions that we want. there are some options:

(1) total resistance - fight war as long as possible, and try to develop nukes. suffer massive damage, with no clear end path, unless nukes are somehow developed or the global economic situation deteriorates so the US is forced to offer favourable terms to Iran

(2) accept weak ceasefire and return to status quo - weak and vulnerable without funds to redevelop as US economic war continues and Israel returns to 'mow the lawn' again in 6-12 months

(3) make major compromises to change nature of relationship with the US, give up nuclear program, make missile compromises, and get significant sanctions relief

2 is probably the most likely.

Terrible short sighted analysis

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

53 operations for Hezbollah today!!

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[Gryzor]

Brilliant assessment.
I could be wrong, but Iran received the PMU-2 variant of S-300 with some modifications. S-300VM also offers some anti-ballistic capabilities that Iran clearly lacked.

I think this war should end either by capitulation or a long-term settlement between us and the US. Anything else in between is disaster for Iran and Iranians.

Thanks mate, you do very well yourself, I've been following that community in read-only without an account since the IMF days, and only recently joined

And yeah in theory the VM was not bad... but I doubt it"s the type that was transfered to begin with, or it was already compromised before the transfer, those are sadly legitimate questions when it comes to Russia within an Israeli scope.

Yeah we align on the outcome. There's not going to be intermediate states, it's either all or nothing from now on...

 

[Persian Gulf]

Trump is not the only factor here. He could leave the office as early as 9 months later, if not 3 years later. Israel is not going to accept an Islamic Iran that its core ideology is based on anti-Israel sentiments.

Yes, and we cannot afford to give our last remaining leverages.

There is always the option of buying nukes from North Korea. That's what I meant by comrade Kim helping us out of this situation. Well, not in the middle of a war where the enemy fully dominates our air space, but it is certainly possible. Particularly if China allows this to happen.

The best case is to continuously maintain attacks on regional oil/gas infrastructure, including in Israel, to increase oil prices. We have stopped doing that. It's better that we do this quickly rather than slowly, so the we get to the end of the war faster and take less damage.

For the third scenario, Iran can agree to an informal detente with Israel without formal recognition. We have to use the leverage to extract concessions, not just for the sake of having leverage, which is useless if it is not used.

Buying nukes from NK is fantasy stuff. The US would interdict that in the seas. At best they can help us build more underground facilities. Bibi was scared that Iran was building new nuclear/missile facilities deep underground that he could not destroy. The path was correct. But the enemy will not wait for us to complete the path.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

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another projectile hit near Bushehr power plant

The International Atomic Energy Agency announced: Iran has informed us that another projectile has fallen around the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

According to the agency, Iran emphasized that there was no damage to this power plant and none of the employees were injured.

@TasnimNews

 

[Persian Gulf]

Terrible short sighted analysis

well considering I outlined three very wide ranging scenarios, that's a rather meaningless non substantive response.

 

[Garcia Sea]

The problem with that deal is that Iran's obligations under the deal are permanent and non-reversible while the US concessions are easily reversible with a stroke of a pen.

If we give up our HEU, not only there will never be sanctions relief or compensations, but they will try their regime change plans more eagerly than before.

All the wise people are aware of this and are abandoning the ayatollahs who cling to negotiations with the United States.
Unfortunately, Iran's leadership lacks both the strategy and the will to defend the country, and its downfall is inevitable, whether in months or years.
There is little chance of a wise, patriotic leader seizing power, because such a person would be the first to be assassinated.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

No, Saudi and UAE are definitely involved.

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Saudi source: Saudi Arabia does not want to prolong the war with Iran

An official Saudi source told Al Arabiya: "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has previously denied the claims that the country's leadership wants to prolong the war with Iran ."

@TasnimNews

 

[Garcia Sea]

Alright, let me clarify.

He is just a knesset member; he does not represent Israel's military or economic value, so he is a low-value target srategically. Furthermore, if he remains alive, he will continue to make genocidal remarks, which can help Iran gain more political correctness and international support. His existence can also uningry Iranian people and secure their support for the war.

If you kill him with a missile, you will waste a missile and gain nothing more than some venting of anger from people. Some Iranians might be satisfied by this and turn to supporting a ceasefire and negotiations. Moreover, you have not damaged Israel's core interests, and killing a legislator will not affect teasefire and negotiations. Therefore, choosing this target will undoubtedly lead other countries to doubt Iran's resolve to resist aggression.

You still do not understand; if you wish to defeat the United States and Israel, or to achieve victory at a lower cost, you need aid and support. And if you want to receive aid and support, you must prove your determination. No country wants to invest in or help a regime that is ready to give up and surrender at any moment. If the whole world perceives that you will abandon resistance and surrender, those nations originally inclined to support Iran will likely switch to support the United States and Israel for their own interests, joining the aggressors to plunder and divide your wealth. A true diplomatic victory lies in proving your resolve through action, rather than always leaving room for surrender.

I can say with certainty that if Iran resists firmly, Arab countries and Pakistan are very likely to remain neutral, or even provide covert assistance. Howeversoon as Iran shows signs of surrender and capitulation, these countries will inevitably join the camp of the United States and Israel.

What you're saying is absolutely correct.
However, unfortunately, those words won't reach the people of the Middle East who have become accustomed to subservience to the United States.
Even in this forum, there are a large number of people who are calling for concessions to the US and for peace. Sadly, the Middle East will forever remain a playground for American politicians, constantly being bombed.

 

[Immortals]

well considering I outlined three very wide ranging scenarios, that's a rather meaningless non substantive response.

Iran is going nuclear. In the off chance it doesn’t it’s not giving its HEU out of the country. Your defeatist scenarios don’t reflect the new reality which is Iran is 2-3 weeks away from crushing the world economy.

As Argachi told Witkoff in negotiations, “we won’t give you what you couldn’t take in war”.

Also your debating with a user who before the war said Reza Pahlavi is gonna be King and Iranians will rush to welcome him in the streets.

 

[ShapurII]

The best case is to continuously maintain attacks on regional oil/gas infrastructure, including in Israel, to increase oil prices. We have stopped doing that. It's better that we do this quickly rather than slowly, so the we get to the end of the war faster and take less damage.

For the third scenario, Iran can agree to an informal detente with Israel without formal recognition. We have to use the leverage to extract concessions, not just for the sake of having leverage, which is useless if it is not used.

Buying nukes from NK is fantasy stuff. The US would interdict that in the seas. At best they can help us build more underground facilities. Bibi was scared that Iran was building new nuclear/missile facilities deep underground that he could not destroy. The path was correct. But the enemy will not wait for us to complete the path.

But they can target our oil/gas infrastructure in return. We still have Bab El-Mendeb left but I don't think we would play that card anytime soon. It's probably reserved for when the conflict grows larger and other countries like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates join in.

The US and their allies have not released all of their strategic oil reserves yet. They can control the oil price for a couple of weeks. The question is, does Iran have that much time left?

Israel sees the entirety of the IRGC as an existential threat. As long as the IRGC exists, Israel will not accept to coexist with Iran, unless it is forced to do so. So, that option is only possible if the IRGC gets dismantled and that seems impossible because at this point, the regime is technically the IRGC.

At this moment, yes. However, once the war ends and the situation returns to normal, it is possible. Not all components would be sent at once, of course.

 

[Immortals]

So, that option is only possible if the IRGC gets dismantled and that seems impossible because at this point, the regime is technically the IRGC.

I told you it was impossible many times before the war. PhD war veteran technocrats now control Iran and Sepah controls 40% of a 92M population economy.

But you clung to your Pahlavi fantasies (no offense) and spouted nonsense.

At least you weren’t as bad as @Aryobarzan
Who said Tehran will fall in one week. Jesus Christ.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran is going nuclear. In the off chance it doesn’t it’s not giving its HEU out of the country. Your defeatist scenarios don’t reflect the new reality which is Iran is 2-3 weeks away from crushing the world economy.

As Argachi told Witkoff in negotiations, “we won’t give you what you couldn’t take in war”.

Also your debating with a user who before the war said Reza Pahlavi is gonna be King and Iranians will rush to welcome him in the streets.

scenario 1 accounts for that: "unless nukes are somehow developed or the global economic situation deteriorates so the US is forced to offer favourable terms to Iran"

I am not confident that IRI will not fold like in June. the damage being endured is substantial and will take many years to rebuild. we need exit ramps to consolidate gains rather than overplaying our hand.

He is allowed his opinion, it is a discussion forum, after all. We are all wrong at different times. The leader of the free world and the most powerful military in history did not expect Iran to fire missiles at Arab countries, and even he was wrong, lol.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

What you're saying is absolutely correct.
However, unfortunately, those words won't reach the people of the Middle East who have become accustomed to subservience to the United States.
Even in this forum, there are a large number of people who are calling for concessions to the US and for peace. Sadly, the Middle East will forever remain a playground for American politicians, constantly being bombed.

What more Iran can do that it is not already doing? Here you have a country that is pummeled with B-52s, B1s, B2s, F-35s, F-15s, and F-16s, and their resistance has so far rebelled the regime change efforts. So what is the patriotism that you're after?

Besides, with the exception of Shia Arabs in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, do you have anyone else coming to its aid?