US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Fatman17]

The biggest flaw in your thesis is that Russia is more than eager to build and expand it's direct gas pipelines to China. China is the one that has been holding back on expanding their Russian pipeline capacity in recent years despite Moscows push for it as they try to compensate for the drop of demand from the EU side.

So they can easily get ample supply for all their needs via pipelines from Siberia if really needed for all their natural gas.

Also, China already knows their import of oil is a massive strategic vulnerability, and have been working hard to mitigate that. Their oil demand and import is projected to peak by 2030 and then gradually fall off. They can also always buy more Russian oil if needed if Iran is no longer an option.

Not sure how true or accurate your theory is tbh.

We will find out soon enough. Nothing is % accurate.

 

[j_hungary]

The biggest flaw in your thesis is that Russia is more than eager to build and expand it's direct gas pipelines to China. China is the one that has been holding back on expanding their Russian pipeline capacity in recent years despite Moscows push for it as they try to compensate for the drop of demand from the EU side.

So they can easily get ample supply for all their needs via pipelines from Siberia if really needed for all their natural gas.

Also, China already knows their import of oil is a massive strategic vulnerability, and have been working hard to mitigate that. Their oil demand and import is projected to peak by 2030 and then gradually fall off. They can also always buy more Russian oil if needed if Iran is no longer an option.

Not sure how true or accurate your theory is tbh.

Petrol Dollar is a myth, while it worked in the 1970s because we weren't engaged in that big of economic activities, and oil trade was one of, if not the most traded commodity in the world. Petrol Dollar is important back then, but for today, if we look at World Oil Trade and compare it to Global Payment like SWIFT, you will be able to see the different immediately.

The oil industry as a whole is a 2 to 3 trillion dollar industry annually, and SWIFT made 5 to 6 trillion dollars of USD transactions in a single day. USD, not oil, is actually now the most traded commodity in the world. If you are looking for the Petrol-Dollar demise, the actual demise of fossil fuel as the world is moving into renewable energy is more likely to threaten the Petrol-Dollar Regime than Iran or OPEC switching to settle with something else.

China had already seen this firsthand when the first Gulf War started just as they had their open-door policy, then with the 2008 crash and the 2022 Russian war in Ukraine, they had long diversified their energy portfolio, hitting Iran will not stop China from getting the oil they need

 

[mythbuster]

As received

3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February.

Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance.

The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible.

1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork.

The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40.

Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT.

Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD.

2nd was Syria.

The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean.

The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed.

This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next.

3rd was Venezuela.

In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily.

The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone.

Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to..

4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock.

Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled.

The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States.

If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil.

This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system.

The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency.

The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves.

But the US grand strategy goes deeper..

Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths.

By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale.

The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas.

On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls..

Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy.

Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal.

Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass.

Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years.

Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost.

Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first.

The US is seizing all 3.

That's the way you play it , money is for nothing and chiks for free...

 

[Haz]

Petrol Dollar is a myth, while it worked in the 1970s because we weren't engaged in that big of economic activities, and oil trade was one of, if not the most traded commodity in the world. Petrol Dollar is important back then, but for today, if we look at World Oil Trade and compare it to Global Payment like SWIFT, you will be able to see the different immediately.

The oil industry as a whole is a 2 to 3 trillion dollar industry annually, and SWIFT made 5 to 6 trillion dollars of USD transactions in a single day. USD, not oil, is actually now the most traded commodity in the world. If you are looking for the Petrol-Dollar demise, the actual demise of fossil fuel as the world is moving into renewable energy is more likely to threaten the Petrol-Dollar Regime than Iran or OPEC switching to settle with something else.

China had already seen this firsthand when the first Gulf War started just as they had their open-door policy, then with the 2008 crash and the 2022 Russian war in Ukraine, they had long diversified their energy portfolio, hitting Iran will not stop China from getting the oil they need

Yes, I tend to agree with this view point a lot more. The transition to renewable energy based economies are likely to be the main driver in diminishing the importance of the petro-dollar architecture in the next coupe decades imo.

The USD will remain the world's reserve currency regardless as long as the US is the sole global hegemon that can back it up with force that no one can really match or oppose. The only thing that can threaten that is if China rises to become an equal peer global actor and superpower in 20 years from now as has been their stated goal by 2049, and they're clearly working towards that with their modernization efforts, rapid navy expansion, and development of global support networks.

But they are still in the early stages, there's no guarantee they will achieve that lofty status and the US is acutely aware of this threat and have been reorienting their posture to the indo-pacific theatre to contain them.

 

[mythbuster]

Yes, I tend to agree with this view point a lot more. The transition to renewable energy based economies are likely to be the main driver in diminishing the importance of the petro-dollar architecture in the next coupe decades imo.

The USD will remain the world's reserve currency regardless as long as the US is the sole global hegemon that can back it up with force that no one can really match or oppose. The only thing that can threaten that is if China rises to become an equal peer global actor and superpower in 20 years from now as has been their stated goal by 2049, and they're clearly working towards that with their modernization efforts, rapid navy expansion, and development of global support networks.

But they are still in the early stages, there's no guarantee they will achieve that lofty status and the US is acutely aware of this threat and have been reorienting their posture to the indo-pacific theatre to contain them.

Life's boring without conspiracy theories.. they are always worth a look.

 

[جوبا]

I'm a bit puzzled that Iran with over a thousand missiles in range of US Saudi bases including drones that they have managed to take out US aircraft in the single digits. Even if US is using GPS jamming those missiles still carry gyro guidance. I really did expect more damage because of the proximity of those bases from Iran unlike Israel. Now maybe if Iran struck first but even then when US first hit Iran they went after leadership and not launchers.

Pew pew

 

[جوبا]

Judging from the airframe damage, I don't see that AWACs returning to service.

Russians would be feeling so vindicated seeing this after all the shit talking they had to bear post Operation Spiderweb

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

Petrol Dollar is a myth,

Oh boy!
The only anchor to current monetary system is a myth¿

An upside down world it seems

while it worked in the 1970s because we weren't engaged in that big of economic activities,

It was the get out the jail free card after duping the world on paper dollar and then defaulting on gold obligation. Nixon shock is a myth too?

Economic activity is anchored by petro dollar! Petro dollar literally is the vehicle to create dollar demand globally by mandating economies to purchase their energy in dollar.

and oil trade was one of, if not the most traded commodity in the world.

Oh boy...
Crude oil remains THE greatest traded commodity in the world. It is not just energy but all the plastics, pharmaceuticals, construction, automotive, agriculture, clothing asphalt or name it and it may have by products from petro chemicals that run the global economy.

Petrol Dollar is important back then, but for today, if we look at World Oil Trade and compare it to Global Payment like SWIFT, you will be able to see the different immediately.

Petro dollar is the backbone of global economy generating an excess... a windfall for the vendors. Generating the largest wealth funds in the world... such as Norway, GCC and others That run the whole Petro-dollar recycling... which generates VCs... investments, buy bonds... lend and do infrastructure projects.
The flipside of those states are those who run a deficit to buy dollars in order to buy energy. Run to IMF and other global lenders and cede national wealth through this global petro dollar recycling mechanism.
Making a permanent hierarchy where poor remains poor and wealthy keep getting rich.

In fact nothing even comes close in wealth transfer from poor to wealthy. After oil no global vehicle remains that can mandate economies to use dollar as a conduit. Crashing the cycle!
No amount of leverage, patents, intellectual property rights only usury will do.

The oil industry as a whole is a 2 to 3 trillion dollar industry annually

It is hovering around $7 Trillion and only projected to increase and that is the commodity alone... simple oil and gas it delivers the greatest value add as noted above in other industries.

, and SWIFT made 5 to 6 trillion dollars of USD transactions in a single day. USD, not oil, is actually now the most traded commodity in the world. If you are looking for the Petrol-Dollar demise, the actual demise of fossil fuel as the world is moving into renewable energy is more likely to threaten the Petrol-Dollar Regime than Iran or OPEC switching to settle with something else.

If it was that easy... case in point Iraq who's oil wealth is deposited in NY Fed.

 

[mythbuster]

Oh boy!
The only anchor to current monetary system is a myth¿

An upside down world it seems


It was the get out the jail free card after duping the world on paper dollar and then defaulting on gold obligation. Nixon shock is a myth too?

Economic activity is anchored by petro dollar! Petro dollar literally is the vehicle to create dollar demand globally by mandating economies to purchase their energy in dollar.

Oh boy...
Crude oil remains THE greatest traded commodity in the world. It is not just energy but all the plastics, pharmaceuticals, construction, automotive, agriculture, clothing asphalt or name it and it may have by products from petro chemicals that run the global economy.



Petro dollar is the backbone of global economy generating an excess... a windfall for the vendors. Generating the largest wealth funds in the world... such as Norway, GCC and others That run the whole Petro-dollar recycling... which generates VCs... investments, buy bonds... lend and do infrastructure projects.
The flipside of those states are those who run a deficit to buy dollars in order to buy energy. Run to IMF and other global lenders and cede national wealth through this global petro dollar recycling mechanism.
Making a permanent hierarchy where poor remains poor and wealthy keep getting rich.

In fact nothing even comes close in wealth transfer from poor to wealthy. After oil no global vehicle remains that can mandate economies to use dollar as a conduit. Crashing the cycle!
No amount of leverage, patents, intellectual property rights only usury will do.


It is hovering around $7 Trillion and only projected to increase and that is the commodity alone... simple oil and gas it delivers the greatest value add as noted above in other industries.



If it was that easy... case in point Iraq who's oil wealth is deposited in NY Fed.

This is the first ever post of yours that deserves high ratings ..

 

[j_hungary]

Oh boy!
The only anchor to current monetary system is a myth¿

An upside down world it seems


It was the get out the jail free card after duping the world on paper dollar and then defaulting on gold obligation. Nixon shock is a myth too?

Economic activity is anchored by petro dollar! Petro dollar literally is the vehicle to create dollar demand globally by mandating economies to purchase their energy in dollar.

Oh boy...
Crude oil remains THE greatest traded commodity in the world. It is not just energy but all the plastics, pharmaceuticals, construction, automotive, agriculture, clothing asphalt or name it and it may have by products from petro chemicals that run the global economy.



Petro dollar is the backbone of global economy generating an excess... a windfall for the vendors. Generating the largest wealth funds in the world... such as Norway, GCC and others That run the whole Petro-dollar recycling... which generates VCs... investments, buy bonds... lend and do infrastructure projects.
The flipside of those states are those who run a deficit to buy dollars in order to buy energy. Run to IMF and other global lenders and cede national wealth through this global petro dollar recycling mechanism.
Making a permanent hierarchy where poor remains poor and wealthy keep getting rich.

In fact nothing even comes close in wealth transfer from poor to wealthy. After oil no global vehicle remains that can mandate economies to use dollar as a conduit. Crashing the cycle!
No amount of leverage, patents, intellectual property rights only usury will do.


It is hovering around $7 Trillion and only projected to increase and that is the commodity alone... simple oil and gas it delivers the greatest value add as noted above in other industries.



If it was that easy... case in point Iraq who's oil wealth is deposited in NY Fed.

You are free to believe what you want to believe.

I don't have anything to say in this as I don't see anything other than your opinion here, other than agreeing that the current oil and gas industry may be worth 7 or 8 trillion now (Which is still seriously behind the total trade volume), as prices have been expanded around 120% since Feb (It was around $64 a barrel then)

And again, you can look at what SWIFT settles on to see how much oil and gas are actually taking up that space

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Especially this

 

[Fatman17]

You are free to believe what you want to believe.

I don't have anything to say in this as I don't see anything other than your opinion here, other than agreeing that the current oil and gas industry may be worth 7 or 8 trillion now (Which is still seriously behind the total trade volume), as prices have been expanded around 120% since Feb (It was around $64 a barrel then)

And again, you can look at what SWIFT settles on to see how much oil and gas are actually taking up that space

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Especially this

View attachment 189269

Offtopic perhaps

 

[j_hungary]

Yes, I tend to agree with this view point a lot more. The transition to renewable energy based economies are likely to be the main driver in diminishing the importance of the petro-dollar architecture in the next coupe decades imo.

The USD will remain the world's reserve currency regardless as long as the US is the sole global hegemon that can back it up with force that no one can really match or oppose. The only thing that can threaten that is if China rises to become an equal peer global actor and superpower in 20 years from now as has been their stated goal by 2049, and they're clearly working towards that with their modernization efforts, rapid navy expansion, and development of global support networks.

But they are still in the early stages, there's no guarantee they will achieve that lofty status and the US is acutely aware of this threat and have been reorienting their posture to the indo-pacific theatre to contain them.

Yes, renewable energy had been taking a serious toll on Petrol Dollar a lot more than China being an emerging market for FINTECH, well, you can argue the fact that China is driving the renewable development is to sever themselves from this, but at the same time, you can't replace the currency that being used to settle trade daily, that is the issue.

World Trade alone accounts for 22.9 trillion in 2024

The Observatory of Economic Complexity

The world's leading data visualization tool for international trade data.

oec.world

With other fintech products, you can't really shake off the USD when they are roughly 53% of the world reserve, which means even if you can bypass all the Petrol Dolla,r you still need to go over the world trade threshold, and China can't really replace all thoscurrenciescy because they wanted their money to low to take the advantage of export.

On the other hand, I am not sure the world would trust the RMB enough to put them in their federal/central bank unless China changes its monetary policy. Which means for China, the only thing that they can do to fend off the damage from energy is to try to balance the energy import.

Which is why I don't think Trump had China in mind when he started this war.

 

[j_hungary]

Offtopic perhaps

Well, I don't know, but quite a lot of people would say Trump is doing this to preserve the Petrol Dollar status. I am just trying to explain how the Petrol Dollar works. I see that as debunking a myth for this war. Was it off topic? It's up to you

 

[Ali_Baba]

I was told the US couldn’t penetrate the missile cities. Time to reassess

A) looks like an ammunition dump was destroyed given the size and type of cook off, as you would not see that type of patter or secondary explosions from tunnels in mountains.

B) let’s assume that it is true, so it took 1 month to take out a part of a base? There are about 130 more bases to go ….

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

believe

There is no believe here... these are cold hard facts ... where that money anchors global economy and engine for stock markets and their valuations and further market capitalisation owe both seed money, later stock buy-ins and availability of credit due to purchase of bonds.

Nothing else compares... everything else is either a stand alone or nowhere near as critical. The sovereign wealth funds draw a distinct picture of both oil and gas producers/sellers and value-add on states cornering all of global dollars that find there way back into stocks and bonds... rinse and repeat.