US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[LeGenD]

Remember this is an existential war for Iran, they have everything to sacrifice and everything to gain.

Looks like it. But all in Iran are not on the same page. Many are bashing the Iranian establishment including the IRGC. I saw some accounts on X that show that. There might also be a split in Iranian leadership, some call for dialogue, others reject them at least in public. It remains to be seen who will blink. There is internet blackout there and public messaging does not necessarily reflect the sentiment on the ground in all areas.

 

[_Arabia_]

My prediction for what it is worth:

This war will not last for much longer than 4-6 weeks at the current intensity rate given the widespread destruction of Iranian military infrastructure and industrial infrastructure.

Only exception is that Israel will go rogue (not listen to US commands) and directly attack Iranian oil and gas infrastructure (which can easily be destroyed) or worse target the Bushehr nuclear power plant. In return Iran, if they have the capability by then, would try to destroy/damage regional oil and gas infrastructure (they can only do that potentially in the GCC - not in US proper or Israel - most likely) which would most likely cause a financial crisis and completely end the Iranian regime as they would have no sources of income to rebuilt their country.

The GCC has 7 trillions of USD in sovereign wealth funds alone - let alone an economy 10-15 times larger (combined). As well as access to the world and world economies (no sanctions) that would help wit the rebuilding of the oil and gas infrastructure.

Such a thing would also directly result in the GCC actively entering the war in an attack mode (KSA alone has 400 potent fighter jets - in comparison the US has 1800 - most by far in the world) and 1000's of ballistic missiles that on average are much more powerful than the Iranian versions (much longer missile ranges and much larger warheads).

Israel and the US will force upon the Iranian regime a Venezuela like scenario if the Iranian regime does not capitulate beforehand.

US could launch a limited land invasion of South Iran to force the reopening (completely) of the Strait of Hormuz (Iran's greatest playing card - geography at play here and water currents etc. which are outside of the control of any war party). Not sure how successful or effective that would be.

Israel or the US, if this drags out and the world economy gets massively affected, could also tactical nukes to end the Iranian regime in a more permanent manner. I am afraid that Israel could likely escape that relatively scot-free. It would open a massive pandora box that nobody would like to see in the world.

The main problem with all of this is that the US and Israel really have no other choices than to either remove the Iranian regime or severely cripple them or cause enough of damage to make Iran more of a failed state in order to cause a local revolt of the regime. This could even lead to a balkanization process - many such candidates within Iran itself given the ethnic and regional diversity. Main candidates are the Kurds and Baloch. All with active separatist movements.

So I am afraid that we might see another repeat in the next 6-12 months. And another repeat for each new year. Until the prospect/threat of Iranian nuclear weapons ends decisively.

Because if the US and Israel does not remove the Iranian regime decisively - that very same regime will race towards nuclear weapons if they are not completely retarded. To guarantee their survival. In such a case the Iranian people will likely be condemned to perpetual rule by the Iranian regime and another North Korea in the Middle East.

Which again would start a nuclear arms race in the region.

In short - I don't see many positive outcomes left for Iran or the region. Unless the Iranian regime is decisively defeated and a new regime emerges with a clean page with everyone involved - regional countries, the US and even Israel.

In such a case - Iran might even benefit from this conflict long-term. As It would open up for the world and Arabs, West, Israel/Jews alike would pour massive amounts of money into Iran to rebuild the country while earning a lot of money in the process. Such a new Iran would likely also become an ally of the West, Israel and Arabs again like prior to 1979. Most Iranians would be supporting this as well as the livelihood of the average Iranian (which most ordinary people care most about - not some geopolitics) would improve massively. It would most likely also help resolve many tensions and conflicts in the region. Most ironically it would also give less of an impetus for Iranian minorities to revolt and seek succession. Why would some Kurds or Baloch want their own country - likely much less economically attractive for the average Kurd and Baloch, if they can remain a part of a much stronger (economically) Iran with more rights for them as well?

Most importantly all the focus would be on Israel and Palestine as well. Israel would not be able to hide behind Iran and its proxies etc. in the region or other regional conflicts.

Shia Arabs within the Arab world would also have no patron and would stop (minority of them) act like fifth columns and their proxies, that have helped destroy/damage numerous Arab countries, would also end. Hence it would force locals to sign long-lasting peace deals and work for the betterment of their countries.

In general I see no loses for the region if the Iranian regime is removed or severely reformed. Mostly only positives for most regional parties involved. The biggest losers will be Israel and the regional terrorist proxies.

 

[2ndstrike]

The coalition constantly moves their goal post. From the initial 4-day air campaign that would force a change in Iranian regime, destruction of Iranian's missiles and drones launch capability, destruction of Iranian Navy, recovery of 60% HEU, strait of Hormuz not under closure, to now the war will see no definitive end date; this shows you the level of their confident got destroyed completely from their initial goal. We are at the 30th day of the war and Iranian regime is still intact despite 100% of their leadership was wiped out, Iran is still firing ballistic missiles and drones for sports from the same bases that were hit a million times and hitting back at the coalition's high-valued targets, Iran is still retaining the 60% HEU, the strait is closed, Iranian Navy submarine fleet and speed boat is still intact, Iranian naval coastal anti-ship defense is still intact, Iranian ground forces remain intact, no Iranian protest on the street like in January to support the coalition bombing of their own country. Militarily and politically speaking, the coalition fails miserably despite doing a sneak attack on Iran

 

[LeGenD]

One should also take lessons from what Israel did v Hamas - their so-called objectives to free the hostages never happened even after flattening all of Gaza. The US had a war with the houthis for 1 month and trumpy backed down, he said it himself they can take a beating. Iran has taken a hell of a beating and its in no mood for diplomacy, what does that tell you? they are ready for a long drawn out war.

Look at Iranian land its full of mountains, there is lots of places small guerrilla teams can hide, look at what Hezbollah is doing to Israel and the US will have no way near the number of troops in Iran to make a real dent. Holding some islands or the strait itself is not an objective they can achieve for long, they will end up withdrawing with their tales between their legs, mark my words.

They recovered all hostages in time (dead or alive), Gaza had to pay a very heavy price for that. Hamas members are still facing attacks and parts of Gaza are still under Israeli occupation and control. There is a push for a new setup there.

Hezbollah was very powerful under Hassan Nasrallah but the IDF significantly degraded them in the previous campaign. They are still putting up a fight in Southern Lebanon but suffering more losses and retreating. The IDF have reached Litani river in record time:

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The campaign will continue for a while (2 - 6 months?), but Hezbollah is unlikely to prevail. Regime change in Syria was a well-calculated move, it is helping cutting off Iran - Hezbollah supply lines as Jolani setup have no interest in supporting Hezbollah.

 

[EugeneP]

My prediction for what it is worth:

This war will not last for much longer than 4-6 weeks at the current intensity rate given the widespread destruction of Iranian military infrastructure and industrial infrastructure.

Why did this logic not work for the 2003 Iraq war?

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[Waz]

I think any ground invasion is just a feign move to get Iran to move the best of its ground forces to a certain area only to be ambushed from the air.

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"Highway of Death" Aerial Footage - Gulf War​

This was Iraqi forces trying to leave, the Iranians are on home ground. Their underground tunnel networks are vast and can hide armies in there. This is going to be very drawn out.
US forces will stop at coastal regions I believe.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

This was Iraqi forces trying to leave, the Iranians are on home ground. Their underground tunnel networks are vast and can hide armies in there. This is going to be very drawn out.
US forces will stop at coastal regions I believe.

They have plenty of B-52's waiting to carpet bomb something.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Folks, do yourselves a favor and re-familiarize yourselves with the opening post. In case some of you hadn't noticed, the other mods as well as admins monitoring as well.

 

[hussain0216]

The coalition constantly moves their goal post. From the initial 4-day air campaign that would force a change in Iranian regime, destruction of Iranian's missiles and drones launch capability, destruction of Iranian Navy, recovery of 60% HEU, strait of Hormuz not under closure, to now the war will see no definitive end date; this shows you the level of their confident got destroyed completely from their initial goal. We are at the 30th day of the war and Iranian regime is still intact despite 100% of their leadership was wiped out, Iran is still firing ballistic missiles and drones for sports from the same bases that were hit a million times and hitting back at the coalition's high-valued targets, Iran is still retaining the 60% HEU, the strait is closed, Iranian Navy submarine fleet and speed boat is still intact, Iranian naval coastal anti-ship defense is still intact, Iranian ground forces remain intact, no Iranian protest on the street like in January to support the coalition bombing of their own country. Militarily and politically speaking, the coalition fails miserably despite doing a sneak attack on Iran

Iranian regime won't fall

Iran will keep a tight grip on the Hormuz

And will continue resisting and fighting back

The petroyuan will increase at the cost of the dollar

U.S bases will be pull back and try to establish in Israel

The GCC will be forced to comply with Iranian security arrangements


Multiple states of the middle east and beyond, especially the big powers will start to expand cooperation outside of distrusted U.S



See the bigger picture

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[AZ_HighCountry]

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Been discussed as early as 2 or 3 days ago now.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Iranian regime won't fall

Iran will keep a tight grip on the Hormuz

And will continue resisting and fighting back

The petroyuan will increase at the cost of the dollar

U.S bases will be pull back and try to establish in Israel

The GCC will be forced to comply with Iranian security arrangements


Multiple states of the middle east and beyond, especially the big powers will start to expand cooperation outside of distrusted U.S



See the bigger picture

Yeah, that’s total wishcasting. US relations with Gulf nations will only grow stronger from here, especially as Iran has crucified itself by attacking nearly all its neighbors.

The Iranians are now weaker than they’ve ever been and ground operations against Iran look imminent.

The regime may survive, but they are effectively defeated as they’re military, industries, and economy are destroyed.

 

[j_hungary]

So America has the objective to completely stop Iran's Ballistic & Missile programs :
First phase was to bomb the existing infrastructure and stocks of these assets. By the looks of it, US & Isr military have largely achieved it with minimal military losses

Next phase is to force Iran to agree that it will not rebuild those assets.
For achieving this, they are pursuing ground invasion.

I remember reading one of your posts on old pdf where you claimed that US will capture some iranian coastal territory/city of Iran, intead of capturing whole Iran and from that position of strength, will negotiate with govt in Tehran to accept its terms.

And this is exactly what is happening. What do you feel about this plan here in 2026.

First of all, it's not hard to understand the core issue here, the Tehran government is not jiving with the United States, so unless either side gives, the only way the US is going to achieve any paper objective is a regime change, and as I said before, including in the old forum, the ONLY way to do that is a ground invasion, and I don't remember what I said before (the post that you quote) but I think that align with my current view that you cant or it's unnecessary to invade the whole of Iran if you want to force an agreement.

But........

If you want to do that, it's a full on campaign, not just with 2 MEU and half of an Airborne division, yes, you can invade an island, but that will not be the end of it, and you would also need to invade Iranian coastline, because that is the only way to stop Iranian from harrasing vessel in the strait, can you do that with 5000 marine + 1000 Airborne, that's another matter

On the other hand, this is not the right time nor space to do it, because Trump didn't think of any possible consequence long lead into this war, there are a couple of steps that you need to make before any war that have a wide range of consequences. And all of them he missed, namely

1.)Preparation Stage
2.)Pre-position Stage
3.)Risk Calculation

1. mean build up, even with a smaller ops like Venezuela, there is a build up over 2 or 3 months prior, moving the Carrier Group into Venezuela Coast, moving the command post to Puerto Rico, and so on, you can literally see something is going on

2. mean moving the piece for the operation, none were done here, and you can see it during the Venezuela thing

3. mean how you can calculate the risk, he obviously did not do this here, otherwise he would have expected the fuel price to go up, because you don't need a political advisor for you to know if you bomb Iran, they are going to close the strait, just because they didn't last time does not mean it's going to be the same this time. He should have had some measure in place ready to go immediately after he bombed Iran.

Which is why this is not the time or space to do it.

 

[j_hungary]

If you capture Hormuz straits and solidify your control over it then for all practical purposes you hold all the energy of the region as hostage.... attacking rest of the Iran becomes waste of resources.

You still need to capture the entire coastline of Iran (well, until the bit that cut off by the strait) and until then, the strait is still open to attack, which mean you cant stabilise the situation.