Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

So on one hand you have ceasefire, and on the other they are preventing Iran from replenishing its stockpile in the event of ceasefire failure to defend itself. All while US is bringing in more interceptors and other military assets from Indo Pacific.

This does not have good vibes.
This is a direct consequence of Mullah and the reformers' foolish acceptance of a ceasefire. There is no reason to prevent Iran from rearming other than with the intention of invading again in the future. Iran is now in the same position as Iraq was in the Gulf War. The goal of Israel and the United States has consistently been the destruction of Iran, and nuclear weapons are merely a pretext; giving up uranium enrichment will only accelerate the invasion.
 
The surrenderists in Iran were too cowardly in Trump's 2025 attack, which made Trump believe that Iran still has a lot of room for retreat, leading to more intense pressure and war. Meanwhile, Iran's actions have also caused many potential allies to lose trust in Iran.
All the reports are saying it was Chinese pressure that got Iran to agree to this. I expect their UN veto relied on Iran agreeing.
 
JD Vance says that Pezeshkian will be with him too.
The whole thing is like stabbing our armed forces in the back.

Sir - relax.

2 weeks is not enough time for there to be much of a material advantage to either USA or Israel if this starts again. No new interceptors can be manufactured in that time, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics at all ( just look at the C17 flights RescueRanger has been posting).

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.

The Straits can be closed in two minutes flat.

Lets see how the talks go, if they fail, then the bloodshed will be back on again. I don't think Trump wants to get trapped into war again, so the advantage rests with Iran to extract as much as it can. Pakistan will help in this regard as Pakistan "understands" the USA far better than Iran does.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay. I don't see Iran giving up their only means of defence either, or their allies. In all likelihood it will be JCPOA with some extra trimmings at most.

Also, It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking so far. If the IRGC can come with a game plan and target list to destroy key infrastructure in the 2 weeks, then all the better ?

I could go on.. I was the same thought/mind as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard where I think i echoed what you said. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay as well, with the possibility of a real peace deal.
 
No new interceptors can be manufactured, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics.
Why do you assume it has to be manufactured?

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.
Aircrew will have a rest. US amphibious ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Their troops will be prepared for a ground invasion of Iran. Their CSGs will get closer to the Arabian Sea. Markets are recovering already. An oil/energy crisis has been avoided.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay.
There is not. Iran has no cards to use in these negotiations except for our uranium stockpile, which they want to remove from our territory. Iran can go to Islamabad, sign its surrender and return home and frame it as a victory.

It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking.
They had 20 years to do that, if not more. They had 9 months to do that after the June war. 2 more weeks will change nothing.

I could go on.. I was the same thought as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay.
I see none honestly.
 
All the reports are saying it was Chinese pressure that got Iran to agree to this. I expect their UN veto relied on Iran agreeing.
Firstly, China does not have such significant influence over Iran, otherwise President Laissey would not have died. Secondly, Russia also has veto power. Thirdly, the ceasefire in Iran is not in line with China's interests.
 
Sir - relax.

2 weeks is not enough time for there to be much of a material advantage to either USA or Israel if this starts again. No new interceptors can be manufactured in that time, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics at all ( just look at the C17 flights RescueRanger has been posting).

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.

The Straits can be closed in two minutes flat.

Lets see how the talks go, if they fail, then the bloodshed will be back on again. I don't think Trump wants to get trapped into war again, so the advantage rests with Iran to extract as much as it can. Pakistan will help in this regard as Pakistan "understands" the USA far better than Iran does.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay. I don't see Iran giving up their only means of defence either, or their allies. In all likelihood it will be JCPOA with some extra trimmings at most.

Also, It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking so far. If the IRGC can come with a game plan and target list to destroy key infrastructure in the 2 weeks, then all the better ?

I could go on.. I was the same thought/mind as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard where I think i echoed what you said. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay as well, with the possibility of a real peace deal.
Pakistan has basically given trump a face saving offramp, which trump even before was longing for hence desperate attempts.
 
Sir - relax.

2 weeks is not enough time for there to be much of a material advantage to either USA or Israel if this starts again. No new interceptors can be manufactured, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics.

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.

The Straits can be closed in two minutes flat.

Lets see how the talks go, if they fail, then the bloodshed will be back on again.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay.

It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking.

I could go on.. I was the same thought as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay.
Iran has all its leverage intact:
-Hormuz
-Bab al Mandeb
-Destruction of regional energy facilities

They are already saying that the damage to the regional energy infrastructure will take years to be repaired and fully functional like in the past.

And indeed 2 weeks is not enough to change the situation, actually it benefits Iran more in logistical sense if the war restarts in 2 weeks.

Invasion of Iran will become more difficult because we're approaching summer heat.

Another thing is that many countries are angry at US and Israel, restarting the war AGAIN will make the world really curse USA and Israel.

Meanwhile investment climate in Persian Gulf is not secure as long as there is no final agreement between Iran and USA.

That's why my conclusion is that the ceasefire itself increases the leverage for Iran.
 

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