US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Fatman17]

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[Davey Crockett]

1973 War Powers Act

Time Limit: Troops must be withdrawn within 60 days (plus a 30-day extension) unless Congress declares war, authorizes the force, or extends the deadline.

April 29th, give or take a day, will be the deadline for Congress to act. Failure to act will require Trump to begin withdrawing.

 

[SolarWarden]

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[mythbuster]

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Damn , these guys should have attempted coup de ETA to bring down orange regime.

 

[SolarWarden]

Damn , these guys should have attempted coup de ETA to bring down orange regime.

It would have failed so badly that the consequences of the failed coup would have the opposite effect. Orangeman would have declared Martial Law becoming more powerful than ever like an orange Sith lord.

 

[Watandar]

1973 War Powers Act

Time Limit: Troops must be withdrawn within 60 days (plus a 30-day extension) unless Congress declares war, authorizes the force, or extends the deadline.

April 29th, give or take a day, will be the deadline for Congress to act. Failure to act will require Trump to begin withdrawing.

Trump and GOP can simply ignore this law like they have been ignoring many other laws. Who is going to hold Trump accountable ? With extensive gerrymandering and the reduction of politics to a team sport, it's hard to hold legislators accountable as well. Welcome to illiberal democracy.

 

[SaadH]

Yeah, no. He's an Annapolis graduate to boot.

I know a few SF types including a SEAL. Those guys are not stupid.

Of course they all fail up, JD Vance an equally low IQ figure is a Yale law graduate...white privilege is the OG DEI and moronic character like this officer and JD Vance are a testament to this. These anointed people get all the doors opened for them just because they are all tall white males.

 

[EugeneP]

require Trump to begin withdrawing.

How will it be enforced? That has been the 'Bell the Cat' part of WPA. WPA has never been tested in courts in over five decades of its existence, proving it is a dead letter law.

 

[Davey Crockett]

1973 War Powers Act

Time Limit: Troops must be withdrawn within 60 days (plus a 30-day extension) unless Congress declares war, authorizes the force, or extends the deadline.

April 29th, give or take a day, will be the deadline for Congress to act. Failure to act will require Trump to begin withdrawing.

What does the War Powers Act do?​

What the war powers act does: 48-hour reports and the 60/30 timeline

A clear explainer of the war powers act, its 48-hour reporting duty and 60/30 withdrawal timeline, and where legal and political questions remain.

michaelcarbonara.com

 

[Serendipity]

Seems like he is also using the war to purge the old guard. This may be a preparation for a more aligned military. Also destroying infrastructure is actually about disrupting supply lines against a ground war. If you ignore everything Trump has been saying and look at the US strategy so far it has been to soften up ground logistics and reduce capacity for agile response. If there is a ground invasion I suspect the plan will be to occupy territory and entrench. With overwhelming air superiority favoring the US the plan would be to create an assymetric attrition dynamic. What protects Iran from this is their missile and drone capacity that neutralizes this approach. I am pretty sure plans of occupying the underground missile cities to offset this risk have been floated. Regardless ground troops will not move in until missile strike capacity has been significantly neutralized.

 

[j_hungary]

At the rate we are going, if the conflict ends now, you're looking at a minimum of one year before normalization returns to what it was before this conflict. With shocks still within the system.

The main question will be what next? As the supply chains have been exposed, it's showing that just-in-time inventory isn't sustainable. I do feel the small- to mid-size firms will not have the liquidity to build up their raw material base to weather another conflict, as this one is burning through their reserves at a high price point.

East Asian SME liquidity was already tightening before the conflict due to higher borrowing costs, lower cash flow, and dependence on short-term financing; this was already causing a shrinking financial cushion in East Asian markets. I want to mention that this was while they were still recovering from the COVID impact & navigating the impact of Trump's tariffs and supply chain shifts.

At what point does the ADB step in?

Countries like Japan had a very vast system of reserve, which allows them to hold on to longer (IIRC their reserve level is well over 2 years). A JIT system for important strategic resources is known not to be working after COVID, but people weren't waking up to the fact that unless you have a buffer stock, you cannot cope with market demand if things like this happen.

What is most likely next is going back to the post-COVID-2022 environment, where people fight for resources and squeeze our supply chain further, and spike up the cost. People underestimate how this Strait of hormuz fall out, it double the bunker fuel price and almost double kerosene (I think it's around 72% hike), which means now they are doing a fuel surcharge even if your shipping did not even go in the area. I recently shipped a 40 ft container from China to California, and they are asking for a $550 surcharge, considering the regular shipment alone only costs around $2700.

As for ADB? I don't know if money would help at this point, you can try to sustain it with money but only if there are end in sight, IF we are sure this is going to be resolved in the next 2 or 3 week, we can calculate the damage and try to hold it out with money, but if there are no end in sight, how do you sustain yourselves?

 

[j_hungary]

Don't try to talk common sense. Have a couple people in here who seem to think things are "just fine".

Well.......if you are a billionaire. things are "just fine" lol, hell, may even be what you actually wanted.

But for us? No....

 

[KingQamaR]

what's not looking good?

This will go down in history as the second worst planned "military special operation" after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And wow, wow. the US just admitted it is a cluster F and is running away after destroying the world economy. leaving the world answerable to Iran and oil prices that are out of control.

 

[KingQamaR]

well then start a new thread with it....

What a joke
Greece

 

[RescueRanger]

I’m From the U.K. . I struggle with F22 poster MAGA. Most analyst including American ones on news are reporting a balanced and informative summary of the current situation its not looking good for US.

It is okay this thread is based around US perspectives. Just like you have nationalist brovado in Iran thread, you will have the same here.