Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[FUB]

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think Israel would rather prefer a takeover by the reformists, if regime change is not possible in the near future.

If you look at the people they have assassinated so far, nearly all of them were hardliners except for a few cases like Larijani and Shamkhani. I think Larijani and Shamkhani were assassinated due to their extensive influence in the system, not because they were hardliners. No major reformist figure has ever been touched by these bombings. Zarif, Rohani, Khatami, Pezeshkian, they're all safe without a scratch.

I still think that Israel will try regime change again and again and again until it happens and if Iran signs a bad peace deal with the US, it will be the end of the Islamic Republic.

If you remember, one of my initial predictions was that Iran and the US will fight for a month without a winner, then the IR will accept a ceasefire like the 12-day war, then the US will increase its economic pressure on Iran and have another go at it a few months later. We will enter a cycle of war + economic pressure + internal instability until the system collapses.

Abdolrahim Mousavi --> Ahmad Vahidi
Ali Larijani --> Mohammad Zolghadr
Amir Ali Hajizadeh --> Majid Mousavi
Ali Khamenei --> Mojtaba Khamenei
Ali Shamkhani --> Saeed Jalili

the reformists are not killed because they are not important or powerful enough to reach a deal with the US. while a pragmatic king maker like Larijani would be. everyone killed is replaced by someone more hardline.

as long as IRI remains opposed to a full deal with the US, Israel retains freedom of action to some degree. If a pragmatic unifying actor manages to compromise and reach a real detente with the US, suddenly Israel loses the support of the US to act against Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

Abdolrahim Mousavi --> Ahmad Vahidi
Ali Larijani --> Mohammad Zolghadr
Amir Ali Hajizadeh --> Majid Mousavi
Ali Khamenei --> Mojtaba Khamenei
Ali Shamkhani --> Saeed Jalili

the reformists are not killed because they are not important or powerful enough to reach a deal with the US. while a pragmatic king maker like Larijani would be. everyone killed is replaced by someone more hardline.

as long as IRI remains opposed to a full deal with the US, Israel retains freedom of action to some degree. If a pragmatic unifying actor manages to compromise and reach a real detente with the US, suddenly Israel loses the support of the US to act against Iran.

Yes, but it was not Israel that chose who should replace whom, right?

 

[MH.Yang]

I'm not following your logic. Killing a Knesset member means that you lack the resolve to resist? What? How did you come up with such a conclusion?

Alright, let me clarify.

He is just a knesset member; he does not represent Israel's military or economic value, so he is a low-value target srategically. Furthermore, if he remains alive, he will continue to make genocidal remarks, which can help Iran gain more political correctness and international support. His existence can also uningry Iranian people and secure their support for the war.

If you kill him with a missile, you will waste a missile and gain nothing more than some venting of anger from people. Some Iranians might be satisfied by this and turn to supporting a ceasefire and negotiations. Moreover, you have not damaged Israel's core interests, and killing a legislator will not affect teasefire and negotiations. Therefore, choosing this target will undoubtedly lead other countries to doubt Iran's resolve to resist aggression.

You still do not understand; if you wish to defeat the United States and Israel, or to achieve victory at a lower cost, you need aid and support. And if you want to receive aid and support, you must prove your determination. No country wants to invest in or help a regime that is ready to give up and surrender at any moment. If the whole world perceives that you will abandon resistance and surrender, those nations originally inclined to support Iran will likely switch to support the United States and Israel for their own interests, joining the aggressors to plunder and divide your wealth. A true diplomatic victory lies in proving your resolve through action, rather than always leaving room for surrender.

I can say with certainty that if Iran resists firmly, Arab countries and Pakistan are very likely to remain neutral, or even provide covert assistance. Howeversoon as Iran shows signs of surrender and capitulation, these countries will inevitably join the camp of the United States and Israel.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes, but it was not Israel that chose who should replace whom, right?

they know that killing these guys will lead to further militarisation and encroachment of power by the IRGC. I am sure Israel has pretty good ideas of who would replace each person, but regardless we know that logically each generation of replacements tend to be more radical than who they replace (we see this everywhere, including with Hezbollah and Hamas).

the 15 point deal reported in the media is not that bad as long as it involves the lifting of all (primary and secondary) US sanctions and full western investment in Iran. and it even preserves our ballistic missiles. we are not enriching anyway, so naturally we will have to give up the HEU and the already destroyed facilities.

 

[TallarnDesertRaider]

These guys should be recruiting gamers to fly the FPVs, all the videos I've seen coming out of them are very early Russia/Ukraine reminiscient, before both sides starting recruiting 20-30 somethings who've played video games for an embarrasingly large amount of their lives up to that point. Also, it seems like there's almost no jamming equipment anywhere in sight - they need many, many of these kinds of FPV drones to be hammering various targets. The radar was a good spot, the helicopters parked as well.

 

[Cash gk]

She is a Mossad operative and is sharing how the Israeli govt views the negotiations. Basically, Kushner and Witkoff proved to be the operative of Israelis.

Changing your negotiating partner at the request of your enemy highlights America's frustration with its efforts to reach a deal with Iran.

Time flies! Just 26 days ago, Iran was offering everything to secure the deal.
Writing history through sacrifice builds an honorable future for generations to come.
Iran has undoubtedly won on the battlefield; now they must succeed at the negotiation table.

 

[ShapurII]

Alright, let me clarify. He is just a knesset member; he does not represent Israel's military or economic value, so he is a low-value target srategically. Furthermore, if he remains alive, he will continue to make genocidal remarks, which can help Iran gain more political correctness and international support. His existence can also uningry Iranian people and secure their support for the war. If you kill him with a missile, you will waste a missile and gain nothing more than some venting of anger from tanians. Some Iranians might be satisfied by this and turn to supporting a ceasefire and negotiations. Moreover, you have not damaged Israel's core interests, and killing a legislator will not affect teasefire and negotiations. Therefore, choosing this target will undoubtedly lead other countries to doubt Iran's resolve to resist aggression.

A PR win is a PR win. It is needed in war. I am still not following how you are reaching that last conclusion based on a cost analysis point of view. Sure, the cost of a missile is expensive but countries spend much more than half a million dollars on PR campaigns.

Also, it's a she. And a Knesset member is still an important figure in the Israeli system. Israel is targeting Iranian scientists for PR campaigns. Just today, they targeted a university professor in electrical engineering to claim they were assassinating key Iranian scientists working in the development of ballistic missiles lol

 

[Immortals]

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

 

[Persian Gulf]

impressive, they hit a radar and a helicopter with 2 FPV drones

they didn't hit the radar directly but it seems they were close enough to damage it

they should fire FPV drones more often ...

 

[Immortals]

Very interesting

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

 

[ShapurII]

they know that killing these guys will lead to further militarisation and encroachment of power by the IRGC. I am sure Israel has pretty good ideas of who would replace each person, but regardless we know that logically each generation of replacements tend to be more radical than who they replace (we see this everywhere, including with Hezbollah and Hamas).

the 15 point deal reported in the media is not that bad as long as it involves the lifting of all (primary and secondary) US sanctions and full western investment in Iran. and it even preserves our ballistic missiles. we are not enriching anyway, so naturally we will have to give up the HEU and the already destroyed facilities.

The problem with that deal is that Iran's obligations under the deal are permanent and non-reversible while the US concessions are easily reversible with a stroke of a pen.

If we give up our HEU, not only there will never be sanctions relief or compensations, but they will try their regime change plans more eagerly than before.

 

[Immortals]