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Allow me to throw in my two cents.....Iran is like a headless chicken right now , she has no cards left to play and Trump holds all the trump cards... blockade by USA has nullified the Iranian Hormuz card... routes from Pakistan will help, to some extent , with the imports, however , you need dollars or yuan to import...if you don't export you got no Forex funds to import.....Iran is neither Vietnam or Korea , it has no backing of any major country let alone a super power ... verbal support or using veto in favour of Iran counts to nothing..... it's matter of days not weeks for Iran to sign a deal on the USA terms...... other than that INDIA and IRAN are super powers.Following media for last few days and here is what I understand.
Pakistani credible sources with apparently inside information like Asma Shirazi and Annas Malik saying there will be eventually an agreement and it will happen in Islamabad. Mr. Araghchi's diplomatic moves with twice visits to Pakistan, one to Moscow and one to Muscat suggest fine tuning going on where Iran is still giving Pakistan the 'sole mediator' role and there is likely to be another Islamabad Talks.
Pakistan has opened land trade routes to/from Iran and this is a result of the recent major diplomatic understandings between the two countries. It is a significant move and even a credible Western analyst also pointed toward this relatively unreported move by Pakistan.
Carpet bombing of Iran will not accomplish anything and will come with a lot of risks to the attackers too.
Iran will be able to withstand the affects of the Blockade longer than many countries. Also, sustaining the naval Blockade is a tiring, costly business for the Americans.
it's matter of days not weeks for Iran to sign a deal on the USA terms..
.if you don't export you got no Forex funds to import.....Iran is neither Vietnam or Korea , it has no backing of any major country let alone a super power ... verbal support or using veto in favour of Iran counts to nothing..... it's matter of days not weeks for Iran to sign a deal on the USA terms......
Let's not get into the nitty gritty of the deal , neither you nor I are in the loop.... there's a bottom line...no nukes or ability to have nukes.....no proxies.....cap on missile program , how far it goes? Not clear...... Hormuz was not an issue then and it's not an issue now... it's nothing more than media and fanboys hype.Would you care to elaborate what would be the US Terms? Or if/when whatever agreement is reached you'd say something like 'it is all hidden'.
AFAIK, the deal breaker in the Oman talks were the Iranian long range missiles. Hormuz was not even an issue then and Iran is likely to compromise on that. Even the fissile material were very negotiable in the Oman talks and I don't see them becoming an obstacle in the Islamabad Talks.
So, it will be a 'give and take' but as long as Iran doesn't agree with the original demand as in the Oman talks like the American experts going into Iran to monitor and dismantle the Iranian missile program, it will not be on American terms!
Let's not get into the nitty gritty of the deal , neither you nor I are in the loop.... there's a bottom line...no nukes or ability to have nukes.....no proxies.....cap on missile program , how far it goes? Not clear...... Hormuz was not an issue then and it's not an issue now... it's nothing more than media and fanboys hype.
Bro , Iran , for all practical purposes , is defanged.....long range missiles , without nukes, are not some wonder weapon .... they are too expensive to be used as an artillery in any meaningful ways.....Actually, what you dismiss as 'nitty gritty' was the main point where the Oman talks had collapsed just before this war: The issue of the Iranian missiles. And it made sense for the Iranians to not compromise on that because, after the militias around Israel were greatly diminished, the missiles were the main deterrence Iran had left with.
Iran did not compromise then and will not compromise on the missiles in case of if/when there is a deal. Because doing so would be equal to defanging itself, which would make a future Israeli attack easier and perhaps even inevitable.
If/when there is any agreement then let me know if Iran has accepted to the Israeli demand of the Americans going into Iran and dismantling them and monitoring them. No hiding behind 'it is hidden' in the talks.
Anyway, let see first if there is any agreement or not. I am more hopeful about at least some interim agreement based on a 'give and take' than on another round of full scale war.
Bro , Iran , for all practical purposes , is defanged.....long range missiles , without nukes, are not some wonder weapon .... they are too expensive to be used as an artillery in any meaningful ways.....
If Iran complies with the demands Israel has no reason/justification to attack Iran ....we the incompetent Muslims have created the Bogie of Israel as if she is some kind of of monster that's going to devour the Islamic world....my analysis is that within couple of years Palestinian will get statehood and there will be a lasting peace between Arabs and Israelis .No. They are not defanged as long as they can launch even 5 missiles a day capable of reaching Tel Aviv. In the recent conflict, despite all the American forces trying to stop the Iranian missiles, life in Tel Aviv was brought to a standstill for many days. And that's why the Israelis wanted the removal of the missiles during the Oman talks.
It is up to you to come to your own conclusions, I absolutely don't see Iranians giving up or even scaling down their long range missiles unless there is a regime change in Iran itself. Why am so confident in saying that? Because without the missiles which would deter an Israeli attack, Iran would be a sitting duck like several other regional countries are.
PS. In case of an agreement, we may see Iranians strutting around displaying their missiles in public. A cheap display of defiance but that's what it seems like the Middle Eastern countries are.
If Iran complies with the demands Israel has no reason/justification to attack Iran ....we the incompetent Muslims have created the Bogie of Israel as if she is some kind of of monster that's going to devour the Islamic world....my analysis is that within couple of years Palestinian will get statehood and there will be a lasting peace between Arabs and Israelis .
Yea man , I work for Mossad ..I can introduce to the area manager , they pay well.Israel is not some 'bogie'. It has grabbed more and more land and will seek any fertile land in its vicinity as long as there are enough Israelis to occupy those lands. I am speaking facts. As for the Palestinian state, it is possibility along the lines of some Bantustan but nothing more than that, even if that.
But now I see why you post like you do about this war.
my analysis is that within couple of years Palestinian will get statehood and there will be a lasting peace between Arabs and Israelis .
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